Peace Front

At 6am this morning (Israel time) a Hamas-Israel truce began. The truce, even according to those who support it, is hanging by a thread. "Along with the willingness to give the truce a chance," Israel's Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said yesterday, "we have decided to instruct the security forces to be ready and prepared for any other action that will be demanded within a short timetable."

As tense as this cease-fire may be, the Olmert government has embarked on diplomatic negotiations on three tracks: a prisoner exchange with Hezbollah, indirect talks with Syria, and a cease-fire with Hamas. Israel also offered yesterday to begin a peace track with Lebanon.

Ironically, this fragile process is beginning as Olmert's tenure may be ending. This, however, is not a "wag the dog" moment. All three tracks were in play long before Olmert's political fortunes collapsed due to corruption scandals. It is possible, however, that success will keep Olmert in office, just as Ariel Sharon survived political scandal because there were larger issues at play.

Of course, the tracks appear as tenuous as Olmert's political future. A deal with Hezbollah is yet to be confirmed, the Israel-Syrian track remains indirect, and the security cabinet that voted for the Gaza cease-fire claimed that it was only a last step before inevitable conflict.

Israel-Syria

Israeli officials have been careful not to reveal details of the second round of talks between Israeli and Syrian representatives that were held in Turkey this week. Turkish Foreign Minister, Ali Babacan, stated simply that "the negotiations went very successfully and, more importantly, that the calendar was set for the next two meetings [planned for July]."

There is good reason for Israel to keep progress on the Syrian track quiet. Syria's relationship with Iran and its support of Hamas and Hezbollah makes it a dubious peace partner in the eyes of many Israelis. Additionally, as much as Israelis may desire peace with Syria, they are not especially enthusiastic about giving up the Golan Heights, a region that is cherished by Israelis both for its strategic value and its natural beauty.

An agreement, however, offers a myriad of benefits: peace with its powerful and most intractable neighbor, an end to Syrian support for Hezbollah, and, almost surely, a significant downgrading in relations between Syria and Iran (thereby eliminating Iran's access to Israel's frontier).

Israeli-Syrian talks remain indirect; no face-to-face talks yet. And while neither Syrian President Bashar al-Assad nor Prime Minister Olmert is eager to meet, French President Nicholas has offered Assad and Olmert a chance to meet face-to-face, perhaps by seating them at the same table, at the July 13th summit of European and Mediterranean countries in Paris.

Israel-Hamas

So far the "6-month" cease-fire that began this morning is holding. As Amir Rappoport outlined in Maariv today, the rules of engagement are as follows: "all troops are to hold their fire, with the exception of cases where it is clearly beyond any doubt that fire at Israel is about to be staged. . . . This morning, discussions are expected to be held by the security establishment in advance of the next stage, which is scheduled to start on Sunday . . . negotiations on returning the soldier Gilad Shalit to Israel, and relieving the prolonged economic siege on the Gaza Strip."

Many apparently unresolved issues threaten the deal. Will Hamas continue to smuggle weapons? Will it allow other militant organizations to sabotage the deal with violence? Can it prevent them from doing so?

Another major issue is about whether the continuing negotiations with Hamas will include a role for Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas. Not including the Abbas government in a deal on Gaza would legitimize Hamas' hold on Gaza, and therefore weaken the moderate camp.

Abbas recently announced his desire for dialogue with Hamas. With a cease-fire in place, Abbas is likely to either push for a unity government, and possibly Hamas' yielding of full control of Gaza, or at least his own participation in the reopening of the Gaza crossings. Should a cease-fire fail, New America Foundation fellow Daniel Levy wrote, Abbas would like to be seen "as having reached out to his fellow Palestinians rather than having abandoned them."

Egypt played the key role in securing the cease-fire. If the truce is to succeed, additional Egyptian mediation will be essential to ensure that the border with Gaza is not a thoroughfare for Hamas' re-supply of arms, that a prisoner release is effected, and that additional border crossings are opened to commerce.

Talking to Hezbollah, Talking to Lebanon?

There may be a third deal in the works-between Israel and Hezbollah. According to media reports, Israel is on the verge of approving the release of Lebanese prisoners-among them Samir Kuntar who brutally killed four Israelis, including a father and his four year old daughter in 1979. Their release would be in exchange for two Israeli soldiers kidnapped at the outset of the Israel-Hezbollah war in 2006, Ehud Goldwasser and Eldad Regev (or their bodies, if they are dead), and a report on the fate of air force officer Ron Arad who was captured in 1986.

Many Israelis are uncomfortable with the prospect of handing Nasrallah a reward in return for dead soldiers. Yossi Yehoshua reported in yesterday's Yediot Achronoth that Defense Minister Ehud Barak was told by a group of retired generals, that "in exchange of bodies, we should give bodies, and not a despicable terrorist of the first degree." Many other Israelis agree.

In any case, there are other signs of movement on the Lebanese front. Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice, on a surprise visit to Beirut, said that the United States accepts the new Lebanese power arrangement (Hezbollah has an enhanced role) and is ready to mediate Israeli-Lebanese peace talks. These talks she said would include discussions of all outstanding issues including the border dispute over Shabba Farms, the tiny piece of territory which the Lebanese claim is theirs, and which Hezbollah uses as pretext for its "resistance" against Israel.

Three Tracks or One?

Israel's recent overtures, as fragile as they may be, were not conjured out of the air. And, while they may serve Olmert by keeping interest on Israel's situation over his investigation, they were not invented in order to save his career.

This multiple-front diplomacy is based on the Israeli government's belief - hope? - that moving diplomatically on three fronts simultaneously may produce a positive synergy comparable to the negative synergy created by multi-front hostility. Time will tell, assuming there is time.