Israel's Multiple Tracks: A Conversation with Alon Ben David

On Monday, June 30th, IPF National Scholar Steven L. Spiegel moderated a conference call with Alon Ben David, a Senior Defense Correspondent for Israel's "Channel 10" Television network. The following is a summary of his remarks.

The Prisoner Exchange Deals:

A prisoner exchange deal has been sealed with Hezbollah. The exchange will take place in under a week. And it seems like one of the "cheapest" deals that Israel has ever negotiated with Hezbollah.

From the beginning, it has been quite obvious to Israel that the two captured soldiers, Eldad Regev and Ehud Goldwasser, are probably dead. The entire negotiations process was conducted knowing that Israel was likely exchanging prisoners for bodies. Knowing the fate of the soldiers, Israel was unwilling to pay as high a price as it has previously. It rejected Hezbollah's initial demand that hundreds of Palestinian prisoners be released. Instead, Israel is going to release a horrible murderer, Samir Kuntar, the person who killed a family in Nahariya 30 years ago.

Once the exchange with Hezbollah is completed, we may expect more intensive negotiations with Hamas regarding the third kidnapped soldier, Gilad Shalit, who, unlike Regev and Goldwasser, is certainly alive.

However, the exchange for Shalit could take a very long time to conclude. The gap between the Israeli and Hamas positions is huge. Hamas is demanding the release of 450 of the worst killers that Israel has in its prisons in return for one soldier. Israel has so far agreed to only about 80 prisoners from that list. However, Israel recently suggested that it might be willing to release more prisoners on condition that they are let go in the Gaza Strip and not in the West Bank where they can launch new attacks on Israel.

The Gaza Cease-fire:

While there is a gap in the positions of Hamas and Israel on the Shalit deal, there are strong interests on both sides for the cease-fire in Gaza to hold. In fact, some would claim that cease-fire conditions-Israelis and Palestinian not killing each other-will benefit the negotiations for the return of Gilad Shalit.

Hamas is extremely concerned that other organizations will breach the cease-fire and cause it to collapse. In recent days, Hamas has acted with force to stop other militant organizations from firing into Israel. Hamas is eager to see the blockade of Gaza relieved. Its goal is the opening of the Rafah Crossing with Egypt, allowing the free movement of people in and out of Gaza. This interest provides Hamas with a strong incentive to maintain the cease-fire, even for a few months.

Israel also has a strong incentive to keep the cease-fire going. During the last year and a half, Israel has continually evaluated its military options in Gaza and reached the same conclusion-that its military options in Gaza are terrible. It may not be a problem for the Israeli army to take Gaza over; it can likely do that in several days. But there's no way out of Gaza. After Israel left Gaza following many years of occupation, it's hard to imagine the Israeli government calling up thousands of reserve troops to participate in a long and costly war that would end with a reoccupation of Gaza.

After reviewing the military options, many Israeli leaders have decided that the best thing to do is to take advantage of the current cease-fire and gain some time. With that time, Israel could get closer to developing a defense system against rockets that would dramatically change the situation in the south. We have to bear in mind, however, that we are still talking about a very fragile truce.

The Israel-Syria Talks in Istanbul:

Looking north of Israel to Syria, there will soon be another round of Israel-Syria talks in Istanbul. These talks are not being held with the hope of achieving an agreement with Syria anytime soon. The Syrian understanding is that the current U.S. administration will not endorse any Syria-Israel agreement. The current U.S. administration has only been willing to go as far as accepting the fact that Israel is negotiating with Syria. It is the next administration that will have the chance to cash in on any agreement that will be reached with the Syrians.

Achieving an agreement with Syria shouldn't be very complicated. Most of the major issues were discussed and agreed upon 12 years ago. The two parties understand the essence of those negotiations. The fact that renewed negotiations are taking place is keeping Syria, if only slightly, away from the Iranian embrace. Iran's embrace is uncomfortable for Syria at the end of the day. Syria's uneasiness is expressed by the independent policy that President Bashar Assad has pursued vis-à-vis Iran. He started his own nuclear program and conducted his own negotiations with Israel without the Iranians being aware of it. He is not a proxy of Iran.

Like many in the region, the Syrians have monitored recent developments and expect that somebody-perhaps Israel-is going to do something about Iran. By negotiating with Israel, the Syrians hope to take themselves out of the equation. They are basically saying: "we are allies with Iran, but if somebody goes after them, we don't want that somebody to go after us." The Israelis have a similar assessment. "If something goes down with Iran," Israeli logic holds, "we don't want to have Syria on Iran's side."

Israeli Politics and Regional Problems:

Although the defense and political establishments in Israel these days appear to be preoccupied with the situation in Gaza and the prisoner exchange with Hezbollah, the schedules of the prime minister, defense minister, and the chief of staff indicate that their number one concern is Iran.

Kadima's primaries are currently scheduled for September. Only some "miracle" or "dramatic event" between now and September could stop the Kadima primaries from going forward or make Olmert electable again.

It seems that Israel's political schedule coincides with its strategic situation. This could be one of the reasons that Ehud Barak insists on maintaining the current government and not pushing for new elections. He supports postponing elections because of the "dramatic challenges" Israel may have to deal with shortly. In fact, it may take nothing less than a "dramatic event" to make Ehud Barak or Ehud Olmert electable. That event could be military action against Iran, but it could also be peace talks with Syria or an agreement with the Palestinians. Time will tell.