Letter from Israel: National Fatalism?

Volume 1.18

Israelis seem to be in an uneasy state of limbo since President Bush offered his vision for resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in his much-anticipated speech last month.  Once again, Israelis find themselves perking up as the relative lull in the violence continues into its third week.  With IDF troops surrounding Palestinian towns and villages, tightening their grip around freedom of movement and disrupting the flow of basic humanitarian supplies, the average Israeli understands that the current calm will not extend beyond the last tank standing in "Area A".  Still, with one million six hundred thousand Israeli children out of school for the long summer vacation, no price seems too high for the relative quiet and sense of security.

Israeli attitudes toward what Ambassador Dan Kurzer called "the articulation of a new conceptual paradigm" by President Bush have evolved over the past weeks.  In the immediate aftermath of the speech, most Israelis were relieved by what they viewed as solid endorsement for their right to defend themselves against acts of terror.  Those on the right further rejoiced in the unambiguous denunciation of Arafat; while those on the left were disappointed in the lack of a political plan, a "road map" to achieve what was outlined as American goals.

Reaction To Speech

Within a few days, however, those positions had begun to shift.  The right took closer note of the U.S. demands on Israel to freeze settlement activity and ultimately force the evacuation of settlements to enable the establishment of a Palestinian State within three years, as promised by the President.  The left considered with greater appreciation the significance of the President's announcement of Palestinian statehood within a prescribed time frame.  And now, three weeks later, the premises upon which Bush built his new paradigm seem to have caught on among political leaders, commentators, and the public alike.

Shimon Peres, who was among the earlier critics, said this past week that the President "created new opportunities to resolve the conflict."  A Kol Yisrael Radio diplomatic correspondent, who had vigorously criticized the plan as signaling not only a lack of "grand design" but also a lack of "genuine interest to be engaged in the process," admitted this week that the Bush vision has in fact "prevailed on the Europeans to demand more accountability from Arafat than they otherwise would have."  While still highly critical of the Bush plan for "demonstrating limited interest in what happens here," the correspondent told me that since the speech, "the climate has changed and greater onus is now on the Palestinians, which is a good thing."  According to the latest Tami Steinmetz Peace Index conducted at the end of June, 62% of the Israeli public supports the main points of the Bush vision, including IDF withdrawal to positions held prior to the outbreak of the current hostilities, a freeze on settlements, and an end to occupation.

By now, Israelis have gotten used to living with an intermittent sense of false security and an internal, bi-polar debate running constantly in their heads.  They go from great relief, even euphoria, when there is even a brief period of quiet, to deep depression and the return of dark fear when attacks resume.  They express widespread support for the military presence in the territories (only 17% felt the IDF should leave as soon as possible, according to a July 9th Ma'ariv poll, and 80% fairly or strongly supported the IDF move into Palestinian towns, according to the Steinmetz poll).  At the same time, they are supportive of the recently renewed political meetings Shimon Peres is holding with Palestinian delegations, including the new Finance Minister Salem Fayid and the new Interior Minister, Abdel Razik Yehiyeh.  As Ma'ariv commentator Chemi Shalev said last week about Israeli public opinion: "The public has rallied behind most of the components of the Bush plan, not only the one calling to replace Arafat.  A different Palestinian leader will meet an Israeli public prepared for the establishment of a Palestinian state, prepared to freeze settlements (and according to previous polls, also to evacuate most of them), and also prepared for a significant, though not total, withdrawal."

Fear and Fatigue

Meanwhile, Israelis are holding their breath, or, as Dalia Ya'iri, popular host of Israel Radio's morning political talk show, "Another Matter", told me this week, "Israelis have entered a phase of national fatalism."  Unable to influence the current situation, incapable of understanding how the Bush plan will translate into real change, "Israelis have given up on trying to figure this out."  What one may call national fatalism, another might call national fatigue.  And given the full plate of critical issues confronting the average Israeli, there is more than enough to worry about beyond public security.  The failing economy and the high rate of unemployment have led the news for weeks, bringing the deterioration of the conflict to the inside of people's homes as their disillusionment regarding a brighter future - both on the national and personal level - deepens.  While 61% of the Israeli public is pleased with Arik Sharon's overall performance as Prime Minister, only 19% are pleased with his performance in the socio-economic arena (Ma'ariv, July 9th).

The deteriorating political and social environment in Israeli society, and the accompanying simultaneous feelings of fear and fatigue, may yet have unexpected consequences.  President Bush's call for Palestinian reform and the writing of a constitution can also have an important effect in Israel.  Bush places enormous importance on the role that a thriving democracy can play in creating the stability needed to engage in a real peace process.  There is room for improvement in this area in Israel as well.  As the socio-economic situation deteriorates, we may begin to see grassroots movements working for change.  Popular movements to advance unilateral withdrawal, the resumption of peace negotiations, the drafting of a constitution for Israel, or simply a push for new elections based on the socio-economic crisis could gain momentum and impact not only Israeli society, but also the future path of peace.

This issue of Forum Fax was edited and produced by the staff of Israel Policy Forum, The Washington Policy Center.