Shaking Off the Old Politics

The seismic shift in Israel's political landscape is nothing less than a political "Intifada," on our side of the fence.  In just over two months, the conventional wisdom has been shaken to its core, giving rise to a slew of anxieties yet also opening up a whole new set of possibilities. 

As 2005 drew to a close, the country was reeling from the big bang that Ariel Sharon ignited in the political arena when he bolted from the Likud and created Kadima, a new centrist party pledging to lead Israel forward toward peace (or an approximation thereof) and prosperity.  Labor's brash new leader Amir Peretz had rushed onto the scene with determination and flair, ready to shift the national discourse to social-economic issues and address the "real" concerns of the majority of the nation.  Bibi Netanyahu, who had resigned from the Cabinet during the disengagement, sought to energize the anti-Sharon faithful while rapidly cleaning house to rid Likud of troublemakers.

But scant weeks after declaring the creation of Kadima, Ariel Sharon lingers in a deep coma, unable to divulge his unarticulated plans for Israel's future.  With both Ehud Olmert and Binyamin Netanyahu claiming inheritance of Sharon's political "path," the whole political enterprise is turned bizarrely on its head.  The polling of recent days surprises even the most unflappable observers.  Contrary to what experts and pundits predicted about the one-man party and the cult of personality that fueled it, Kadima is soaring in popularity, taking on a new life of its own.  As strong momentum propels Ehud Olmert, the smooth and confident acting Prime Minister, and invigorates his still-embryonic party, Labor and Likud are scrambling to stop the precipitous nose-dives both have taken in the polls. 

Earlier this week, Israel's financial daily Globes published a survey, conducted by Prof. Yitzhak Katz of the Maagar Mochot research institute, that gave Kadima 52 seats, Likud 21 and Labor a mere 12.  A less extravagant Yediot Aharonot weekend poll also showed Kadima holding strong with 42 seats, with Labor at 17, and Likud 13.   Although it is conceivable that these findings represent "sympathy" for the ailing Prime Minister, Olmert's pitch-perfect performance thus far is helping to solidify his base, and prove that Kadima -- without Sharon or any firm platform -- is rapidly becoming the people's choice.

But as intriguing as the political horse race is, it's just part of the story of Israel's stunning political makeover.  Another dramatic development is that the three primary contenders - Peretz, Olmert and Netanyahu - represent a younger cadre of leaders, with nary an ex-general among them.  The torch has finally been passed to a new generation of policy-makers who will have the mandate to complete the work of the founding fathers, and determine, once and for all, the borders of the State of Israel.   A similar trend is apparent within Labor, whose primary election of January 17 landed the experienced parliamentarians and former cabinet ministers Isaac Herzog and Ophir Pines-Paz, both in their 40s, at the top of the party list.  The same was true within Likud, whose voting members thrust an unknown back-bench MK named Moshe Kahlon into the number two slot, while shoving many former ministers (including the orotund veteran David Levy), and virtually all of the 13 Likud anti-disengagement rebels, below the top ten. 

We are, in short, witnessing, what Bradley Burston, the online editor of Ha'aretz, calls the "radical center".  Kadima has given voice to the silent majority, the 60%-plus of the Israeli people who, according to recently published findings of the Hebrew University's Truman Center, rank the need for a Jewish majority and for peace as the highest national values, while ranking the territorial "Greater Israel" agenda as the lowest. More than 60% support the evacuation of more settlements for peace, demonstrating a continuing and profound shift in Israeli public opinion.  Since the outbreak of the 2000 Intifada, the Truman Center reports, Israel has moved steadily from the right to the center, with virtually flat movement on the left. Some 70% of the population supported the disengagement from Gaza and the evacuation of settlements.  By reflecting these sentiments, Kadima is able to win over supporters from across the spectrum, voters ranging from Likud to Meretz, who -- perhaps unbeknownst even to themselves -- were in search of a political home. 

If Olmert's behavior over the last two years is any indication, we can expect him to keep pushing the unilateral approach.  It was Olmert who proposed unilateral disengagement a year before Sharon raised it publicly, having concluded that Israel urgently needs to separate from the Palestinians and withdraw from settlements, with or without a negotiating partner.  According to the Truman poll of December 5th, half of the Israeli public will support further unilateral moves.  By contrast, the December Steinmetz poll, while showing that 55.5% of the Israeli people think the unilateral disengagement from Gaza proved to be the right step, also found that a 61% majority prefer returning to negotiations with the aim of reaching a permanent settlement.  But if the PA continues to falter, and Hamas makes a strong showing - the polls are giving them 25 to 40 percent - in next week's elections, it will become increasingly difficult for Israel to identify a viable partner to invite to the table.  

Ehud Olmert faces no easy task.  He must rapidly internalize the enormous demands and pressures of being Prime Minister.  Settlers are rioting in Hebron.  Palestinians will be voting in East Jerusalem, where Hamas will compete under the pseudonym of the Change and Reform List.  Iran's nuclear program continues apace as its president escalates his toxic fulminations against Israel and the Jewish people.  Amid all this, Olmert must keep his eye on the main mission that history has suddenly assigned him -- to reassure and inspire a population that has come to terms with not only the end of the Sharon era, but also of the dream of Greater Israel.