Success: Administration Gets a Ceasefire

Volume 1.54

Israelis and Palestinians take a cautious step forward

For the first time in almost three years there is progress on the Israeli-Palestinian front.  IDF forces have already withdrawn from Gaza and Bethlehem, and if all goes well there will soon be more Israeli departures. This development follows Tuesday's meeting in Jerusalem between Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon and his Palestinian counterpart Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen).

That meeting was significant both because the atmospherics were good (the two leaders dropped the icy reserve that marked previous joint appearances in favor of something just short of bonhomie) and because substantive progress was made.

At the meeting yesterday, Sharon and Abbas agreed to form four joint committees to establish cooperation in the areas of security, economic development, ending incitement, and negotiating political differences.  Sharon agreed to consider the release of up to 5000 Palestinian prisoners.

The prisoner issue is already looming large as a potential deal breaker. Abbas is insisting on the release of long-time prisoners in Israeli jails, mostly Palestinian veterans of the long struggle with Israel.  These are precisely the prisoners Sharon is most reluctant to see out of jail.  Sharon, like previous Israeli prime ministers, has little problem releasing run-of-the-mill prisoners, administrative detainees and small-time convicts of one kind or another.  His reluctance to release those with "blood on their hands" (often the very "freedom fighters" the Palestinians desperately want out) makes a meeting of the minds on this issue very difficult.

Nevertheless,  both sides appear optimistic. The results of Tuesday's Sharon-Abbas meeting indicate  that the weekend ceasefire (hudna) agreement between the Palestinian Authority and militant Palestinian groups, and the withdrawal from northern Gaza, are not isolated events but are rather part and parcel of a new diplomatic opening.

The reactions in Israel toward these developments were strongly positive. Israeli forces in Gaza were perhaps the most enthusiastic about the weekend developments as they were finally granted leave from  northern Gaza for a week's furlough, and the benefits that go with it: "a cold shower, mom's cooking...and sleep."

In the Israeli media the positive developments were heralded in festive blue headlines reserved for only special occasions with many expressing the hope that the cease-fire would be a shot in the arm to the ailing tourist sector and the Israeli economy in general. 

On Monday Palestinians, for the first time in two years, were able to drive from Gaza to Rafa without being subjected to intrusive roadblocks. In celebration, many motorists cheered and beeped their horns as they drove past Israeli military installations.

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After a thousand days of violence the positive progress made over the weekend allowed both Israelis and Palestinians to let out -guardedly - a collective sigh of relief. While both sides were skeptical about the long-term viability of both the cease-fire and IDF withdrawal from Gaza, vast majorities of both were happy to finally hear some good news.

Active American mediation and involvement deserves much of the credit for the events of the weekend. Israel's handover of northern Gaza was the first on-the-ground sign that the Road Map is taking hold. In fact, the Gaza and Bethlehem withdrawals were negotiated on Friday night by US envoy John Wolf.  Wolf, in his first negotiating round in the region, proved to be a forceful, hands-on advocate of US positions.  He told each side what he viewed as their obligations under the withdrawal agreement, not accepting "no" as an answer. In the end, he achieved the Gaza withdrawal, a Palestinian agreement to stop terror acts before they happen and an Israel promise to end preventive targeted killings.  That was all before the two prime ministers met.

It is also clear that National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice's visit to the region helped make the ceasefire a reality.  She was heavily featured among the Middle Eastern media and cleverly used the intense coverage of her trip as a platform for promoting the next steps of the Road Map. Both sides wanted to please Rice and neither wanted to be viewed as responsible for her going back to Washington empty-handed. Specifically she pressed Israel against any unilateral moves -targeted killings, erecting the security fence, and toward removing the illegal outposts. (Her objection to the fence was particularly controversial in Israel.) To Palestinians, she stressed the importance of combating any and all planned terrorist attacks in the territories, while taking steps to dismantle Hamas.

Despite the Israeli government's official reaction to the hudna -- that Israel is not party to it and that the hudna imposes no obligations upon it - its existence is a significant factor for Israeli policymakers.  They understand that any period of calm will increase Bush administration expectations that Israel will live up to its obligations under the roadmap. No matter that Sharon does not recognize the hudna, it affects everything - so long as acts of terror do not disrupt it. But the Israeli prime minister was careful not to let stray actions by local militias of the Al Aqsa brigades, especially the killing of a Bulgarian construction worker, disrupt the new process.

The hardest compromises are still ahead and a renewal of the violence is just a bump in the Road Map away. To keep the ball rolling the US and its Arab partners in the region (especially Egypt and Jordan) must continue to play an active role and ensure that both sides carry out their responsibilities.

The US hand will be considerably strengthened if the administration moves quickly toward implementing a full scale aid program to the Palestinian Authority.  Over the weekend, Rice told both Israelis and Palestinians that USAID would increase. It is also reported that the administration will end the ban on direct USAID to the Palestinian Authority which was viewed as necessary when Yassir Arafat was in charge. On Wednesday, word came that an emergency $30 million package would be delivered "for road, home, agriculture and water improvement projects" to help "ease humanitarian conditions.''

In an interview with the Miami Herald, Jeff Feltman, the acting U.S. consul-general in Jerusalem, said ''We want to help the Palestinian Authority deliver resources that are responsive to the needs of the people. "He said that the administration goals are both to help the Palestinian people and to help the Palestinian Authority supplant Hamas as the principal supplier of humanitarian assistance. "'We feel that Hamas financing should be replaced," he said. In other words, the US can weaken Hamas and strengthen Palestinian moderates by increasing aid and making sure that it has the PA's stamp on it.

The Bush administration's strategy is clearly multifaceted.  Diplomacy, aid, forceful persuasion, rewarding friends and weakening foes are all part of the mix.  The Bush team may have gotten into the game late but, nevertheless, is achieving results.  Presidential persistence is paying off, and if it continues more surprising successes just might be on the way.

-- Written by MJ Rosenberg and Ben Gruenbaum, Israel Policy Forum