Interview - Brig Gen (Res) Brom: Overriding Obstacles to Peace

The Pulse interviewed Brig. Gen. (Res.) Shlomo Brom recently. He is former director of the Strategic Planning Division in the Planning Branch of the General Staff of the IDF.

Pulse: What do you think came out of the Obama-Abu Mazen meeting last week?

Brom: Judging from the media reports I see two main efforts on the part of President Obama.  First, he showed President Abu Mazen that he has serious intentions for supporting a real process of negotiations between the Israelis and Palestinians. But at the same time, Obama did not accept the assumption of Abu Mazen that the Palestinians can sit idle while Obama puts pressure on Netanyahu and ultimately brings about his downfall.  Obama applied pressure on Abu Mazen, as well, making it clear that he expects the Palestinians to renew negotiations with Israel without conditions, namely their insistence that Netanyahu accept the two-state solution and that settlement activity be stopped. Even though the US is pressing Israel hard on these two points, Obama does not want them to be used by the Palestinians as pre-conditions.

Pulse: Why the strong focus on the settlements and outposts now?

Brom: The main motivation for this level of attention and pressure by the Administration is because first they really believe that the settlements and settlement activity are obstacles to peace, and second because Obama wants to gain the trust of the Arab world. It is important that this message be understood before he gives his speech in Cairo.  He wants to project to the Arab and Muslim world that he is serious and that this is not only talk.

Pulse: Are there risks in this approach?

Brom: Absolutely, I see a serious risk that the outposts will become a scarecrow that allows Netanyahu to divert attention from the more important issue which is whether the Netanyahu government is willing to engage in a sustained process of negotiations that will lead to an agreement in a reasonable timeframe. By focusing so much on the question of settlements and outposts, Netanyahu can make small concessions, claim big steps forward, and manage to evade the real issues.

Pulse: Do the Palestinians accept the linkage to Iran and a regional package?

Brom: They do understand it but Abu Mazen would not like to have too strong a linkage; he does not want to yield to Israeli pressure that any progress on the Palestinian track should be conditioned on progress on the Iranian issue. I support the US dialogue with Iran but at the same time I see the probability that it will succeed as quite small: because the gap between the two sides is so large, and because the Iranians suffer from hubris and believe that they are on the winning side.  Concessions from the Iranians will be very difficult.

Pulse: Was the Abu Mazen visit viewed as successful on the Palestinian street?

Brom: It is difficult to measure the effect of such a meeting on the Palestinian street because Abu Mazen has a great deal of opposition including Hamas and powerful elements in Fatah, both seeking to overthrow him.  Their spin on Abu Mazen's visit to Washington is that he is serving the interests of Israel and the US.  His domestic political situation is not at all good. Fatah is completely fragmented and Abu Mazen has not succeeded in either reforming Fatah or convening the central committee where such issues would be decided.

Pulse: Yet the Israeli press report that Abu Mazen's level of confidence has risen since the visit?

Brom: Again, that is because Obama gave him confidence that he is serious about the process and the settlements.  That is the main question for Palestinians, and one that I also ask.  The fact that Obama's intentions are good, no one can doubt.  But the obstacles to peace are so enormous that one must question how serious Obama will be in overriding these obstacles. And one of the obstacles we are referring to is the weakness of Abu Mazen.  His tenuous political standing will not allow him to make concessions. So if he thinks that he can sit idly by and let Obama break Netanyahu, his position vis-à-vis Israel will toughen.  Obama gave him a clear message: the Palestinians must also do their part, this is not on Israel alone.

Pulse: Do you expect any breakthrough on the settlement issue as a result of Defense Minister Ehud Barak's visit to Washington this week?

Brom:  Judging from some assertions that Barak has made recently in the Israeli media I believe that he will make the argument similar to what I stated above: the settlements are important but it will be a mistake to let them become the main issue of this conflict.

Shlomo Brom, a senior research associate at the Institute for National Security Studies, joined the Jaffee Center in 1998 after a long career in the IDF. His most senior post in the IDF was director of the Strategic Planning Division in the Planning Branch of the General Staff. Brig. Gen. (ret.) Brom participated in peace negotiations with the Palestinians, Jordan, and Syria, and in Middle Eastern regional security talks during the 1990s. He continued to be involved in Track 2 dialogues on these subjects after his retirement from the IDF. In 2000 he was named deputy to the National Security Advisor, returning to JCSS at the end of his post. In 2005-2006 Brig. Gen. (ret.) Brom was a member of the Meridor committee established by the Minister of Defense to reexamine the security strategy and doctrine of the State of Israel. His primary areas of research are Israeli-Palestinian relations and national security doctrine. Brom authored "Israel and South Lebanon: In the Absence of a Peace Treaty with Syria", and edited "The Middle East Military Balance 1999-2000" and "The Middle East Military Balance 2001-2002". He is co-editor of "The Second Lebanon War: Strategic Dimensions".