Ready For Rice

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has decided to wade back into the Israeli-Palestinian conflict with what appears to be the most serious initiative of her tenure.  And there are signs that the situation is ripe for progress.

Israeli and Palestinian leaders are desperate for a political initiative that could boost their domestic political standing.  The Quartet wants in, and the new UN Secretary General Ban Ki Moon seems ready to take a role in the process (the Quartet is scheduled to meet in Washington in early February).  And, unlike the last round of negotiations, the Arab states - feeling the pressure from a rising Iran and a disintegrating Iraq - are pushing for an agreement and are reportedly serious about reintroducing the Saudi Plan (which offers Israel full normalization pending withdrawals from occupied territory).

That's why it's particularly noteworthy that in the weeks following the Quartet meeting, Secretary Rice has undertaken to facilitate "informal discussions" between Israeli Prime Minister Olmert and Palestinian President Abbas about moving the Roadmap forward and establishing a Palestinian state.  As Rice herself argued, there is more reason for optimism this time around than in the past.

But are informal talks, designed to fortify some of the recent Israeli confidence building measures (Israel released $100 million of withheld tax revenues to Abbas last week), enough?  Why not help both sides engage in serious negotiations?

Rice could be focusing on tentative steps because she knows that the situation in Israel and the Palestinian territories is volatile.  Israel is still recovering from the inconclusive war in Lebanon over the summer: Chief of Staff Dan Halutz, who oversaw the military aspects of the war, resigned last week in advance of a fact-finding committee's report that many assumed would call for his dismissal.  Many Israelis predict that he will not be the last casualty of the war.

The Olmert government, especially the Prime Minister and his Defense Minister Amir Peretz, is under siege.  Opportunistic politicians from all sides of the political divide, including Olmert's own centrist party, are trying to capitalize on the government's unsatisfactory performance during the war and a raft of corruption scandals that have surfaced in the past month (among other scandals, the President, Moshe Katzav, was indicted on four counts of rape on Tuesday).

The Palestinian side looks even worse.  There is still no agreement about a Hamas-Fatah unity government while the threats of further internal violence and civil war are increasing.  The failed meeting in Damascus between Abbas and Hamas head Khaled Meshal last weekend was further evidence that both sides have not yet found a formula to bridge the gaps.  The Palestinians need a unity government, perhaps composed of unaffiliated technocrats, to end the political and social paralysis of the past year. But Hamas is not ready to make the political compromises (i.e. recognizing Israel and forswearing violence) necessary to allow such an arrangement.  Tensions simmer as Kassam rockets continue to fall and the inter-factional threats escalate.

That's probably why Rice argued for intermediate steps: discussions, not negotiations.  In an interview with the German magazine Der Spiegel, she said that "a set of informal talks between Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas would be useful... to break the ice. They've not talked about the issues concerning the establishment of the state for six years... I think this is a good way to start work toward the establishment of a Palestinian state."

Nevertheless, instead of incremental steps, the impediments she mentioned could just as soon explain why "informal talks" may not be enough to advance the process.  There is little need for both sides to go back to the drawing board and discuss the parameters of a final-status agreement from scratch, and there is little reason to believe that halting steps, if that is indeed what the Secretary is proposing, will move the political process in a productive direction.  Rice herself has suggested "that it may be more difficult to negotiate a provisional state than just to go to the end game."

The parties themselves are thinking beyond the short-term.  Abbas has consistently said that he is prepared to begin final-status negotiations with Israel.  While the Olmert government faces a flood of questions about his government and leadership, there is a commanding majority in Israel committed to a two-state solution.  Olmert has reportedly indicated that if the informal talks with Abbas don't add up to anything, he will consider resurrecting his "realignment" plan which entails a coordinated withdrawal from much of the West Bank.  A report by Ben Caspit in Maariv indicated on Tuesday that "if a Palestinian unity government is formed, Olmert will renew diplomatic negotiations on the establishment of a Palestinian state with Abbas within a short time."

A number of other peace plans have been released as well.  Foreign Minister Tzippi Livni has a regional peace plan of her own, as does Defense Minister Peretz (he advocates exploring the Saudi Initiative as a basis for talks).  And an Olmert confidant, Shlomo Breznitz, is set to release a plan calling for unilateral withdrawal from much of the West Bank followed by a European-led trusteeship - along the lines of the force still stationed in Bosnia - while a Palestinian state is set up.

These plans, while worthy of consideration, may well be premature.  But the energy they generate can be compelling since Rice gives indications that she might be ready for even unconventional moves.  

The Iraq Study Group report, headed by James Baker and Lee Hamilton and released last month, called for an American diplomatic offensive in the Middle East to improve the US image and standing in the Arab world to better meet the challenge of stabilizing Iraq.  Engaging in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict was a major focus of that strategy.  By restarting talks between Israelis and Palestinians, Secretary Rice is taking the first step.  But the United States will not be able to reap the benefits of this engagement unless it is sustained, serious, and eventually goes beyond the realm of "informal discussions" and into real negotiations.

The conventional wisdom says that a peace process will not succeed at this point because the main players involved - Olmert, and Abbas - are relatively weak.  But, as Olmert and Abbas know, the only way to improve their relative positions is to achieve diplomatic progress.  As US Ambassador to Israel Richard Jones told a Jerusalem Post interviewer, "If... people will see it is a serious process, see that the US is engaged... I think it will strengthen people. So don't assume that [Olmert and Abbas] will be as weak at the end of the process as they are now."

Despite the political instability in Israel and Palestine, both populations remain committed to a two-state solution to the conflict.  That is worth bearing in mind as Rice prepares for next month's meeting.