Hamas Rocket Test; Hezbollah Arms Shipment Seized

In a series of military related events in Gaza and the Mediterranean Sea, it is apparent that Hamas and Hezbollah are stockpiling and testing weapons systems. On Tuesday, Israel’s head of military intelligence, Gen. Amos Yadlin, revealed that Hamas, under the cover of stormy weather, recently tested a rocket capable of firing 37 miles. This test means that Hamas now has the means to be able to strike Tel-Aviv and its surroundings. Israel is unclear whether the rocket was manufactured in Gaza or shipped in and assembled there. In either case, the capability of reaching Tel-Aviv is a game changer in many ways. As Alex Fishman in Yedioth Ahronoth relates:

The Hamas leadership came to the conclusion that without rockets that were capable of threatening Tel Aviv, they did not have any real leverage over public opinion in Israel that would serve as a deterrent to the IDF and the Israeli government.

In the Mediterranean, the Israeli navy captured an Antiguan flagged freighter off the coast of Cyprus, carrying many tons and a wide range of weaponry. As Anshel Pfeffer in Ha’aretz reports:

Israeli commandos seized the ship before dawn on Wednesday and defense officials said it had been carrying missiles and rockets bound for Lebanon's Iranian-backed Hezbollah guerrillas, believed to have come from Iran.

[Israel Navy Chief Brig. General] Ben-Yehuda refused to divulge whether Israel had any prior intelligence regarding the ship's cargo, saying that "we have ongoing intelligence indicating that Iran is continuously supporting Hezbollah and other organizations with massive quantities of weapons." He said that no anti-aircraft or anti-tank missiles have been found aboard the ship.

After the initial search on board the ship, the navy towed the freighter to Israel, where it conducted a thorough inspection of the cargo, the IDF said.

In looking at these developments on the northern and southern fronts of Israel, Fishman finds a consensus brewing that December “is likely to be the date from which point and onwards the next clash is going to erupt.” He identifies three reasons behind this analysis:

First of all, towards the end of 2009 the negotiations between the world powers and Iran over the Iranian nuclear program are liable to reach an impasse. Under those circumstances the Iranians will have a keen interest in seeing clashes flare up here so as to divert attention away from itself.

Secondly, the assessment in Israel is that if Abu Mazen perseveres and decides to hold elections in the Palestinian Authority on January 24 without including Hamas, Hamas will try to derail those elections by means of a military confrontation.

Thirdly, continued political deadlock and difficulties in finalizing the prisoner exchange deal could lead to unrest that might spread not only in the West Bank but also in the Gaza Strip.

According to Fishman’s anaysis, it could very well be a ‘hot’ winter in the Middle East.