The Week of Cheney

With this Forum Fax we introduce an additional feature, a periodic Jerusalem update from IPF's Israel representative, Roberta Fahn Schoffman.  Fahn Schoffman's observations are offered in the context of a week that may well be remembered as the point at which the Bush administration genuinely hit its stride in Middle East policy.  Effectively using the first general to serve as U.S. Middle East envoy, Anthony Zinni, the tide may have begun to turn from violence to diplomacy.  And Vice President Cheney, by offering to meet with Chairman Arafat if he begins to implement the Tenet Plan, but refusing to meet with him now, demonstrated an adept mixing of carrots and sticks, rewards and punishments.

The Bush Administration's approach is not the shuttle diplomacy favored by Henry Kissinger nor is it the three-way summits or handshakes that so fascinated Presidents Carter and Clinton.  Instead, we are witnessing a new type of American policy, specifically adapted to the period after September 11 and to the dictates of the war on terrorism.  This is a regional approach, integrating the urgent pressures of the heated Israel-Palestinian confrontation with the continuing longer-term threat posed by Saddam Hussein.  It is a subtle combination of regional and Israeli-Palestinian policy, of working on Sharon and Arafat and of exploring the Saudi vision, of working for peace and against terrorism, of trying to stitch together a new Israeli-Palestinian modus vivendi while tearing asunder the stability of the current regime in Iraq.

Yet, while the diplomats, the tacticians, and the strategists make their moves, people on both sides must try to survive at the Middle East's ground zero.  Here is an account of the way one civilian on the front lines in Jerusalem views the current situation.

The Week of Cheney

Jerusalem - The week started like any other during these past months of relentless and escalating violence, despite growing anticipation preceding the visit of Vice President Dick Cheney.  A lone gunman in the center of Kfar Saba shot and killed 18 year-old Noa Orbach, a high school senior on her way home from class. In total, 44 people were wounded there and in another suicide attack in Jerusalem.

Travel out of the country for the Passover holiday is way up, with 250,000 Israelis booked on outgoing flights.  Psychologists announced a new study, showing a more than two-fold increase in the number of Israelis who describe themselves as suffering from mental distress.  If it's not the "situation" (euphemism for the current round of fighting with the Palestinians), then it's the economy.  Either way, it's hard to feel the personal security promised by this government.

1967 or 1948?

Despair has come to characterize Israeli attitudes about the ongoing struggle with the Palestinians.  Once seemingly intractable issues, such as borders, now seem less problematic; while other, even thornier issues, such as the right of return, have taken their place.  Everyone is asking, is this 1967 or 1948?  Is there someone with whom to negotiate?  And now the one-two punch of this past week: a lethal Hizbollah infiltration that left six dead on a northern border road, followed by the high-level warning of terror attacks in Nahariya that caused the mayor to close the coastal town's schools.

And if that isn't enough to worry about, the intensified American campaign for an attack on Iraq leaves the average Israeli wondering if this time around, the gas masks in the closet will really protect the family from biological and chemical missiles Saddam is bound to hurl in our direction.  But, like in a good old-fashioned Western, Vice President Cheney and US envoy Anthony Zinni have turned up, and in the nick of time. A lot of people in this country are placing what little hope they have left into this last-ditch effort.

Hope from America?

Zinni had been working overtime to win a mutually declared cease-fire, even before the Vice President arrived.  American persuasion on both sides to take this necessary first step on the road to Tenet was met with hardened demands by the Palestinians that Israel completely pull out from Area "A" and stop bombing Palestinian towns and prisons, before they would agree to assert control over the terrorists.

Four days into Zinni's visit, a change in the atmosphere could be felt.  Israel eased Palestinian travel restrictions, opened two border crossings, and allowed 3,000 Palestinians to return to work in the Erez Industrial Zone.  Shooting incidents in the territories fell.  And, following talks held late Sunday night by Israeli and Palestinian field commanders, the joint Israeli-Palestinian Supreme Security Committee met in Jerusalem Monday morning at Zinni's invitation.

With both sides claiming muted victory, "the Palestinians for proving Arafat's relevance and getting the Israelis back on a political track, and the Israelis for completing the main portions of its military offensive and proving that no center of terror is immune," Zinni managed to clear the air somewhat in time for Cheney's arrival.  In addition to the renewal of security coordination, Zinni won a softened stance from the Palestinians in accepting an Israeli promise to leave Area "A."  From the Israelis he drew a commitment to withdraw from Bethlehem and the Gaza Strip on Monday night; by Tuesday morning, the IDF was out.

Cheney steps in

Cheney got right down to business.  He applied measured pressure to both sides, albeit to Arafat only via Zinni.  Obtaining an Israeli announcement that Arafat was free to travel to Beirut as long as he implements Tenet, Cheney offered the Palestinian leader a carrot of his own: Make 100% effort, uphold the cease-fire and implement Tenet, and he would return to the region to meet with Arafat personally.

Chalking this up as a good visit by the Vice President, Sharon's office claimed that coordination on Iraq was achieved.  Regarding the Palestinian conflict, the Israelis are ready to "go the extra mile" despite all of their earlier reservations.  And, according to a source in the Prime Minister's office, they will comply with Tenet, thus putting the resumption of a political process on the horizon.

Inspired as this high level choreography to get all parties back on track was, the real test is yet to come.  The US will still have to prove the seriousness of its new engagement policy, while demonstrating full Presidential backing for Zinni.  Sharon, for his part, may be counting on Arafat being unable to control the violence.  After giving Arafat a green light to go to Beirut, Sharon will be closely watching his behavior at the Arab Summit.  Should Arafat choose to use this as a platform for incitement, or should terror attacks occur in his absence, Sharon has already made it perfectly clear that he may not allow him back.