Early Retirement for Egyptian President Mubarak?

Recently, news has begun to circulate that Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak will not complete his current presidential term. Media and Israeli intelligence officials have reported that although Mubarak is continuing to attend conferences and diplomatic visits, he appears worn-down and tired.  Upon his early retirement, Mubarak will face the decision of either passing his rule down to his generally disliked son Gamal or holding early elections.

Jacky Hugi in Ma'ariv reports:

According to the position of these officials [Israeli intelligence], Mubarak has been going through a difficult period personally, since the death of his 12-year old grandson two months ago. In their opinion, the death of the grandson Mohammed, which was apparently caused by a stroke, greatly weakened the 81-year old president. Such a trauma, they believe, may lower Mubarak's spirits and encourage him to retire early from political life.

These officials say further that Mubarak has recently looked "very weak, his speech is slow and his public appearances look forced. He is functioning, and he appears in public, and today he is scheduled to leave for a diplomatic visit to Italy, but his situation is worrying. He is not the same Mubarak as in the past.

"Hosni Mubarak has been in office for 28 years. He came to power in 1981, after the assassination of his predecessor Anwar Sadat. In September 2005 he was elected for a fifth term, which will end in about two years. "It is highly unlikely that he will reach the end of his term," say Israeli officials.

Top Israeli officials believe that Mubarak will prefer to supervise the transfer of power to his son Gamal during his lifetime, in order to raise the son's chances of taking power. There are pockets of resistance to Gamal in Cairo, mainly in the security establishment, since he lacks a military past, as opposed to the three presidents of Egypt that have occupied the post. According to a likely scenario, the president will announce his retirement and declare early elections. The officials refuse to commit to an estimated date for the retirement of the Egyptian president, but assess that "this will happen in the foreseeable future."

Peres and Mubarak held a one-on-one meeting, discussing the details of a possible final status arrangement between Israel and the Palestinians, including the borders of the Palestinian state, a land swap and settlement blocs that would remain under Israeli sovereignty even after the final status arrangement, as well as a series of gestures that the Arab states would make towards Israel in order to promote the regional peace initiative.

Mubarak said regarding Gilad Shalit: "The soldier is alive and well," and added, "I hope that in the coming period the matter will come to an end."