The U.S. and Israel React to the Iranian Demonstrations

For the past week, the demonstrations in Iran have dominated Israeli and American newspapers. As the rallies continue, politicians and pundits discuss the proper response to the protests and their impact on Israel and the United States.

Political Leaders

In a press conference on Tuesday, President Obama carefully strengthened his criticism of the Iranian regime's responses to the demonstrations. "I have made it clear that the United States respects the sovereignty of the Islamic Republic of Iran, and is not interfering in Iran's affairs," Obama said. "But we must also bear witness to the courage and dignity of the Iranian people, and to a remarkable opening within Iranian society. And we deplore violence against innocent civilians anywhere that it takes place." Obama concluded, "I strongly condemn these unjust actions."

This weekend, Israeli Prime Minster Benyamin Netanyahu and President Shimon Peres spoke publicly for the first time about the demonstrations. Both leaders voiced their support for the U.S. policy toward the protests, and Netanyahu refused to "second guess the President of the United States." Netanyahu and Peres stated that the U.S. and Israel should minimize public statements to prevent the Iranian regime from manipulating their statements into proof of a Western conspiracy. One Israeli official further commented on the role of the U.S. in the demonstrations: "The protesters don't need support from Obama right now; there is nothing he can do for them."

In an interview with Meet the Press on Sunday, Netanyahu cautiously applauded the demonstrations and stated his desire for Iranians to be free of an oppressive regime. He further welcomed the possibility of an Iran that neither seeks nuclear proliferation nor sponsors terror, and stressed the need for Iran to change policy "both inside and outside."

Netanyahu does not view the protests as a "game changer." Though the demonstrations are a step in the right direction, Netanyahu said that the endgame must involve not a regime change, but rather, a policy change. Netanyahu concluded that his main objective remained the prevention of a nuclear armed Iran.

President Shimon Peres agreed with Netanyahu during his Jewish Agency Board of Governors meeting in Jerusalem, and speculated on the impact of the demonstrations on Israel: "I really don't know what will disappear first, their enriched uranium, or their poor government. Hopefully, the poor government will disappear." Like Netanyahu, Peres conveyed his support for the Iranian people, and acknowledged the importance of the demonstrations.

Israeli Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman reiterated Israel's policy supporting the protestors in an official visit to Canada on Monday. Like Netanyahu, he stressed the threat of a nuclear armed Iran. Lieberman, however, went a step further than his counterparts in their reactions to the demonstrations, calling for "a decisive response from the international community," that included "an urgent UN security council meeting."

Media

Ma'ariv correspondents Ben Caspit and Ben-Dror Yemini criticize the West's strategy of limiting public statements. Caspit and Yemini compare the West's harsh responses to Israeli actions, such as Operation Cast Lead, to their quiet reactions to the violent Iranian crackdown on protestors. They conclude by quoting a source closely involved in the situation in Iran who argued that the protestors need backing from the West, especially from Obama.

Jerusalem Post columnist Barry Rubin agrees with Caspit and Yemini's analysis, and offers a broader analysis regarding the regional impact of the demonstrations. Rubin writes that the protests will not significantly affect the Iranian regime, its policy, or Arab perceptions of Iran. Instead, Western silence will only consolidate Iran's support and extend its influence in the region. Rubin concludes that the Iranian regime will accuse the West of conspiracy no matter what, and that accordingly Obama should speak out.

Yedioth Ahronoth correspondent Smadar Peri disagrees with Rubin on the regional impact of the Iranian demonstrations, and believes that the protests will force Arab leaders to change some of their domestic policies to prevent future unrest.

Peri reports that Egyptian President Mubarak does not intend to greet Iranian President Ahmadinejad at the airport for the conference for non-aligned nations in Sharm al Sheikh. Mubarak's hesitancy, she writes, as well as the generally silent response to Ahmadinejad's victory (only Bashar Assad issued a public congratulation) "attests to great nervousness."

Arab leaders are beginning to worry that their citizens will apply the Iranian citizens' anger to their own authoritarian regimes; as Peri concludes, "it is impossible to continue to ignore the street." Peri speculates, therefore, that Arab leaders will postpone elections and referendums and fix elections in a more subtle manner.

In an Israel Policy Forum interview, Director of the Center for Iranian Studies and Dean of Special Programs at Tel Aviv University David Menashri said that the demonstrations "played into the hands of Netanyahu"; the rallies affirm Netanyahu's arguments regarding the dictatorial nature of the Iranian regime. In the long run, however, Menashri said that a pragmatic regime will benefit Israel more than the current radical government.

Ephraim Kam, the Deputy Head for the Institute of National Security Studies, agrees with Menashri and acknowledges that the demonstrations "pose a serious challenge to the regime and Khamenei." Kam writes that while the regime will eventually suppress the protests, the threat of future unrest may prompt Iran to change some of its domestic policy. Iran's foreign policy, especially Iranian nuclear development, which was supported by all four candidates, will continue. The demonstrations, therefore, do not significantly impact Israel.

Kam concludes that Ahmadinejad's continuation in office may benefit Israel because his radical and belligerent statements could dissuade Western leaders from believing in the possibility of a comprehensive deal on Iranian nuclear development.

As the demonstrations continue, both Israel and the U.S. hope that the protests will lead to a change in policy, especially regarding nuclear proliferation and terrorist sponsorship.