Play it Again, Uncle Sam

It's fair to say that those charged with lowering expectations for the upcoming Annapolis gathering have done a smashing job. One is hard-pressed to find many people on either side of the security barrier who anticipate that something tangible will come out of it. After many months of hype, the conference is now renamed a meeting, the joint document a statement; and the Arab seats around the table may yet be few. The joke du jour, overly cynical even by Israeli standards: "Why have invitations still not been issued to the summit? Because wedding invitations are sent out two months ahead of time, but invitations to funerals go out only the day before."

With so much at stake, the focus has turned to contingency plans. Remembering Camp David, observers are concerned about U.S. strategies for the day after and wonder whether the Americans, who seem to have finally woken up to the urgency of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, can play out the process long enough to avoid disaster.

From a political standpoint, the timing could not be better. President Bush would certainly like to leave office with a diplomatic victory in this complicated arena, one that might temper how history recalls his cowboy approach to the region. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, who has been bombarded with criminal investigations for corruption, has a strong coalition and an equally strong incentive to keep the public focused on external affairs rather than internal indictments. President Mahmoud Abbas and Prime Minister Salam Fayyad are considered to be genuine partners for peace, albeit greatly weakened by chaos in Gaza and growing violence between Hamas and Fatah. Still, with the summit agenda so watered down and no actual negotiations set to take place on the core issues of Jerusalem, refugees, borders, or any other key matter-measuring success will not be simple. Failure will be easier to gauge. As one Palestinian BBC reporter recently said, "If Annapolis fails, Palestinians will lose hope of a state, and Israelis will lose hope of ever getting another 'dream team'" like Abbas and Fayyad.

Prime Minister Olmert is determined to spin this summit as significant even before it begins. "Annapolis cannot be a failure because its very existence constitutes a success," he said in a meeting with French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner this week. By announcing that Defense Minister Ehud Barak will join his team in Maryland and holding an unexpected meeting with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak in Sharm el-Sheikh, Olmert is hoping to add weight to the gathering and gain support for it within his Cabinet and beyond. "We are talking about the launching of negotiations that have not been held for seven years, with dozens of countries attending and in front of the entire world. The goal of the Annapolis meeting is to create international support for the bilateral process that will be between us and the Palestinians." The prime minister is even now welcoming Syrian attendance.

But so far, Israelis and Palestinians aren't buying it. According to the most recent poll data from Dr. Mina Tzemach of the Dahaf Institute, only 25 percent of the Israeli public thinks Annapolis will succeed and 60 percent think it will fail. Still, with 59 percent supporting negotiations with Abbas and 55 percent supporting an overall peace agreement package, Israelis continue to demonstrate that they are prepared to pay a price for peace.

Meanwhile, Dr. Nabil Kukali of the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion found that 55 percent of the Palestinians think Annapolis might succeed and 42 percent think it will fail. There is also strong support for the Palestinian leadership's participation in the meeting, with 62 percent in favor and only 34 percent opposing.

Even as Annapolis evokes yawns or sneers, there is an urgency surrounding it. Time may be running out for the two-state solution. The months spent preparing for what may be just a few hours of diplomatic show-and-tell are months that have been lost to real progress. Time is on no one's side, it only makes the situation more complicated, more deeply rooted in despair, and more fraught with facts on the ground that severely limit options.

And therefore, as unpromising as Annapolis is, it must not be dismissed in advance as a failure. It is imperative that the meeting produce a forceful declaration that lays out a one-way route to resolution, one that does not stop at the Chesapeake Bay. It must lead to something real and tangible, a new momentum and pressing commitment.

During the few days that remain before the gathering, the players must make binding decisions that will mark Annapolis as the first in a series of meetings out of which an independent Palestinian state alongside a secure Israel will be created within a rigorous timeframe. The United States must pledge that it will not cease its efforts until the fundamental parameters are achieved. That way, no matter the outcome of Annapolis, those leaders who will determine the fate of the region will at least have shown that they understand they have no choice but to keep playing out this process, again and again, until they get it right.

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Israel Policy Forum announces our upcoming Annual Leadership Event on December 3rd in New York. The event will be a significant demonstration of support for diplomacy aimed at ending the conflict. We encourage you to join us.

Guests slated to speak include Israel's Vice Prime Minister Haim Ramon, MK Ephraim Sneh, and Jordan's Ambassador to the United States H.E. Prince Zeid Raad Zeid al Hussein, among others.

For more information or to make a reservation, click here or call IPF's New York office at (212) 245-4227.