What's Behind the Israel-Turkey Rift?

On December 22, 2008, outgoing Prime Minister Ehud Olmert travelled to Turkey to meet with Prime Minister Tayyep Erdogan to discuss efforts to launch direct Israel-Syria peace talks. Days earlier, Olmert had expressed optimism that talks could resume with Turkey’s mediation, and there were reports that Syria had produced a document outlining its terms for direct negotiations.

“On that night, we were very close to reaching an agreement between the two parties (to begin direct talks). It was agreed they were going to talk until the end of the week to come to a (positive) outcome,” Erdogan later told the Washington Post in a January 31 interview.  “Olmert's last sentence (as he left) was, ‘As soon as I get back I will consult with my colleagues and get back to you.’ As I waited for his response . . . on December 27, bombs started falling on Gaza.”

Israel-Turkey relations have been deeply strained ever since.

During the Gaza war, Erdogan was a fierce critic of the operation claiming it amounted to “crimes against humanity.”  In a high-profile spat, he boisterously walked out of a public debate with Shimon Peres at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland after telling Peres “when it comes to killing, you know well how to kill.”  After the walkout, Erdogan was hailed for the row and greeted by thousands of supporters at the airport upon his return to Turkey.  Meanwhile, public protests against the Gaza campaign throughout Turkey disturbed many for their anti-Semitic tones.  Later, in September, Turkey’s foreign minister canceled a planned visit, claiming it was because he would not be allowed to travel to Gaza. And at the United Nations Erdogan was the only world leader to mention Gaza in his remarks to the General Assembly.

According to Time magazine, Israeli tourism to Turkey is down 47 percent since January when compared to this time last year.

But relations might have reached their lowest point earlier this week when Turkey abruptly withdrew Israel’s participation in a months-planned NATO aerial exercise.  The drill was postponed indefinitely after at least two nations – the United States and Italy – refused to take part without Israel.  

Asked about the postponement, U.S. State Department spokesman P.J. Crowley criticized Turkey, saying “we think it's inappropriate for any nation to be removed from an exercise like this at the last minute."

Explaining that Turkey’s move was a result of tensions since the Gaza campaign Erdogan told Al Arabiya television that "There are diplomatic sensitivities in the region which we had to take into consideration... and we took into consideration the conscience of our people ... because our people did not want Israel's participation.”

Israel’s ouster from the exercise seemingly represents a new level of tension between the once seemingly close allies.  Despite strained relations with Turkey’s civilian government, Israel had continued to enjoy close relations with Turkey’s military establishment, including arms sales, use of air space for military exercises, and shared intelligence.

Matters were made even worse just days after the NATO exercise snub.  Following a day of meetings and ceremonies, Turkey and Syria agreed to remove visa restrictions on their shared border and pledged to build a “common future” earlier this week.  Syria announced it would soon conduct a second military exercise with Turkey (the first was held in April). Erdogan will visit Iran later this month.  Israelis were incensed by a Turkish television program depicting Israeli soldiers as brutal war criminals and Israel’s labor unions – whose travel deals and encouragement account for 50 percent of Israeli tourism to Turkey – announced a tourism boycott.

But the deterioration in Israel-Turkey relations is not entirely about Gaza.  Analysts and former officials have pointed to Turkey’s stalled efforts to join the European Union as partly responsible for its recent re-alignments and bravado.  Talks to enter the EU have been delayed for years amidst opposition from countries like Germany and France.  Turkey’s strengthened alliance with Syria and Iran – coupled with its diminished EU prospects – may indicate that its increasingly critical role in the region is allowing it greater flexibility.

"Today there is a new foreign policy (in Turkey) that doesn't rely only on the West. They see themselves as a player in many regional circles," Alon Liel, the former Director-General of Israel’s Foreign Ministry recently told the Associated Press. "All this assertiveness in the region gives Turkey a self-confidence that allows it to be tougher to us.”

In today’s Yedioth Ahronoth, Alex Fishman writes that Israel-Turkey relations have been slowly deteriorating for years, noting that by 2002 Israel’s air force “had already stopped deploying operational squadrons on Turkish soil and training regularly in its skies.”

Fishman also points out Turkey’s recent fury over delays in the delivery of 10 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) that Turkey purchased for over $180 million from Israeli Aerospace Industries (IAI) and Elbit Systems, Ltd.  Israel says the delay was caused by difficulties in fitting Turkish-made electro-optical payloads (Aselfir300T) with the Israeli UAVs. Fishman writes:  “What started as an ordinary business dispute between two companies was fueled by political forces with vested interests, and the affair became a diplomatic clash.”

Nachum Barnea, also writing in today’s Yedioth Ahronoth, says that “Israel expects the American Administration to intervene and restrain the Erdogan government. Israel is paying a heavy price for processes it has no connection to: The European Union, acting on French pressure, rejected Turkey’s requests to integrate into the EU; meanwhile, the US Administration showed weakness; under such circumstances, Turkey chose to move closer to Syria and Iran.”

“The popularity of the Islamic movement is declining in all regional countries, with the exception of Turkey. What’s happening in Turkey holds grave implications for Israel, and not only for her,” Barnea concludes.

Still, some are cautioning against panic.

The Jerusalem Post reported earlier this week that “Israel has received messages from Turkey in recent days urging it not to blow the matter (of the NATO exercise) out of proportion, to "let the wave pass" and not cause "collateral" damage to the multifaceted Israeli-Turkish relationship.”

Defense Minister Ehud Barak recently told reporters that "Relations between Israel and Turkey are strategic and decades-old. Despite the ups and downs, Turkey continues to be a key player in our region. We shouldn't be drawn into frenzied statements about it."

Downplaying concerns in response to questions about the controversial Turkish television program, Turkey’s Deputy Prime Minister Bulent Arinc told reporters Israel-Turkey relations "have always been strong and we have total belief that these relations will always be strong."

In fact, amidst the turmoil in relations, Turkey announced that it captured 32 members of an Al-Qaeda cell that was planning to attack Israeli, American and NATO targets.

Zvi Bar-El concludes in Haaretz that “Turkey continues and will continue to have normal ties with Israel because such a relationship is part of Turkey's strategy, but today it finds itself in a different international status, of the sort that allows it to also take swipes at Israel.”

The question now is whether there are steps that can be taken – and soon – that will stem and even reverse the deterioration between the two countries, or whether Turkey is indeed engaged in a major realignment.  It is imperative that Israel, the United States, and the E.U. address the growing Turkish moves.  One thing is clear: Turkey is a critical country in the region; its Islamic-dominated government could serve as a model that such a state can cooperate closely with the West, including Israel.