The United States' Attention Turns to Syria

Middle East Special Envoy George Mitchell has dispatched his top advisor on Syria, Fred Hof, to Jerusalem and Damascus, raising speculation about the resumption of direct Israeli-Syrian talks that have been frozen since 2008.

Hof, a senior advisor to Mitchell, will spend three days in Israel with top government officials, including Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu, Defense Minister Ehud Barak, and National Security Advisor Uzi Arad. He will then depart for Damascus to meet with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and Foreign Minister Walid al-Muallem.

The Timing

This could be an auspicious moment for the resumption of dialogue. Both Israeli and Syrian officials have stated qualified openness to renewing Israeli-Syrian negotiations. Prime Minister Netanyahu's office, for example, recently released a statement that said, "Israel's stance on the Syrian issue is known-it is willing to renew negotiations without preconditions." President Assad also affirmed his intention to begin negotiations: "We still believe that we need to conclude a serious dialogue to lead us to peace."

The United States has also softened its approach to Syria-George Mitchell's June 13th visit to Damascus was the United States' highest ranking visit to Syria in four years. President Obama has announced his intention to appoint an ambassador to Syria for the first time since 2005.

A peace deal could be attractive to Syria. Over the last five years, Syria has suffered from declining influence in the region and a collapsing economy. The recent electoral defeat of Hezbollah and the March 8 coalition in Lebanon's June general election also reduced Syria's power in Lebanon. In addition, the increasing instability and radicalization of Iran, Syria's closest ally, further isolates Syria. By distancing itself from Iran, Hamas, and Hezbollah and strengthening its relationship with the United States, Syria could increase its regional influence.

Syria's economy also continues to struggle. According to the U.S. State Department, "Syria's rate of oil production has been decreasing steadily, from a peak close to 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 1995 down to approximately 425,000 bpd in 2005. Experts generally agree that Syria will become a net importer of petroleum not later than 2012." By strengthening its relationship with the United States and Europe through an Israeli-Syrian peace deal, Syria could continue to refinance its heavy foreign debt and attract foreign investment to spur economic growth.

Prime Minister Netanyahu could also benefit from an Israeli-Syrian treaty. Such a deal would demonstrate his commitment to the peace process and improve his relationship with President Obama.

However, Prime Minister Netanyahu will face strong opposition to a Golan withdrawal. According to Hof, polls consistently show that 70 percent of Israelis are unwilling to give up the Golan Heights. Public support may be the deciding factor; Netanyahu today announced his support for the Golan Referendum Bill, which would require a referendum to ratify any territorial concessions Israel makes regarding the Golan Heights. Though hawkish, this proposal will free Netanyahu's hand to negotiate by placing the accountability for the approval of any agreement on the Israeli public.

The Proposal

Fred Hof's role as a senior advisor to George Mitchell indicates the direction in which Israeli-Syrian negotiations may proceed. While working at the United States Institute of Peace, Hof wrote a proposal in March 2009 entitled "Mapping Peace between Syria and Israel" that, according to Yedioth Ahronoth's Uri Misgav, Mitchell has subsequently adopted as the foundation for new Israeli-Syrian negotiations.

Hof's proposal expands on ideas first offered in 1999 and later drafted in the International Crisis Group's recommendation for a "Treaty of Peace" in 2002.

Recognizing the psychological importance of the Golan Heights to both the Syrians and Israelis, Hof's proposal stipulates that any agreement must provide both sides access to the territory.

Since Israel relies on the Sea of Galilee as its primary natural reservoir to serve its dense population centers, Hof's proposal avoids giving Syria the ability to increase its population density in the Golan Heights and possibly jeopardize Israel's water supply. Instead, the proposal strives to "minimize the Syrian impact on waters vital to Israel's economy, facilitate Israeli civilian access to the full circumference of the Sea, and carve out an area where Syrian-Israeli people-to-people contacts might easily and informally take place."

Hof's proposal would create a Jordan Valley-Golan Heights Environmental Preserve that transfers the territory to Syrian sovereignty while retaining Israel's rights to the water and allowing Israeli citizens access to the preserve.

In essence "Syria gets the land and regulated access to the water, and Israel gets the water and regulated access to the land." Bi-national access to the preserve will further increase Israeli-Syrian civilian contact and contribute to the development of a "warm peace."

The territory would be completely demilitarized and with demilitarization guaranteed by the United States. The Israeli withdrawal will take place over a two year period that begins upon the signing of the treaty, which will "launch an extended period of time during which its terms and any side agreements or understandings will be implemented."

Hof does not offer the delineation of the border, implying that the border will be negotiated. He does, however, offer a list of over two dozen existing national parks that could form the basis of a Jordan Valley-Golan Heights Environmental Preserve.

Though Hof offers a practical and feasible solution, he neglects a major source of contention within the Israeli-Syrian relationship: terrorist sponsorship. It is unlikely that Israel will reach an agreement if Syria does not promise to renounce its ties with Hezbollah and Hamas.

Hof contends that Syrian renunciation of terror is a consequence, not a stipulation of the treaty, since "Syria would be unable to uphold its end of normal peaceful relations." Given Israel's previous negotiating style, however, Israel will demand this concession in writing. The question will become: will Syria be willing to cut itself off from Hezbollah, Hamas, and possibly Iran for peace with Israel and a strengthened relationship with the United States? To many, this is the key question in Israeli-Syrian negotiations.

Clear obstacles stand in the way of Israeli-Syrian peace. Nevertheless, the current climate in the region, combined with Hof's innovative proposal may provide the greatest chance for an agreement that we have seen since the Clinton administration.