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David Makovsky: The Rockets Brought in the Right

Senior Policy Associate, Israel Policy Forum
Posted February 11, 2009 - 1:49pm
If you don't make progress with the moderates, the hardliners will discredit them. David Makosvky applied this maxim, which has been frequently applied to Palestinian politics, to Israel's election.
Speaking alongside Michael Oren at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy today, he said that the vote for the right was a backlash against rocket fire from Gaza.
Just look at the percentage of votes for right-wing parties in three Israeli cities that have been hit with rocket fire, he said. Beer Sheva-70%, Askelon-75% Sderot-80%
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Comments
Makosvky argument unconvincing
David Makosvky suggests that those cities that experienced rocket fire voted right-wing, and gives examples from Beer Sheva, Askelon, and Sderot. In fact, the right-wing got very high votes in many places that did not experience rocket fire. For example, the settlement cities of Ariel (85%) and Ma'aleh Adumim (83%), and conservative cities like Jerusalem (75%) and Tiberias (77%).
In fact, the only places that voted left-wing were progressive cities like Tel Aviv (35%), Haifa (46%), and Eilat (51%).
How Israelis Voted
A good point: several factors contributed to the right-wing's electoral victory, as David Makovsky also discussed. I took a look back to see how residents of Sderot voted in 2006 (rockets were being fired then), and the right-wing certainly received the majority of the vote, about 61%. But there was a difference—the Labor Party. In 2006, 22% of Sderot's residents voted for the Labor, and this time, only 5%.
The Labor Party's poor showing made an impact, as did other factors. Nonetheless, Gaza was in the forefront of Israeli minds, and particularly of Israelis in the south, when they voted yesterday.
It is an interesting exercise to gage how Israel's voting patterns have changed and why. For Hebrew readers, this Knesset site shows how Israeli's voted in 2006, city by city. For yesterday's election, see Ha'aretz.