This Was The Week That Was

From President Barack Obama's historic Cairo address to two critical elections--last Sunday in Lebanon and tomorrow in Iran--this has been a week of activity in the Middle East. The following is a review of what happened, what might happen next, and how that will affect the futures of Israel and Palestine.

Cairo

President Obama's speech in Cairo last week has been heralded as so transformative that some are pointing to it as the deciding factor in Lebanon's election on Sunday, when the pro-democracy "March 14" coalition won a parliamentary majority over the Hezbollah-allied "March 8" faction. 

Beirut

Most Lebanon analysts, however, point to a variety of factors in Sunday's election. The shift in America's regional image is one. But, according to an interview in the Middle East Bulletin with Mona Yacobian of the United States Institute of Peace, other reasons include the lack of Syrian influence over the election, as well as a real concern among some Lebanese over Hezbollah's power in Lebanon.

The March 14 victory could bolster President Obama's Middle East policy objectives of securing regional stability and reaching a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The real election results will not be seen, however, until a government is formed.  There is little doubt that the next Lebanese government will include members of both the March 14 and March 8 factions. The important question now is whether the Hezbollah-allied coalition will maintain a "blocking third" in government as a consequence of factional negotiations. If so, they will continue to have the ability to veto government decisions.

Tehran

The other election gripping the region is Iran's presidential election that will be held tomorrow. Its result will not transform the U.S.-Iran or Israel-Iran relationships overnight, as it is the clerical establishment that holds the most power. However, a victory for the reformist candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi over current President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will at least provide the possibility for a new posture in those relationships. (The United States has chosen not to pursue a more serious process of engagement with Iran until Iranians make their choice tomorrow or a week from now in a possible run-off if no candidate receives over 50 percent of the vote.) 

Jerusalem - Ramallah

Neither a reformist Iranian president nor a stable Lebanese government will bring about an Israeli-Palestinian settlement. Real progress will demand significant compromise not only from Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu's government, but also from the rival Fatah and Hamas Palestinian leaderships.

As long as Gaza and the West Bank are governed by two divided and hostile parties, the absence of a unity government will impede the peace process. For Israel, the question of whether it can implement a two-state agreement is currently symbolized by whether it is able or willing to end West Bank settlement expansion. On this question, the Obama and Netanyahu administrations are currently divided.  

Round 1: A Bush-Sharon Secret Understanding?

The Obama administration has called for settlement construction to stop completely. Israel's government calls that demand unfair because it does not provide for the needs of what they term "natural growth"--population growth due to the birthrate of existing settlers.

The debate heated up last week when Dov Weisglass, an advisor to former Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, wrote an op-ed in Yediot Acharonth claiming that Sharon made a secret understanding with former President George W. Bush that allowed for some West Bank construction. 

"Beginning in the mid-1990s Israel agreed not to build new settlements . . . but retained its right to expand existing settlements according to the principle of 'natural growth.' Through 2002, Israel proceeded on the basis of several 'understandings' that were reached between then Foreign Minister Shimon Peres and Colin Powell, though the Americans completely denied the existence of such understandings," Weisglass wrote.

This claim was subsequently refuted--anonymously--by former high-ranking Bush administration officials, one of whom told New York Times reporter Ethan Bronner that, "there was never an agreement to accept natural growth. . . . There was an effort to explore what natural growth would mean, but we weren't able to reach agreement on that."

Forging New Friendships

This debate belongs to previous administrations; neither the Obama nor the Netanyahu administrations are interested in squabbling over past understandings. On Monday, the White House reported that President Obama called Prime Minister Netanyahu for a friendly conversation. And on Tuesday, during his visit to Israel, Special Envoy George Mitchell confronted rumors of a U.S.-Israel dispute: "I want you to know that we come here to talk, not as adversaries in disagreement, but as friends in discussion, and we recognize that the issues are complex and many, but we hope that we can work our way through them to achieve . . . peace, security, and prosperity throughout the region."

Netanyahu's Dilemma

Prime Minister Netanyahu is in a bind. While the Americans are pressing him not only to accept a two-state solution but also to work to make it a reality, his right-wing government coalition is up in arms about any possible concession. Of course, opposition leader Tzipi Livni could potentially save Netanyahu by bringing the Kadima Party's twenty-eight seats into his coalition. Livni has already outlined the policy terms that could get her to join a Netanyahu government. "Kadima's way must be reflected in several very important areas," she explained at a party meeting in March. "The diplomatic process, the desire to continue the Annapolis process, reach a permanent settlement and find a solution for two nation states, which is in Israel's interests." She would likely demand that she should be prime minister for half the term in a "rotation" deal with Netanyahu.

Netanyahu's Opportunity 

For all of his political problems, Netanyahu has also been offered a major opportunity--to team up with a popular American president committed to resolving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

On Sunday, Netanyahu will have the spotlight. He plans to follow President Obama's speech in Cairo with a speech outlining his foreign policy plan and his position on Palestinian statehood. The speech could put Netanyahu in a political spot with his own coalition. However, it could also put him in a position to demonstrate his leadership and to forge a partnership with the United States that moves the Israeli-Palestinian conflict from status quo to change.