Israel's Political Situation

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's tenure will likely be remembered for being the most turbulent in Israel's history. First was the outcry over the mixed results of the war in Lebanon. Then the fallout from the Winograd report, a fractured governing coalition, Winograd II, and finally the corruption charges. But his legacy is, just as much, his evolution from advocate of Greater Israel to prime minister genuinely determined to make peace with Palestinians and Syrians. Many of those most eager to see him go are even more adamant that Olmert's efforts to achieve peace agreements go with him.

The Scandal

The allegation that Olmert received bribes from American businessman Morris Talansky first surfaced in May. Talansky admitted giving Olmert approximately $150,000 in cash-stuffed envelopes. The question now confronting the legal authorities is whether the donations were legal campaign contributions or illegal bribes. 

Talansky is expected to be cross-examined by Olmert's legal team on July 17th. Olmert hopes that this testimony will clear him of charges, but the political fallout is likely to continue regardless with a Kadima primary followed by a general election.

The Political Fallout

The race is on, but serious questions remain. What will be the fate of Olmert and Kadima? Will Kadima survive upcoming elections or will a Labor-led or Likud-led government relegate the party to history?

The date of the Kadima primary is currently being debated. Writing in Maarivtoday, Merav David posited that three Kadima hopefuls-Shaul Mofaz, Avi Dichter, and Meir Shetrit-are willing to wait to duke it out until after Talansky's cross-examination, but the current favorite, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, would like the primary to take place as soon as possible.

It is widely believed that Olmert will decide not to run in the primary unless Talansky's cross-examination somehow erases the shadow cast over him and that the faceoff will be between Livni and current minister of transportation and former defense minister, Shaul Mofaz. 

Livni has considerable support with the general public. A major part of her popularity is thanks to her reputation of being totally straight-laced. Unlike Barak and Netanyahu, she has never been accused of any ethical improprieties.

And They're Off . . .

While Kadima candidates jockey for the leadership, the other parties are right behind them. As Yuval Karni reported in Tuesday's Yediot Acharonoth, a majority of Knesset members seem to be in favor of a bill that would dissolve the current Knesset and, therefore, advance the general election.

Should that bill pass, the likely scenario is that the contending parties would give Kadima time to replace Olmert and then elections will be set. They would probably take place in November right after the U.S. elections.

Karni described the fervor of the various parties to "win the credit for dissolving the government and forcing early elections," whether or not it is in their best interest. "The Labor Party is probably the last party in the Knesset that wants to hold elections. . . . Barak has failed to build up any momentum. But as soon as [Labor] realized it had no other choice, Labor Party officials have begun to say that their decision . . . stemmed from their moral imperative created by the Olmert scandal."

According to polls, it is the Likud, with Benyamin (Bibi) Netanyahu at its helm, that is best-positioned to win.

Netanyahu will be battling against two candidates who each have been party to the current negotiations with the Palestinians. Livni heads a negotiating team alongside Ahmed Qurei and Ehud Barak has partnered with Palestinian Prime Minister Salaam Fayyad on security issues. Netanyahu takes a hard-line against negotiations and would likely offer the right-wing alternative in the upcoming campaign. 

Where Are the Tracks Leading?

At this week's AIPAC conference in Washington, Olmert suggested that significant progress has occurred on both the Palestinian and Syrian fronts.

While little has been said about potential progress on the questions of refugees and Jerusalem, some of Olmert's aides have begun to claim that progress has been made on setting the borders of the future Palestinian state.

Barak Ravid reported in Yediot Acharonoththat Olmert and Abbas may have agreed on a compromise in which Israel reduces the amount of land it seeks to annex from the West Bank in return for Palestinian concessions on security issues such as demilitarization.

According to Aluf Benn in a May 21 article for the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a deal on the borders is significant because "determining an agreed-upon border in the West Bank will clarify which settlements are headed for future evacuation and the number of evacuees in question."

Agreeing on the status of settlements could allow the parties to move on the requirements outlined in the Roadmap. "Olmert made clear," Benn said, "that once the border is determined, the government will begin procedures for 'evacuation and compensation' legislation for residents of the settlements who choose to leave; furthermore, there will be a freeze on construction in the settlements slated for evacuation. In return, Israel will be free to build in the settlement blocks that are to remain within its borders."

In his AIPAC speech, Olmert admitted that the recently announced Israeli-Syrian negotiations, brokered by Turkey, are not in as advanced a stage as his talks with Abbas. Nonetheless, Olmert's pursuit of the Syrian track has moved it off the backburner where it was placed back in 2000.  Both the Israeli and Syrian public are wrestling with what compromises they will, and won't accept, to reach an agreement.

Looking Beyond Elections

It appears unlikely that agreements between Israel and Syria or Israel and the Palestinians will take place before new leadership teams take over in Washington and Jerusalem. Nonetheless events in the region are not going to take an 8-month holiday. Nor should the current administrations in all of the respective capitals. Issue issue resolved now is one that won't have to be grappled with later.