How America Can Save the Roadmap

If the events of the past ten years have taught us anything, it is that no autonomous state can emerge or survive where parties competing for political power have their own military forces.  Can anyone imagine a recall vote in California where all the contenders for governor each have their own militias, some of which are blowing up buses and cafes in nearby Mexico in order to attract more political support?

For too long, the international community has tolerated this astonishing absurdity among Palestinians, whether from Hamas and Islamic Jihad or the associates of Arafat -- many of whom rely primarily on violence to achieve their goals, not only vis-à-vis the Israelis but toward each other as well.  As Shlomo Avineri wrote in the Financial Times last month, "Some Palestinians say they would confront the armed militias once they achieved full independence. They are wrong. They will never achieve a coherent state if they do not monopolize the use of force now:  this is the true test of nation building and leadership."

If the PA under Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) seeks to control the violence, but cannot do so alone, then America must help.  The President's road map will never succeed otherwise, and as we have just seen, the situation will only decline into further chaos if the threat and reality of terror is not stemmed.  America will not have the authority to ask for serious concessions from Israel until we help stop the terrorism. 

How to Defeat Terror

Hamas, Islamic Jihad, and Arafat only appear strong because they have not been seriously challenged.  They gain from the hopelessness they create, ironically wringing their popularity from the diplomatic process they have destroyed and the economy their actions have decimated.  The only way to transform this nightmare is to provide the Abu Mazen/Mohammed Dahlan/Salaam Fayyad government with the tools, the backing and the capacity to end the violence.  Their achievements will bring them popular support.

Some have suggested that the resort to violence can be controlled once individuals who have previously been members of wayward groups are able to participate in Palestinian politics.  The opposite is the case.  Only preventing the resort to violence will normalize Palestinian politics, just as only after Ben-Gurion destroyed Menachem Begin's forces in 1948 (in the midst of a war no less) could Begin, the Irgun leader and future Prime Minister, become a legitimate member of the Israeli political system.

Senator Richard Lugar, Chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, has advocated exploring the possibility of a NATO protectorate in the territories.  Former U.S. Ambassador to Israel Martin Indyk has spoken about a trusteeship for Palestine. But the real work of confronting and ending the violence must come from within. Palestinians opposed to violence must be the leaders of the anti-terror effort, even if success requires additional support from outside.  This task is not hopeless, and, in fact, would probably  be easier to accomplish than in either Iraq or Afghanistan.  Palestine is a compact area where the terrorists and other violent elements are known, identifiable, and can be located.

But to accomplish this task, we need a Palestinian faction engaged with the United States, not an entire polity subjugated by an outside international alliance.

Specifically, here's what America should do:

1. We must increase security assistance immediately to the PA under Abu Mazen and Dahlan, on condition that assistance will be translated into action. There are many tasks which confront Dahlan, including:  the discovery of illegal weapons, the destruction of ammunition stockpiles, the dismantling of the workshops for production of weapons and ammunition, and the arrest of those involved in terrorist actions and those responsible for them. The recent interest of Hamas in another possible ceasefire is testimony to their fear of Israeli attacks and their concern that Dahlan will be provided sufficient assistance to take these kinds of actions.  Most importantly, Abbas and Dahlan should be empowered by our support to end the threat of internal and external violence once and for all.

2. The United States should negotiate with Israel a series of steps towards implementing the roadmap, including moves on prisoners, withdrawals, dismantling of illegal outposts, and freezing of settlements.  This timeline will specify the actions that Israel will take in response to specific Palestinian actions on terror.  Thus both sides will know beforehand what they are gaining in return for their actions, and when it will happen.  Israel has indicated it would reciprocate in response to Palestinian action against terror, and America should mediate accordingly.  Instead of an eye for an eye, we need a concession for a concession in the Middle East.

3. We must put in place the monitors called for in the road map.  America has assumed responsibility for this crucial device, something both Israelis and Palestinians insisted was a pre-requisite for any progress.  So far, little seems to have been done.

4. The military existence of Hamas must end, both in the interests of Israeli security and Palestinian independence.  If the Palestinian Authority cannot execute this job of disarming and dismantling Hamas on its own, then America should lead an international effort to assist the Palestinians in this essential task. What does this method mean in practice?  It calls for American leadership, not necessarily American troops.  The main goal is to strengthen the security muscles of the P.A., to train and equip the Palestinians to take care of security on their own.

This approach should be pursued in two stages.  In the first, the strengthening and training of Dahlan's security forces would be accelerated.  In the second phase, if this more subdued method proved insufficient, actual troops would be employed. With the approval of Israel, it is far better to have forces such as the Egyptians, Jordanians, or Turks, or perhaps Canadians, Australians or British, assisting the Abbas government, than it would be to slide back into chaos and deterioration. These troops would not function on their own authority, as in the concepts considered by Indyk and Lugar; instead, they would be acting as 'guest police' under the leadership of the Palestinian Authority.  Dismantling the basic infrastructure is critical if the end to violence is to be sustained, and that can only be done effectively by the Palestinians themselves; not by Israel, the Europeans, the Arabs, or the Americans.  But each can in its own way help insure that the Palestinians succeed.

5. The United States must be fully and consistently engaged. It is worth recalling that an Israeli-Syrian disengagement deal occurred in May 1974 only because Secretary of State Henry Kissinger himself stayed in the region for 33 straight days.  That exact approach may not be appropriate, but it is clear that the United States must still increase its level of engagement.  This can be done through deploying the monitors, through sponsoring an international force to back up the Abbas government, and through constant, day-to-day mediation.

6. One major area in which the Palestinians require assistance is the funding by Arab governments and private individuals of Hamas and other Palestinian groups.  Here the administration is correct to single out European-based, Palestinian charity groups --  the charitable and military parts of the same organization cannot be truly separated.  Funds are fungible and the military wing of Hamas, for example, is more effective because of its charitable activities. Many governments in the area continue to provide funds and hide behind these supposedly "charitable" efforts.

As Alex Fishman has described in Yediot Ahronoth, there is "an extensive network for channeling money from various foundations in Israel and the territories.  Whereas before the Intifada they channeled $50,000,000 per annum, they now convey about one hundred million each year.  Arafat is signaling to the Americans that he, and he alone, can control these funds."  As control by Arafat is precisely what the US is hoping to avoid, it must help the Abu Mazen government by pressing European and Arab countries to shut down the flow of money.

7. Economic progress is essential. There are a myriad of actions that the United States, Israel, Arab and European governments can take.  Israel, for example, can provide transfer of collected duties more quickly.  Kuwait, Libya, and Qatar should be called on to deliver the funds they have promised to the Palestinians.

For the United States, now is the time to prove whether we are serious or not.  Words can be very helpful, and the road map is in many ways the most creative program any US administration has ever presented. But without implementation on the diplomatic, economic, and security levels, the roadmap will not succeed and American policy will fail.  We must dedicate ourselves to improving the situation immediately.  The violence has gone on long enough. Time is not on our side if we merely contemplate our options.

Written by Steve Spiegel, Gilead Light and the staff of Israel Policy Forum.