Can We Work With Bibi?

The Israeli election represents a further shift to the right by Israelis who have been frustrated by the failure of the Olmert government to make any headway toward peace, by the government’s inability to undermine or eliminate Hamas and by the continued capacity of Palestinians to send rockets into Israeli towns.  While it may be premature to anoint Bibi Netanyahu as Israel’s next Prime Minister, the odds against Tzipi Livni are very long indeed.  So for the purposes of discussion, let’s assume that Bibi will be the next Prime Minister and that the composition of his coalition will be made up of individuals who are to the right of Israeli politics.  This does not preclude a broad coalition with Kadima, keeping in mind that Kadima was born out of Likud.

There are some who assume that a right wing government led by Netanyahu would put an end to the two state solution and terminate negotiations with the Palestinians. That has been one impression that has been created during the recent election campaign.  The assumption is also around that as Prime Minister, Netanyahu’s administration would seek a military solution to the Hamas problem.  And finally, it was assumed that he would further encroach on the West Bank through thickening existing settlements, legalizing the illegal settlements and building new settlements. It may be that all of these assumptions will come true.  But perhaps not.

The Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu who I worked with while I was our Ambassador to Israel, was certainly conservative in his viewpoint, and he was tough when it came to military action.  But, at the same time, he was pragmatic when it came to the interests of Israel and to his own political interests and that of his party.  This is the Bibi who accepted the Hebron agreement and also signed off on the Wye agreement.  He was the first member of Likud who ever agreed to turn over any portion of the West Bank to Palestinian authority, to the horror of many of his supporters. Despite the feelings of some in the US that Bibi reneged on his promises at Wye, the problem was not so much Bibi as it was Arik Sharon who was doing his best to undercut Wye and Bibi.  And, of course, Arafat was hardly religious in carrying through with his promises at Wye. While Bibi allowed the thickening existing settlements, he did not open the floodgates for new settlements.

This is the same Bibi who recently refused to sign a loyalty oath that ruled out a Palestinian State. The oath was handed out to all candidates to the right for signature before the election. Although he has said that he would oppose a state under current conditions that is not so hard to understand given the existing divisions over Israel’s existence in the Palestinian community. Netanyahu has ruled out further unilateral withdrawals, which is also understandable given the experience Israel has had with Gaza.

With Israel’s best interests in mind, Netanyahu has to consider the impact of his policies on his relationship with the new American administration and President.  As a pragmatist, Bibi has no need to rule out negotiations with the Palestinians or a two state solution.  So long as the Palestinians are divided politically, no two state solution is possible – and that will not be Israel’s or Bibi’s fault.  On the other hand, it is in Bibi’s interest to continue discussions with the Palestinian President if that is what the American’s and what Abu Mazen want. And certainly there is room for some accommodation, particularly in the area of the West Bank’s economic well being to make negotiations meaningful.

Bibi has experience with an American President, Bill Clinton, who wrote him off as the Wye agreement collapsed. And the fact that Bibi was perceived to have mismanaged the American relationship, may well have been a factor in his electoral defeat by Ehud Barak.  Netanyahu will want the relationship with Obama to prosper. This will be particularly true as we move ever closer to an Iranian nuclear weapons capability.  This is not a problem that Israel can solve alone.

On the question of military action against Hamas, Bibi has considerable experience with terrorism and terrorist organizations.  And he is aware of the consequences in terms of casualties that could be associated with a ground attack on Palestinian camps in Gaza. He must also be aware that the recent Israeli campaign against Hamas, if anything, increased its standing among Palestinians.  And Netanyahu has to take his relationships with Jordan and Egypt into account. I don’t recall Bibi ever having been headstrong or irrational when it came to balancing out Israel’s interests.

The greatest mistake our Administration could make would be to pigeon-hole Bibi Netanyahu in a conservative settler straight-jacket and assume that we cannot work together.  We worked with him before with some success and we can do so again if that is the direction that Israeli politics take.   
Amb. (ret.) Edward S. Walker, Jr.