Olmert’s Renunciation

What happened?

The ground has been crumbling beneath him for months. Investigations into corruption charges, leaked police interrogations, and public battles between Olmert, the courts, and the police, have continued unabated.

Corruption charges came to a head in May when American businessman Morris Talansky claimed to have given Olmert at least $150,000 while he was mayor of Jerusalem and minister of trade. As police investigated, they accused Olmert of new offenses, including double charging American Jewish organizations for his travel to speaking engagements.

His political demise, however, has been forecasted, and frequently called for, since the Israel-Hezbollah War of 2006. That conflict ended with over a hundred Israeli soldiers and over a thousand Lebanese civilians dead, and two investigative commissions that laid significant blame on Olmert’s shoulders. As Israeli analyst Nahum Barnea put it in Yediot Acharonth today, “Ehud Olmert died in the war and was buried in the investigations.” Most analysts expect ongoing investigations will lead to his indictment soon.

What’s next?

In a September 17 primary, Olmert’s Kadima Party will elect a new chair. The main contenders are foreign minister, and Olmert foe, Tzipi Livni, and transportation minister, and Olmert ally, Shaul Mofaz, who has previously served as defense minister and chief of staff. Also running are Avi Dichter and Meir Shetrit.

Olmert claims that he will not involve himself in this contest, but it is widely known that he prefers Shaul Mofaz and despises Tzipi Livni, recently saying that any candidate would be better than she is. But it is not clear that his backing will count for much. Livni is slightly ahead, largely because she is seen as a straight arrow that has never been dogged by allegations of corruption.

Once a Kadima chairperson is chosen, the real battle for the next government and the future of Kadima as a party will begin. Olmert will continue to serve as prime minister while his successor attempts to form a government coalition. The chances are fairly good that Livni or Mofaz could form a government and keep Kadima in power, perhaps through the next elections.

What if Kadima can’t do it?

Getting to 61 (the number of Knesset members needed to form a government) will not be a slam dunk for Kadima by any means. As usual, the Sephardic religious party, Shas, will play hard to get—forcing a bidding war as the various parties offer inducements and subsidies to entice Shas into a coalition.

If Kadima cannot form a government within 42 days, elections will be held 90 days later, in February or March 2009.

What about the peace process?

Olmert desperately wants to achieve an agreement with the Palestinians in the remaining months of his term. He has been saying for months that Israel and the Palestinian Authority are most of the way there, with agreements within reach on almost all of the “final status” issues. Also, there is significant movement on the Syrian front, with the prospect of direct negotiations on the horizon (Olmert still needs to convince the Bush administration to develop some enthusiasm about the possibility of enticing Syria out of Iran’s orbit).

The Bush administration also remains dedicated to the idea of achieving an Israeli-Palestinian agreement this year, with Secretary of State Rice looking to announce some kind of deal when the Israelis and Palestinians are here for the United Nations General Assembly session in September.

But there remain considerable obstacles on both fronts and Olmert’s imminent departure only complicates them. In theory, both the Palestinians and Syrians could decide that Olmert is so determined to reach agreements that they should seize the opportunity. The more likely scenario is that they will conclude that a weak Israeli prime minister (in partnership with a lame-duck American president) cannot deliver the goods. It will take every bit of Olmert’s limited power to convince the other teams that he can still be a player. He intends to try.

What is Olmert’s legacy?

Like Yitzhak Rabin and Ariel Sharon, Olmert started out as a hawk but came to the understanding that there is no decent future for Israel without resolving the conflict. Like Rabin, in particular, he tried hard to negotiate in good faith and with respect for Israel’s adversaries. He might still pull off a deal but, even if he does not, he moved Israel closer to ending the conflict.