A Tale of Three Houses

The Israel-Hamas cease-fire has held for over a month. Quiet on the Gaza-Israel border has reduced Israeli calls for action against Kassam rockets, and garnered support for a prisoner exchange with Hamas to release captive solider Gilad Shalit.

But, just a few hundred meters from the border, Gaza has not been quiet. Hamas-Fatah fighting escalated to a crisis point on Saturday, when a Hamas crack down on a Fatah-aligned clan killed eleven, injured around one hundred, and sent Fatah-aligned fighters fleeing to Israel.

If it continues, intra-Palestinian fighting could lead to the undoing of the Shalit prisoner exchange and the "final status" agreement being negotiated by Mahmoud Abbas and Ehud Olmert. It could also spell the end of Abbas' West Bank government. If some kind of reconciliation occurs, however, it could be a turning point, i.e., the point at which Israel is able to negotiate with a united Palestinian house.

Either way, the pro-Fatah fighters seeking refuge from Hamas in Israel illustrate that the Israeli-Palestinian and the internal Palestinian conflicts are linked. Without some kind of Palestinian reconciliation, the chances of an Israeli-Palestinian agreement on Shalit and final status issues are diminished, and agreements that take only half of the Palestinians into account are doomed to failure.

What happened?

When a remote controlled bomb blew up a car carrying five Hamas operatives and a six-year-old on July 25, Hamas blamed Palestinian President Abbas' Fatah Party-not Israel. This was not unprecedented-threats and skirmishes, as well as failed attempts at reconciliation, followed Hamas' takeover of the Gaza Strip last June-but it was an escalation.

Hamas politician Said Siam called it a "security campaign against rogue elements." The Hilles clan was armed. But the fighting, which included mortar shells and grenades, was also an attack on one of the few remaining Fatah-aligned strongholds. It left several dead and hundreds detained or on the run.

Close to two hundred clan members escaped to Israel's border, including their wounded leader, Ahmad Hilles. Then the confusion began. Decisions changed about where to send the escapees, back to Gaza to fight or to refuge in the West Bank. Abbas had requested that the fighters be returned to the Strip, signaling that the fight was not over. But Hilles fighters, such as Amegdat Hilles, countered that this would mean sure death. "If I return, I die," he told Yediot Acharonoth while in Israel today.

Israel was left to arbitrate. According to today's reports, 88 of the fighters were transported to the West Bank, a few dozen were returned to Gaza (Ibrahim Barzak reported in The Associated Press that 32 of those were detained by Hamas, but that all but five were subsequently released), and several, including Ahmad Hilles, are still being treated, and questioned, in Israeli hospitals.

What does this mean for Fatah?

The battle for control of the Palestinian territories has not abated. Hamas chased out a formidable foe, and took over Shejaia, one of the last pro-Fatah bastions-planting its flags in the streets to mark its victory. This is another move in Hamas' consolidation of power in Gaza, which many fear will impact the feud in the West Bank.

Saturday's clashes bode ill for Palestinian unity talks, and will undoubtedly affect negotiations to exchange POW Gilad Shalit for Palestinian prisoners.

The background

Before Hamas ruled Gaza, several rival family clans and militias had been competing for turf and dominance. After Hamas routed Fatah forces and took control of Gaza in 2007, it began to crack down on Gaza's numerous armed groups. As outlined in the International Crisis Group report of March 2008, "Ruling Palestine I: Gaza under Hamas," Hamas streamlined its own security forces while exerting its control over militias, confiscating weapons, and stopping unauthorized training and attacks. (A task that Fatah has yet to accomplish within its own fractured forces.)

The Hilles clan was one of the groups that remained independent or, perhaps, self serving.

Before Saturday's raid, Fatah flags dominated Shejaia and its leaders were known to back the movement. However, the Hilles clan has been linked to different groups, and previously accused of having backed Hamas' June 2007 coup. According to Amegdat Hilles, "Not all of our family belongs to Fatah. Some are Islamic Jihad and some are unaffiliated with any organization."

What does this mean for the cease-fire and Shalit release?

Israel's cease-fire with Hamas has been relatively stable since it went into effect on June 19. Continued Palestinian fighting, and further Israeli entanglement in the feud, could destabilize it.

The negotiations with Hamas to exchange Gilad Shalit for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners have had previous implications for Fatah. Both groups seek to free their own fighters and political leaders, but also want the credit for liberating some of the 11,000 Palestinians in Israeli jails.

Hamas' prisoner list includes several former Hamas cabinet ministers whom Israel arrested to pressure it to release Shalit days after he was kidnapped. (Yesterday, Israel released one of those politicians, former Hamas Finance Minister Omar Abdel Razek). The list also reportedly includes prominent Fatah leaders, particularly Marwan Barghouti, whom many Palestinians, as well as Israelis, see as the one person with the popular support to re-establish Fatah's hold on Gaza.

Israel has been debating what effect a deal with Hamas will have on Fatah. But with Fatah and Hamas at war, the question is not only about how the prisoner exchange will be accomplished, but whether it will take place at all.

Tel Aviv University Professor Eyal Zisser argued in the daily Israel Hayom on Monday that intra-Palestinian fighting is likely to weaken, or at least preoccupy, Hamas so that it lacks "the time" and the "energy to invest in promoting a deal for Gilad Shalit's release." Hamas may even now see Shalit as a bargaining chip in its war with Fatah and assume that "as long as they have the Israeli soldier, Israel will refrain from attacking" their stronghold, Zisser went on to say.

Arab intervention

According to Hanan Ashrawi, a Palestinian legislator, the internal Palestinian conflict has reached a "highly dangerous and continuous escalation," that has become "difficult to resolve between the two movements." In a statement to the Palestinian daily Al Quds-Al Arabi, she called for Arab intervention, adding that Egyptian involvement was necessary.

Egypt has already been busy mediating a prisoner exchange between Hamas and Israel. However, its role has been shifting increasingly toward intra-Palestinian mediation.

According to al-Hayat, a Hamas delegation left Cairo last week without a breakthrough on the Shalit front. Instead, their delegate, Musa Abu Marzuq, passed along an invitation to 13 Palestinian factions to come to Cairo to "conduct a comprehensive national dialogue." A prisoner exchange will either be part of a Palestinian reconciliation, or, more likely, will have to wait for the fighting to end.

The Catch-22

Ashrawi is skeptical about the likelihood of a national unity government of Fatah and Hamas. "We did not see any real dialogue efforts when the circumstances were better," she told Al Quds.

It is clear that something will have to give, however, and the question is who will give, and in what order.

This time around, the incident ended after a day of fighting, and did not spread to other towns. Israel's involvement also passed without incident. But what if there's a next time? Hamas-Fatah fighting can only have a deleterious impact on Israel. For better or worse, all three groups are tied to each other. Israel's dealings with Hamas and Fatah separately are tied to Hamas and Fatah's relations with each other.

The fruits of dealing with Israel-easing the conditions of daily life, opening borders, freeing prisoners-could help either faction gain popularity and secure its rule. As long as Fatah and Hamas are warring, however, those gains are destabilized. And any gains for Israel, could be sabotaged by the party Israel leaves out-Hamas and the militant groups-or could sabotage Israel's peace partner-Fatah.

All roads may not lead to Rome, but they do intersect somewhere along the way.