The Axiom

Amidst the endless speculation and hand-wringing about this month's meeting between President Barack Obama and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, there's one simple truth about the relationship that receives far less attention: positive relations with Washington are vital for any Israeli leader.

There is no incentive in Israeli politics to foster or sustain disagreements with Washington. Quite the opposite; Israeli leaders will go to great lengths to ensure smooth and tranquil ties. If not, they know the Israeli electorate will punish those responsible for tension with Washington. This truism provides a powerful context for U.S. involvement in Arab-Israeli peacemaking.

It was Netanyahu's own experience as prime minister in the 1990s that provides the most recent evidence of this phenomenon. The Shamir experience in the early 1990s is probably the strongest example.

What impact does the axiom have on prospects for peace? Although no silver bullet, it does suggest we have far more influence than generally understood -- influence President George W. Bush failed to tap. In contrast, President Obama and his Administration may already be leveraging this dynamic in subtle, yet unmistakable ways.

Netanyahu's May 4 speech to AIPAC--where he broadened his approach vis-à-vis the Palestinians--may have been less about peace with Palestinians, and more about ensuring smooth relations with Washington. Intent matters less than consequence.

Vice President Biden's speech at AIPAC the following day was clear and stark about U.S. expectations--he was warm and polite, but also direct in terms of what Netanyahu needs to do.

Properly (and positively) exploited, the axiom is one of they keys to success in the quest for peace in the Middle East--and kudos to the Obama Administration for taking note.