Electoral Unraveling

The pollsters and pundits could have it all wrong. If they are right, the outcome of today's election will be the murkiest in Israel's history. Yesterday, close to 20 percent of eligible voters were still undecided, many weren't even sure if they'd show up to vote at all.

Unless there is a last minute shift, the outcome is likely to remain uncertain, even after the votes are tallied. According to the final polls, the difference could be in the margin of error: Likud 25-27, Kadima 23-25, Yisrael Beitenu 18-19, Labor 13-17. (A coalition of 61 seats is needed to form a government.)

Most likely, either the Likud's Benyamin (Bibi) Netanyahu or Kadima's Tzipi Livni will win the most votes, and one of them will be tasked with forming the next government. But without a decisive victory, the winner-Netanyahu or Livni-could find him or herself in the most unenviable position-with a weak mandate and Yisrael Beitenu's Avigdor Lieberman as a partner.

The rise of the ultra right-wing Yisrael Beitenu Party, which ran on a platform that threatens the citizenship rights of Israeli Arabs, is a major complication. A solid electoral showing, followed by its inclusion in the new government, would damage Israel's international standing. Democracies tend not to include neo-fascists in their governing coalitions and, to much of the world including many Israelis, Lieberman fits that billing.

Politically, bringing Lieberman into a government means forging an alliance with extremists. Leaving him out, could mean relying on fringe parties to keep a coalition intact.

More definitive answers will begin to emerge tomorrow. For now, here are four potential scenarios for the day after the election. Throughout the day, MJ Rosenberg (and the IPF staff)  will be live-blogging as the election, and its possible implications, unfold.

Scenario 1:  Netanyahu and Lieberman form a right-wing government

This is not what Netanyahu wants. He would prefer governing with parties to his left, giving him more latitude both domestically and in foreign policy. But, if Bibi wins by a modest margin, and Yisrael Beitenu comes in a strong third, a coalition with Lieberman and other right-wing parties could be his surest way to form a stable government.

Scenario 2:  Netanyahu,  Barak, and Lieberman form a coalition with small right-wing parties

Netanyahu would actually feel more comfortable with Ehud Barak, not Avigdor Lieberman, as his wing-man (i.e. defense minister). But first, Barak has to win enough seats to make a coalition viable. And even if does, he might have a hard time convincing the members of  his own party, many of whom are eager to dump him as party leader, to join a right-wing coalition with Yisrael Beitenu-especially if the main benefit is that Barak is appointed Defense Minister.

Scenario 3: Tzipi Livni forms a government with Labor and Yisrael Beitenu

Tzipi Livni has been steadily catching up to Netanyahu (or rather she's maintained her popularity, while he's lost votes). Unless there is an upset-Yisrael Beitenu crashes and left leaning parties suddenly take off-that scenario is doubtful.

In a more likely scenario, Livni squeezes by Netanyahu, and fights to  bring Yisrael Beitenu into her coalition. The left leaning parties will fall out, and so will the chance that a peace-driven coalition will be formed.

But even if Livni does win, she may not be the one who forms a government. According to tradition, the leader most likely to form a coalition is asked to try first, not necessarily the one that wins the most seats. As long as the right-wing parties keep their dominance, that person is Benyamin Netanyahu.

Scenario 4: A national unity government of Likud, Kadima, and Labor: the stagnant scenario?

Israelis have had enough experience with national unity governments to hate them. Their basic feature-consensus-even seems to contradict the very thing Israelis look for when they vote-strong leadership.

But if no party or constellation of parties can put together a viable coalition, the top parties can choose to share power, and even have their leaders take turns as acting prime minister. This system could neutralize the extremists. Yisrael Beitenu would become a small force in the face of the big three (Likud, Kadima, and Labor).

In Israel, unity governments are not famous for cooperation and leadership, but rather for stagnation, in-fighting, and worse.

In an Israel Hayom op-ed, Yossi Beilin recalls previous unity governments "when Yitzhak Shamir and Ariel Sharon took advantage of the Labor Party's presence in their governments to continue building settlements, stall any peace process, and used the Labor leaders to explain to the world why they were justified. "The leaders of the right," he continued, "decided to take steps in the peace process only when they were without the fig leaf of the center and the left. It was then that they were simply exposed to the real world and understood that in order to protect certain national interests, one must compromise."

Perhaps this time a national unity government will advance Israel's interests more  than a coalition that empowers Lieberman. This is written just a few hours before the returns come in. At that point, we'll know more. Or not.