Arafat On The Ropes

The Palestinian cabinet's forced resignation yesterday is a major setback for Yasir Arafat.  Writing in Ha'aretz today, Danny Rubinstein, a long-time Arafat watcher, writes that "this is the first time in Arafat's political career" that he has been so resoundingly rebuffed.  "He had always been able to gather support by making promises or distributing money and appointments until a compromise was found.  This time he failed."

The cabinet resigned to avoid rejection by the Palestinian Legislative Council.  It had become increasingly clear in recent days that the PLC would support a "no confidence" vote against the Arafat cabinet.  Arafat supporters argued that with new elections set there was no need for a new cabinet; changes would come after January.  Nobody was buying.

"The ministers consulted each other and decided for the benefit of the Palestinian people to submit our resignations to President Arafat to enable him to form a new cabinet and to submit it to the legislature," Saeb Erekat said.  In other words, the ministers jumped before they were pushed.

Arafat now has two weeks to present a new cabinet to the legislature.  That means creating a list of ministers who are not regarded by the legislators as corrupt or incompetent.  In June Arafat did appoint five new ministers generally regarded as free of corruption but the PLC is now looking for a clean sweep in advance of elections.

"This is a crisis of trust," said Salah Taameri of Arafat's Fatah movement.  It is also the most serious challenge to Arafat's leadership since he returned from exile in Tunisia following the signing of the Oslo Accords.

Yesterday's developments are a clear indication that Palestine's democracy movement is stirring, but this does not necessarily represent a victory for those forces which seek an accommodation with Israel.  According to Ha'aretz, the "opposition to the cabinet was sparked by the belief that the new cabinet ministers named in a June reshuffle, specifically recently appointed Interior Minister Abdel Razak Yehiyeh, were nominated as a result of Israeli and U.S. pressure."  Yehiyeh also happens to be increasingly vocal in his calls for Palestinians to end the intifada and get back to the negotiating table.

Arafat's possible eclipse can only have a salutary effect on the diplomatic process.  Nevertheless, the fact that some reformers and democracy advocates seem more skeptical about peace with Israel than some of the old guard is troubling.  It raises the concern that democratic elections in the West Bank and Gaza could produce the worst-case scenario of Islamic extremists and terror supporters elected through a free and fair democratic process.  What happens then?  For right now, however, the events in Ramallah are worth cheering about.

The Cabinet upheaval overshadowed Arafat's disappointing speech to the PLC on Monday.  In a speech characterized by Yediot Achronoth as "same old, same old," Arafat refused to flatly condemn terrorism even though earlier drafts of the speech did precisely that.  Writing in Yediot, Roni Shaked reported: "His speech, which was aimed mostly at a Western audience, did not betoken a change in policy or strategy.  Arafat took scrupulous care to condemn terrorism only inside the Green Line.  He announced the Palestinians' willingness to join an international struggle against terrorism - provided this was implemented within the confines of international law and the UN.  International law, incidentally, confers legitimacy on a struggle against occupation. . .  He cast all blame for the war on Israel.  He called on his people in the territories and outside to unite and to show endurance and patience.  Those are code words that are understood by every Palestinian to mean: the struggle continues."

Arafat looked shaky and weak, and spoke haltingly and sometimes incoherently.  He left the impression of a man who was near the end of his tenure on the world stage which is, of course, precisely what George Bush and Ariel Sharon are hoping for.

In his speech, Arafat made a reference to stepping aside, but he said it jokingly, with a laugh that confused more than a few journalists and observers.  He has not yet addressed the option of appointing a prime minister to handle day-to-day business while he allows himself to be "kicked upstairs" to a ceremonial role which is strongly favored by the same PLC members who dumped the cabinet.  Some say they will withhold support for Arafat until a prime minister is appointed.

Meanwhile, the Israeli press is reporting that various Palestinian factions are debating the possibility of issuing the much-delayed call for an end to violence.  As usual, factional differences are blocking action while the situation on the ground continues to fester.  The good news from Ramallah this week could mean that we may be getting closer to the time when Palestinians will be represented by a leadership democratically elected and, just possibly, capable of speaking in one voice which will unambiguously call for ending the violence and resuming negotiations toward a two-state solution.

This issue of Forum Fax was edited and produced by Steve Spiegel, MJ Rosenberg, and the staff of Israel Policy Forum, The Washington Policy Center.