The Saudis Re-enter the Picture

Four years after it was introduced, the Saudi Plan - the ambitious and controversial initiative for a comprehensive Israel-Arab peace - might be back on the international agenda.

The Saudi plan - offered as a comprehensive solution to the Arab-Israeli conflict -- was introduced in 2002 and a tougher version was endorsed by the Arab League at its summit in Beirut.  Its stated goal was the achievement of full peace and normalization between Israel and all the member states of the Arab League (i.e., the entire Arab world).

Although recognizing the significance of the offer of normalization, the Israelis rejected the plan out of hand.  For them, the Arab League plan was a non-starter because (1) it called for Israel to withdraw from the West Bank, Gaza, and the Golan Heights as a precondition for negotiations leading toward normalized relations and peace and (2) it demanded the right of return for Palestinian refugees from 1948 and 1967 which Israelis believe would destroy their state.  Also, it did not allow for territorial compromise or land swaps on the West Bank.  In other words, the settlement blocks adjoining Jerusalem would have to be handed over to the Palestinians, something that even Yasir Arafat understood would not happen.

But the plan died not so much because of its terms - they might have been negotiable - but because, at the same time it was being presented in Beirut, a suicide bomber killed 30 Israelis at a hotel in Netanya.  That attack led to Israel's far-reaching military incursion into the West Bank, the most fighting between Israelis and Palestinians in years.

But the plan may be ready for a second coming.

According to media reports, Saudi Arabia and other moderate Arab states, are looking to revisit the plan, but in an amended form (withdrawal from territory would be a goal of negotiations rather than a precondition for them).  These reports indicate that the aim is to have the plan codified in the form of a United Nations resolution that will be presented to the Security Council.  An alternative is to convene a Geneva or Madrid-like international conference with the new Arab League plan on the table.

It is this developing process that makes the stories in the Israeli press about a secret meeting between Prime Minister Olmert and an official "close" to Saudi King Abdullah all the more tantalizing.

According to the Israeli press, the meeting took place two weeks ago in an undisclosed location.  The reports claim that Olmert and his interlocutor discussed ways to deal with the shared danger from Iran and from Islamic radicalism in general, including Hamas.  If the meeting took place, it is inconceivable that the Saudi initiative and the state of the peace process with the Palestinians did not come up as well.

So could this be a turning point in the peace process?  It's possible. Israel and Saudi Arabia find themselves facing the same set of regional challenges in the long-term and may view cooperation as mutually beneficial.

Additionally, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is scheduled to visit the region in the coming weeks, amid reports that President Bush is considering a visit to the Middle East soon after the November midterm elections.

Why Now?

The war in Lebanon was an eye-opener not just for Israel and the US, but for the whole Middle East.

Analysts in Arab capitals are saying that Iran interpreted Hezbollah's military resilience as a validation of its strategy to export its radical Shiite ideology and terrorism to the western reaches of the Middle East.  Furthermore, President Ahmadinejad conceivably views the Hezbollah success (relative success that it was) as having produced a shift in the regional power balance that may allow him to achieve his goal of a nuclear Iran.

For Egypt, Jordan and other moderate Arabs, the perceived validation of Iran's strategy is a direct threat to their moderate regimes.  Saudi Arabia is feeling the heat too, as even there Hezbollah and other radicals are growing in popularity. Saudi Arabia's initial condemnation of Hezbollah's attacks at the start of the war perhaps indicates an understanding in Riyadh that Saudi Arabia and Israel may be sharing part of the same boat.

For Israel, the war reinforced the danger from Iran-sponsored terrorist groups and the unfeasibility of maintaining the status quo in the West Bank.  Many analysts suggested that Israel's defense of the territories may have come at the expense of defending the north from Hezbollah, Syria and, ultimately, Iran.

The war also weakened Olmert's political position at home and pretty much eradicated support for his "realignment plan" - a proposed unilateral withdrawal that could have decisively altered the status quo in the West Bank.

There is little surprise, then, that Olmert would consider expanding his range of contacts by consulting with the Saudis as he searches for a political breakthrough. It is worth noting that Israelis of all political stripes support Olmert's decision to seek contacts with Saudi Arabia, even those who bitterly criticized his handling of the war in the north.  Former Foreign Minister and Likud MK Silvan Shalom called the meeting a "tremendous achievement."  On the other end of the spectrum, Yossi Beilin also welcomed any dialogue with the initiators of the Arab League initiative.

Meanwhile, polls this week show a strong majority of Israelis and Palestinians in favor of resuming bilateral negotiations.  Palestinian pollster Khalil Shikaki found that more than 70% of Palestinians support immediate negotiations between Abbas and Olmert, and an Israeli poll conducted by researchers at Hebrew University found that 67% of Israelis want talks with the Palestinians, including Hamas if necessary.

The bottom line is that as Israelis look forward to a new year, a number of forces are coalescing toward a new consensus on the need for diplomatic action.  On issues ranging from Lebanon to Iran to the Palestinians, Israel is finding likeminded partners in unlikely places.  The United States should exploit this constellation of events to move the process forward. The good news is that it appears ready to do just that.

By David Dreilinger and IPF Staff