Gaza Lockdown

Despite Israel's three-week offensive in Gaza, little has changed. Fewer Kassams are hitting Israel, but this might only be another temporary reprieve.

At the same time, inside Gaza food is scarce. Because the crossings are closed, the food that makes it in comes through illegal tunnels, and is priced accordingly--much higher than usual. Hamas' control of Gaza is as strong as ever and Palestinian factions remain bitterly divided.

Israel has imposed a blockade, which closes Gaza's borders to all but subsistence goods, for almost two years. The argument in favor of the blockade holds that, as long as a terror organization controls Gaza, Israel will strictly regulate what goes in and out. Some have developed the argument further. They say that by stifling Gaza's economy while simultaneously helping the West Bank prosper, they are providing the Palestinians with living examples of the fruits of "resistance" in contrast to those of peace. Others say that the blockade was only intended to be a temporary emergency measure that could be adjusted once a comprehensive cease-fire between Hamas and Israel and a Palestinian power-sharing arrangement on Gaza were brokered.

While those negotiations keep starting and failing, average Israelis and Gazans are left to deal with the consequences.

Gaza Today

Three weeks of war in Gaza, the Economist reports, left thousands of Palestinians homeless. And even those who did not lose their homes suffer from extreme shortages of power and water. Sabah Al Barakoni, ANERA'S office manager in Gaza, gave her own testimony about life under the blockade: "Very little amounts of cooking gas are allowed in, most of which is used by bakeries, hospitals, and a few restaurants. Most people cannot afford even a cylinder of gas. . . . Almost everything that you find in Gaza stores nowadays comes through the tunnels. . . . One kilogram of chicken costs about $8 and a kilo of red meat is about $18. It is sardine season now and fishermen are not allowed to fish. . . . We spent the winter months without shoes .  . .  children go to school barefoot or wrap their feet in cloth."

$4.5 billion was pledged at the international donors' conference in March, so why can't beef get into Gaza?

The international pledge to reconstruct Gaza and help its people return to normalcy was a conditional promise--once the divided Palestinian leadership (Fatah and Hamas) finds a way back into a unity government, and Hamas no longer controls Gaza, reconstruction can begin.

Can the Palestinians Unite?

Mideast analysts have generally stopped counting Palestinian reconciliation attempts (four rounds so far, with another due to begin in mid-May), while an increasing number believe that these attempts are futile unless the United States relents its position on Hamas.  A Hamas-Fatah unity government was anathema to the Bush administration, but there is now, at least, an openness to the possibility. 

In two congressional hearings, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton defended the administration's intention to get aid to a Palestinian unity government, even one that includes Hamas.  "We are currently funding the Lebanese government, which has Hezbollah (members)," she said before  the Appropriations Subcommittee. A Lebanese model would likely mean that the United States would support a government that included Hamas members in it, but would not officially recognize, or meet with, those members.

But American openness means nothing without Palestinian reconciliation. Fatah and its leader, President Mahmoud Abbas, might have a harder time accepting a government that includes Hamas than the United States does. The two groups have been engaged in a violent dispute. According to Human Rights Watch, that violence included Hamas' killing of at least 32 Palestinians and the maiming of dozens more since the end of December.

Abbas may be preparing a new package to bring to his May 28 meeting with President Obama, "a government composed of Fatah and 'independent' (i.e., non-Hamas) Gaza figures," according to Arab political analyst Marc Lynch. "If so," Lynch wrote on Foreign Policy's blog, "then the package Abbas brings with him to Washington . . .  will be a return to the status quo ante of a stark division between Gaza and the West Bank, political conflict between Hamas and Fatah, and ongoing Western efforts to build some kind of new structure on the shaky foundations of the remnants of the Palestinian Authority." But Hamas is not likely to accept such a deal, leaving Palestinians divided between two territories and two feuding governments.

Next week, when Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu meets Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak in Cairo, they will certainly discuss Gaza but are unlikely to come up with a change to the status quo. According to Ghassan Khatib in Bitterlemons, Egypt's most recent proposal to the Palestinian factions is to formalize their division: Hamas gets Gaza, Fatah controls the West Bank, and a body is formed to coordinate between the two.

Under that arrangement-with Hamas, officially in control of Gaza-will Gaza's borders remain sealed indefinitely?

 Ending the Gaza Blockade 

On Capitol Hill, a growing number of American leaders say that sealing Gaza's borders indefinitely is inhumane and unacceptable.  "The crossings must open for two reasons," Congressman Keith Ellison said at a New America Foundation briefing in March, "in order to cut down on the traffic in the tunnels and, therefore, make sure that nothing goes through them in a way that endangers Israel's security, but also to address the desperate humanitarian conditions in Gaza."

Several parties, among them Israel, Egypt, and the Palestinians, are concerned about the situation in Gaza, and those parties all play a role. In the next month, their leaders will be coming to Washington to meet with President Obama. Vice President Joe Biden's remarks at the AIPAC conference yesterday could be instructive for those conversations. As he put it, "show me."