New Life in the Shadow of Death

It is hard to recall such despairing times.  A young Tel Aviv man spat three times on Rabin's memorial - the same number as the bullets that felled him - in front of a Channel Two news crew a few days before the anniversary of his murder.  Glaring swastikas were found splashed across the site on the morning of the yahrzeit. Both of these events bring to the surface some of the toxic undercurrents running through this country.  It is hard to believe, eight years later, that this national day of grief becomes an opportunity for some to demonstrate their despicable, baseless hatred.  But maybe that is the point, as suggested by many since that terrible night, and in retrospect we will remember it as the beginning of the destruction of the Third Temple.

But just when you think we have sunk as low as we can go, more than 100,000 people turn out to honor Yitzhak Rabin in a memorial rally in the huge square that bears his name, and to voice a collective "yes" for peace that hasn't been heard here in the last three years or more.  It may be wishful thinking to say so, but the positive energy galvanized to express support for Rabin's way - - a political track, a sustained and determined peace process - - might well signal, at last, the return of Israel's "peace camp."

For three years, once-hopeful Israelis have been stunned into silence by suicide bombings and the deteriorating situation, and have lapsed into an acquiescent majority that nods its assent to both prolonged military occupation and aggressive responses to terror that are not accompanied by any serious, creative political initiative.  Oslo, it was concluded, did not work, period.  Barak and his generous Camp David/Taba offer did not persuade the Palestinians to negotiate for peace, proving that they do not want a peaceful compromise.  So muscle is the only answer.  But after three years and nearly 1000 Israelis dead, compounded by the sinking realization that a strong economy and an endless conflict do not go hand in hand, the level of frustration and trepidation about the future has reached an all-time high.  A Yediot poll published on September 26th showed that 43% of the Israeli public believes their economic situation will worsen in the coming year, while 43% described their feeling about the country's situation as "despairing," and 73% do not believe the younger generation will have a better future.

This loss of hope is best illustrated by the sheer apathy of the Israeli voter in the local elections last week.  41% came out to vote for their mayor, compared to 57.4% who voted in the last round of municipal elections, making this the lowest voter turnout in Israel's history.  The gloomy economic statistics released the day before the elections, plus a runaway government deficit, and looming Histadrut (labor union) action that has already been tagged the "mother of all strikes", all put the country in a miserable mood. The numbers were overwhelming:  close to 11% unemployment (226,797 unemployed), with towns across Israel rating as high as 27% (Kseife) in Arab and Bedouin towns, and 12.4% (Acre) in Jewish towns; and, 300,000 families (triple the 1988 figure) living below the poverty line, meaning that one in every three children in the State of Israel is living in poverty.  By staying home, the voters made clear that they have lost faith that the political system can do much to remedy the grim situation.  What does this augur for Israeli democracy?

Still, national security issues dominate the public agenda.  As support grew within the IDF for an easing of restrictions on the Palestinians, the remarkable admission to the press by the Chief of Staff, Moshe Ya'alon - that Israel's failure to have done enough in that area not only contributed to the fall of Abu Mazen but, in fact, endangered Israel - dominated the headlines and rocked the establishment.  Ya'alon, who was identified as the "high-ranking IDF officer" quoted in an explosive article written by Nahum Barnea in Yediot Aharonot  last week, said, "The ongoing curfew is causing damage to Israel's security: It destroys the agriculture, it increases hatred for Israel, and strengthens the terror organizations."

Public criticism, first by pilots who refused to take part in air force attacks on civilian population centers; then by the grieving parents of soldiers killed in the territories - who questioned the senseless sacrificing of their children and claimed they died "like sitting ducks" - and, finally, by the army's top brass, is making life increasingly uncomfortable for Ariel Sharon.  To top it off, the prime minister was grilled for seven hours last Thursday by police investigators over corruption charges.  Sharon's main line of defense, according to press reports, was that he knows nothing of these matters, and the police should talk to his son Gilad - a rather cynical response considering that Gilad, all along, has been "pleading the Fifth."

All of this was accompanied by the announcement of the Geneva Accords, the US joint tour of Ami Ayalon and Sari Nusseibeh, the Israel Democracy Institute's first public discussion of a 50-page paper examining Israel's departure from the settlements, and the mass turnout at Rabin Square last Saturday night.

The Histadrut strike hasn't materialized - pushed off by a late-night Labor Court order, at least for now.  And, as it turns out, some cracks of light have appeared in the government's dark refusal to talk to the PA this week, when Shin Bet chief Avi Dichter met with Jibril Rajoub - former head of preventative security in the West Bank - and Defense Minister Mofaz met with Palestinian Finance Minister Fayyad.  With a full 71% of the Israeli people supporting a renewal of political negotiations with the Palestinians (according to the latest Steinmetz Center poll released November 5th), a final glimmer of hope comes from the unsubstantiated rumor that Sharon and Abu Ala will meet this weekend - - bringing us back full circle to Yitzhak Rabin and his way.  If nothing else, let them talk.

This issue of Forum Fax was edited and produced by the staff of Israel Policy Forum, The Washington Policy Center.

The views expressed in Forum Fax are those of the authors and not necessarily of Israel Policy Forum.