Stormy Weather

Volume 4.24

Roberta Fahn Schoffman, representing IPF in Israel, heads Mindset Media and Strategic Consulting.

Summer rains, a gentle blessing, are rare in the Middle East.  Now and then, at long intervals, a few drops of precious precipitation provide a brief measure of relief from the unrelenting heat of the season.  Thus the choice of "Summer Rains" as the name of Israel's current military action against Gaza is a cruel and ironic misnomer.  For the only things raining these days from the skies are the crude missiles and rockets of Hamas, which menace the Jewish towns and villages of the northern Negev, and the retaliatory artillery shells and computer-guided missiles of the IDF.   No euphemism can conceal the black clouds of fear and hate rapidly spreading over the region.

Barely two weeks ago, when Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas met for the first time at Petra in Jordan, it seemed that the Prime Minister's pledge to President Bush at the White House -- to "exhaust every possibility to promote peace with the Palestinians, according to the road map" -- was a serious and viable intention.  But what has happened since then has thrown Israelis and Palestinians into the eye of a dark and violent storm.  An inexorable chain of events, starting with the barrage of Qassam rockets on Israeli towns, followed by the tragic killing of the Ghalia family on the Gaza beach, targeted Israeli attacks on key Palestinian militants, the killing of two IDF soldiers and kidnapping of Gilad Shalit in the Kerem Shalom attack, the brutal murder of 18 year old settler Eliyahu Asheri, and the arrest of Hamas cabinet ministers and members of parliament, has created a new and dangerous reality.

Without fully penetrating the Gaza Strip, the IDF has returned in force with limited air, sea and land incursions. Israel's refusal to respond to the 6 a.m. July 4th ultimatum issued by the kidnappers further depleted hopes for the efforts, led by Egypt, to stave off an escalation with mediation.  As the Shalit family anxiously awaited news about the fate of their son, observers were warning of a drawn-out operation, one that could take months to be resolved. Meanwhile, as Palestinian civilians suffer collectively from a lack of food and electricity, a question arises in the minds of most Israelis: Is the real objective to secure the safe release of Gilad, or to bring down the Hamas government?

It's hard to see any promising signs in the smoky haze of this overheated summer.  Certainly the leaders of Israel's government, novices in their new jobs, are hoping to emerge from the crisis with a stronger image and wider public approval.  Defense Minister Amir Peretz, in particular, has been thrust literally into a trial by fire, forced to prove his leadership skills in a particularly complex and perilous situation.  So far his ratings are low.  Last Friday's Yediot Aharonot/Dahaf poll found that 62% of the Israeli public view his performance as "not good" and only 32% as "good", and 53% feel that his lack of military and diplomatic experience has influenced the way in which he has handled the crisis.  Peretz's rhetoric has, accordingly, become more grave and bellicose as he works hard to gain control.  As the Hamas militant groups holding the abducted soldier demanded the release of 1,000 Palestinian prisoners, Peretz directed IDF jets to buzz Bashar Assad's palace and bluntly advised the Syrian President, who gives refuge to Hamas political head Khaled Mashal, "to open his eyes because the responsibility is laid at his door."

Olmert fares better than Peretz, with 53% viewing his performance as "good", but this is hardly a stellar number for a man who claims the mantle of Ariel Sharon; indeed 42% of the public flatly rated him "not good."  The Prime Minister took a lot of criticism for his extensive foreign traveling during the first critical weeks of his administration, dining in London and Paris while missiles were dropping on Sderot.  He has yet to prove if he has the right stuff needed to lead this unforgiving country. The message sent from the Prime Minister's office this week is a no-nonsense declaration: "Israel will not give in to extortion by the Palestinian Authority and the Hamas government, which are led by murderous terrorist organizations."  What the public wants to see from him, however, is a way out of the crisis.

Following Sharon's incapacitation, Olmert's Kadima Party seemed to have found a formula with which a silent majority of Israelis could identify.  Now, however, his political instincts may be off-base in this more complicated scenario. With 53% of Israelis wanting to conduct negotiations for the return of Gilad Shalit, and only 43% supporting a military operation, the public is sending Olmert a clear message: avoid the use of force; negotiate a way back from the brink. Fifty-eight percent are in favor of releasing prisoners if it becomes clear that otherwise the kidnapped soldier would be executed, and 51% oppose assassinating Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh.

Whether in the midst of all this Olmert can keep his much-touted "realignment" plan in alignment remains to be seen.  Opponents of disengagement from Palestinian territory are hoping that the present situation will prove their point to the Israeli public. The withdrawal from Gaza only brought terror and rockets closer; any attempt to flee the West Bank, they argue, will bring even greater violence to the heart of the Jewish nation. The public isn't so sure.  The weekend poll still showed 47% in favor and 47% opposed to realignment. Olmert, for his part, can point to the chaos and easily claim that since there is no partner to talk to, there is no alternative but unilateral moves.

Maybe, despite it all, the two sides will be talking again. Two days after Gilad Shalit was kidnapped, the political leadership of Hamas and Fatah managed to put an initial signature on a declaration of unity based on the so-called "Prisoners' Document."  Miraculous as it sounds, the parties seemed to agree on a two-state solution and the recognition of the PLO as sole representative of the Palestinian people in negotiations with Israel.  Given the frightening events of these blazing summer weeks, the dramatic document, fragile and ambiguous though it may be, has been relegated to the back pages.  But it may just be that this interrupted agreement offers a glimmer of hope.  When things settle down again - and, hopefully, with Gilad Shalit safely home - Abbas, empowered to negotiate on behalf of the Palestinians, must quickly demonstrate that he is indeed a partner.