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Yes You Can, Mr. President

The views shared on The Mideast Peace Pulse are those of the author(s) and not those of Israel Policy Forum.

Israel Policy Forum Announces its Next Chapter with Middle East Progress

Dear Friends and Supporters of Israel Policy Forum:

On behalf of Israel Policy Forum (IPF), including our President Peter Joseph and Chair Larry Zicklin, I am pleased to inform you that IPF is embarking on its next chapter. 

2010 Must Be Showtime for Mideast Peace

Assistant Director, IPF - NY

As 2009 draws to a close, we are bombarded by the annual litany of commentary features recapping the year in Hollywood movies to the year in international conflict, and everything in between.

When it comes to the Middle East peace process, current conventional wisdom suggests the 2009 recap might go something like this: 

US-Iran Negotiations: Simulation Exercise at INSS

Ephraim Asculai, Emily B. Landau, and Tamar Malz-Ginzburg

INSS Insight No. 154, December 29, 2009

Despite the tendency to denote any simulation exercise on security issues a "war game," the recent simulation designed and held at INSS did not focus on the option of a military attack. Rather, it developed the scenario of a bilateral US-Iranian negotiation over Iran's nuclear program.

Israeli Foreign Minister Investigated for Corruption

Yet another potential indictment of a prominent Israeli politician is in the works. Earlier this week, Israeli police concluded a nine-year investigation by recommending that Attorney General Menachem Mazuz indict Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman on charges of bribery, money laundering, obstruction of justice, harassment of witnesses, fraud, and breach of trust.

What is this all about and what does it all mean?

The Allegations

The police allege that Lieberman received money from a series of businessmen and channeled it through numerous front companies he set up throughout Europe, including in the former Soviet Union and Cyprus, leading eventually to an Israeli straw company operated by Lieberman's daughter. His daughter was detained for questioning by police in January.

During the course of the investigation the names of Austrian tycoon Martin Shlaff and Russian oligarch Mikhail Chernoy arose as possible major sources of the money. A detailed account of various allegations was published in Ha'aretz magazine in 2007.

It is alleged that this scheme enabled Lieberman to launder more than $3 million in unreported "consulting fees."

What Now?

Lieberman has denied the charges and claims that the police's investigation is politically motivated. In a statement he said, "For 13 years, the police have conducted a campaign of persecution against me. . . . As much as my political strength and the strength of Israel Beiteinu rise, the campaign of persecution also intensifies."

Lieberman said that if Israel's attorney general decides to proceed with an indictment, he will not only resign from his position as foreign minister, as is required by law, but also from the Knesset and from his position as head of Yisrael Beiteinu:

"As far as I'm concerned, the watershed is a final decision by the attorney general, after a hearing, whenever and how that may be. If, after the hearing, the attorney general decides to indict me, there is no question that at that moment I will resign and I assume that within three to five months, I will also resign from my position as chairman of the party and as an MK."

Attorney General Menahem Mazuz is not expected to make a decision on the indictment for at least several weeks, and likely several months. Two months ago, Mazuz was quoted criticizing the appointment of Lieberman while he was under investigation, saying, "A properly run country should not reach such a situation." Mazuz will complete his term in office in February 2010 and there is a chance that he will not complete the process of an indictment before he leaves office, making the appointment of his successor potentially crucial to Lieberman's future.

What Happens If Lieberman Is Indicted?

If indicted, Lieberman will face trial and, if convicted on all counts, could face up to thirty-one years in prison. It is believed that regardless of Lieberman's status, Yisrael Beiteinu will remain in the governing coalition. If Lieberman is forced to resign, Meirav David in Maariv reports on potential replacements as foreign minister:

"Among Yisrael Beiteinu members there are two assessments as to the identity of the replacement: the first is Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon. The second possibility is that Lieberman will actually prefer a Likud minister so as not to strengthen any of his party's senior members. There is also a third possibility that Netanyahu will choose to keep the portfolio for himself."

The Jerusalem Post reports that Lieberman will have control over the future of the foreign ministry portfolio in the event of his indictment, per a coalition agreement:

"In the coalition agreement with Israel Beiteinu, it states that the Foreign Affairs portfolio was given specifically to Lieberman, as opposed to every other portfolio, which was given to the parties in the coalition to allocate on their own. Likud sources said this subtle change was made purposely so portfolios could be reallocated if Lieberman were indicted."

Lily Galili in Ha'aretz reports that while talk of a successor to head Yisrael Beiteinu is taboo within the party, quiet conversations have begun with the belief that any successor would be someone with strong ties to the Russian-immigrant community, which represents the backbone of the party:

"In private, hush-hush conversations, two names keep coming up. One is Tourism Minister Stas Misezhnikov, number three on the party's Knesset list, an obvious candidate. The second is new MK Fania Kirshenbaum, number 10 on the list. Before running for the Knesset, Kirshenbaum served as party CEO and is familiar with its inner workings and key activists."

It is possible that with a weakened Yisrael Beiteinu, Kadima--or more likely, various members within it--may consider joining the government. A bill passed this week dubbed the "Mofaz bill"--after disgruntled Kadima MK Shaul Mofaz--would enable as many as seven members of a political party to form its own factions or switch affiliations, potentially paving the way for Mofaz and others to switch to the Likud Party and enter the government.

What Are Israelis Saying?

Yisrael Beiteinu's Minister of National Infrastructure Uzi Landau has predictably come out in defense of his party's chairman, telling Israel's Army Radio:

"He behaved properly throughout the course of the investigation, including his statement yesterday that he would resign. Lieberman must come out against this general phenomenon of public lynching in the media, with people convicted before they are tried."

Meanwhile, former foreign minister and head of the opposition Tzipi Livni has come out hard against Prime Minister Netanyahu for his silence on the matter and against Yisrael Beiteinu's Yitzchak Aharonovitch, who despite serving as minister of internal security--and as such as the supervisor of the police--sat alongside Avigdor Lieberman at a party meeting in which Lieberman spoke with reporters about the police investigation being politically motivated.

Livni was quoted by Yedioth Ahronoth as saying:

"There is one thing that is not within one's civil rights and that is to claim that Israel police is motivated by political interests and personally and politically persecutes people. . . . When the internal security minister hesitates or stays quiet, it is the role of the prime minister of Israel to provide the necessary support for the law enforcement authorities when they are being attacked by a minister in his cabinet."

Meanwhile, the Jerusalem Post quoted Labor MK Yuli Tamir saying it was hypocritical and shameful "that Defense Minister Ehud Barak was keeping Labor in a coalition with Lieberman after he has claimed to be a fighter against corruption."

The Lieberman scandal is, of course, just the latest in a string of corruption cases against Israeli politicians. Nearly one year ago former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert was forced to resign amid a police investigation that is ongoing. In June, former Finance Minister Avraham Hirchson was jailed for five years and five months for corruption dating from when he was a union leader, and a former welfare minister, Shlomo Benizri, began a four-year sentence for taking bribes while in office.

It is not terribly surprising then that a new poll released this week by the Israel Democracy Institute indicates 89 percent of Israelis think that corruption is prevalent in Israel, with 50 percent of the public believing that politicians enter politics purely for personal gain.