Ayalon on speech: The new "axis of pragmatic forces"

The speech by President Barack Obama in Cairo this afternoon was followed closely in Israel with all stations giving live coverage and commentary. A special note was made of the audience makeup at Cairo University that the Americans pushed for, which included both members of the Muslim Brotherhood and the Israeli Ambassador to Egypt. There was also a major push by the State Department through its embassies to make this speech as accessible as possible across the region from online streaming at Internet cafes to providing speech highlights via text message in Hebrew, Arabic, or English. From Jerusalem it seemed perfectly clear that the President wanted nothing to get in the way of speaking directly to the people and not via their leaders. Immediately following the speech, The Pulse spoke to Major gen. (Res.) Ami Ayalon for his quick reaction.

Pulse: What is your first impression of President Obama's speech in Cairo today?

Ayalon: The speech was one of atmospherics, there were no surprises in his message, there was nothing new.  The real importance was the place in which he gave the speech and the language that he used. No American president has given such a speech in the language of new diplomacy.

Pulse: What do you mean by new diplomacy?

Ayalon: We are witnessing the beginning of new American diplomacy in the Middle East whereby it will no longer appear to be very, very pro-Israel, but, as was obvious in the speech, it will be more balanced. Israel has to now understand that this president really believes that there is a common denominator of moderate Arabs, Americans and Israelis. It is a new phenomenon in Middle East diplomacy because we have long believed that the US and Israel represented one side of the conflict and the Arab world and Muslims the other side. But unlike previous administrations where the world was divided by an axis of evil, particularly that of President Bush, Mr. Obama divides the world by an axis of pragmatic forces.

Pulse: What is the axis of pragmatists?

Ayalon: It is Obama's strategy to contend with the two major threats in the Middle East: fundamentalists and nuclear weapons. A necessary condition is to empower the axis of pragmatists based on Saudi Arabia as the religious focal point and Egypt as the political focal point of the region.  This is the background to his speech.

Pulse: Where is Israel in the new strategy?

Ayalon: We must understand that if this is the American strategy then we are headed for a conflict with Israel. If we look only at the issue of Iran where both Israel and the US see it as a major threat, there is a huge difference in how each thinks it should be handled. Obama sees a scenario that in order to face Iran we must create the pragmatic axis and must show progress on the Israel-Palestinian conflict; this is his starting point, this is an opportunity to ignite change. But Netanyahu sees Iran as only a problem and will not want to move forward on the Palestinian track in the way that the American Administration expects him to. This is why the settlements have become such an issue.

Pulse: Will Netanyahu become more cooperative?

Ayalon: Netanyahu has a very big problem.  He understands he is on a collision course with the president, and yet he has a coalition that will not give him the flexibility he needs to even change the language he is using to be more in line with the American government; to be more in line with the very clear message of new diplomacy that Obama gave in today's speech. The question as to whether Netanyahu will be able to create the necessary flexibility all depends on his personal leadership ability.

Pulse: Are we talking about his ability to state acceptance of the two-state solution?

Ayalon: I personally believe that the two-state solution is the only solution and the Prime Minister is not ready to accept it.  It is a paradox because depending on how the question is asked, anywhere between 65% - 85% of Israelis do accept the idea of two states.  Netanyahu's government is not representative of the nation in this regard. Even in Netanyahu's own coalition Barak and Lieberman accept the notion of two states. I believe that two-states is a necessary condition for Israel to remain as both a Jewish and democratic state. If there is no agreement on two-states, Israel will no longer be a democracy or a Jewish state.

Pulse: So this Israeli government is in a tough spot?

Ayalon:  Yes, Obama made it very clear that to not support two-states is against the interest of the Americans.  Obama views the situation as I view the situation, but not as Netanyahu views it. So the president was trying to by-pass the prime minister and speak directly to the Israeli people.   The problem is that not many Israelis will have listened to the speech in its entirety.  Most will learn about it form the media, from television or radio commentators.  It will take a few days to really gauge the Israeli reaction.

Pulse: How do we move beyond this point of potential collision and make progress on these critical issues?

Ayalon:  In a few weeks Israelis will see many in the security community, and I among them, who will come to our fellow Israelis and say, "Don't listen to Obama and support the two-state solution because it is in America's interest. Rather, we call on you to support the two-state solution because it is in Israel's interest."  Israel must implement the two-state solution in order to uphold our security and to maintain Israel as a Jewish democracy.   The two-state solution is a necessary condition of our security; it is more valuable than the military aid we get from the American government.  This is the time for a nonpartisan movement to step forward and tell the Israeli people what must be said: only a two-state solution will bring us the security we need to guarantee our future as both Jewish and democratic.

Receiving the rank of admiral, Ami Ayalon served as commander of the Israel Navy from 1992-1996. In 1969, he was decorated with the Medal of Valor, Israel's highest award. From 1996-2000 Ayalon served as head of the Shin Bet, Israel's Secret Service. A Member of Knesset since April 2006, he served as a member of the Knesset Foreign Affairs & Defense, Ethics, State Control, Labor, Welfare, & Health, and Foreign Workers committees. Ami Ayalon served as Minister without Portfolio from September 2007 until March 2009.  Ayalon is married and the father of three. He received a B.A. in Economics and Political Science from Bar Ilan University in 1980 and an M.A. in Public Administration from Harvard University in 1992.