Egypt's Mediation

When Kassam rockets pounded into the Israeli town of Sderot on Tuesday, damaging a home, injuring two, and threatening to sabotage the Israel-Hamas cease-fire, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert had just returned from discussions with President Hosni Mubarak in Cairo. Today, after another Kassam fell within Israel's border, Ofer Dekel, Olmert's deputy in charge of Israel's attempted prisoner exchanges, is flying to Cairo, in a signal that Israel is not giving up on the cease-fire, or the possibility of releasing Corporal Gilad Shalit.

Had Israel declared the cease-fire over, it would not have been the first Israel-Hamas truce to end in a blaze of fire. But while many expect that this cease-fire will have the same fate as previous ones, a new variable has been introduced with the potential not only to influence the current negotiating process but also regional involvement in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict: Egypt.

In the last several months, Egypt has played an active and public mediating role in the deal that, besides ending the fire on southern Israel, aspires to free Shalit and to open the border crossings that have kept Gazans hemmed in and lacking basic goods.

Egypt's role may be the major reason the cease-fire has made it this far. According to a Kuwaiti newspaper, Al Qabas (cited by Israel's Keshet news service), Olmert and Mubarak agreed at their meeting in Cairo that Israel would not respond to Tuesday's Islamic Jihad attack and that Hamas would commit to making all the groups abide by the cease-fire.

But Israel did not decide to continue the cease-fire as a favor to Egypt. Yesterday marked exactly two years since the kidnapping of Gilad Shalit, and it has been almost that long since two other soldiers, Eldad Regev and Ehud Goldwasser, were captured by Hezbollah. The Israeli public is currently immersed in an increasingly politicized and emotional debate about the value of life: what price they are willing to pay to secure the release of POWs or the remains of the fallen.

Shalit's release appears crucial to the success of the cease-fire. And, here too, Egypt is the mediator. Israel Radio reported today that over the next few days, Egypt will be mediating a round of talks between Israeli and Hamas representatives in an attempt to conclude the prisoner exchange. Egypt is currently working to finalize which prisoners will be freed and what their fate will be. The argument is over the release of prisoners Israel describes as having 'blood on their hands.' According to a report in the Pan-Arab newspaper Al-Hayat, Egypt, on behalf of Hamas, rejected an Israeli offer to release prisoners with 'blood on their hands' on condition that they do not return the Palestinian territories.

But even if quiet subsists and an Israeli soldier comes home, how long can the cease-fire last if weapons continue to flow into Gaza? Even with the best of intentions-and nobody accuses Hamas or Islamic Jihad of that-isn't it inevitable that the weapons influx will lead to their use?

That is why Israel continues to demand that Egypt intensify its efforts to stop the flow of weapons across its 7.4 mile border with Gaza. Accomplishing this objective has proved challenging since the weapons are not generally coming across a border crossing, but through a series of tunnels.

In a BBC article called, "A Trip Down Gaza's Deadly Tunnels," Paul Martin reported on the hundreds of tunnels that have cropped up since Israel's 2005 Gaza withdrawal in Rafah, a town divided by the Egypt-Gaza border-Palestinian on one end and Egyptian on the other. "The culture of tunneling is so entrenched...in Rafah," Matrin wrote, "that the men's barber shop is called Shaheeds' Saloon-with pictures of dead diggers and tunnellers plastered on the walls and mirrors." Goods ranging from cigarettes to guns are smuggled through Rafah tunnels, with a cut of the proceeds going to Hamas, according to Martin. "But there are also more secret, so-called 'military' tunnels, which are controlled by Hamas' highly disciplined Izzidine al Qassam brigades. No one knows what sort of weaponry goes through there."

The U.S. army is working to help Egypt deal with this problem. In cooperation with Egyptian forces, it recently began testing a tunnel detecting system along the Gaza-Egypt border.

But for Egypt, smuggling is not the only issue that threatens the country at its border. Hamas' breach of the Gaza-Egypt border in January put Mubarak's government in a sensitive position. While the Egyptian public expects its government to help the Palestinians suffering from Israel's closure of their border, Cairo fears that it will be made responsible for Palestinian refugees, especially if they are linked to Hamas.  Already threatened by the popularity of the outlawed Muslim Brotherhood-of which Hamas is an offshoot-the Egyptian government worries about Hamas' effect on the Egyptian public and its own stability.

In short, the Hamas situation is a major complicating factor for Egypt. The always dicey Israeli-Egyptian relationship has been made more so with the advent of Hamas. And at home, Hamas' popularity and the dire situation in Gaza weaken the government in the eyes of the people. Bottom line: the Egyptians-as much or even more than the Israelis and Palestinians-need an end to the crisis that began when Hamas seized Gaza. Hopefully, that underlying reality will keep the Mubarak government engaged.