Interview with Col. (res.) Dr. Ephraim Lavie: Fatah's success is dependent on "renewal... of the political process with Israel"

The Pulse recently interviewed Colonel (res.) Dr. Ephraim Lavie. He is Director of the Tami Steinmetz Center for Peace Research, Head of the Konrad Adenauer Program for Jewish-Arab Cooperation and a research fellow at the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies.

Pulse: In your opinion, what were the main accomplishments of the Fatah convention?

Lavie: Fatah's sixth general convention achieved significant goals in rebuilding the movement both from an organizational aspect as well as an ideological one. First of all, the internal elections for the Central Committee and the Revolutionary Council finally tipped the scales in the power struggle between the old and mid-generation of leaders. This struggle had weakened the movement during the last 15 years. The old guard, which came from Tunis, was removed, and the local mid-generation leadership managed to bolster their position within the leadership ranks.  Secondly, Fatah now has a pragmatic political platform, which can serve as a source of ideological authority for the movement. It is important to note that Fatah's political platform was last formulated at its fifth convention in 1989, in spite of many significant political developments that have occurred since then. The outcome of the struggle between the old timers and the transitional generation, in favor of the latter, has reinforced the historical process whereby Palestinian exiles are being displaced as a political force and the West Bank and Gaza Strip are becoming the center of gravity of the Palestinian existence.

Pulse: Has the Fatah succeeded in improving its image?

Lavie: To a certain extent, Fatah has improved its image, even though some of the new faces in the leadership are considered as corrupt as their predecessors. The important question is whether the Palestinian public will recognize its legitimacy. Fatah hopes that its efforts to rebuild the movement both organizationally and ideologically, as demonstrated in the sixth convention, will help gain back the trust of the people. Its main problem vis a vis Palestinian public opinion is that political success is dependent to a large extent on the renewal and progress of the political process with Israel. This sets it at a disadvantage in comparison to Hamas, which enjoys public support because of its policy and leadership; Hamas' popularity is not dependent on an agreement with Israel.

Pulse: Did Fatah manage to unite its ranks or decrease internal conflicts as a result of the convention?

Lavie: The convention was an opportunity for ideological revival in Fatah, for the rehabilitation of its institutions and for unification of its ranks. The elected leadership hopes that the end of the inter-generation struggle and the new national platform will bring about a unity in the ranks and restore Fatah as a national movement and as leaders of the Palestinian people. However, the middle-generation activists that were elected are not a unified group and lack a dominant leader. Jibril Rajoub, Mohammed Dahlan and Marwan Barghouti (who is imprisoned in Israel) and others will probably compete between themselves in an attempt to expand their authority over PA government offices, security forces and the PA financial assets and budgets. This rivalry will quickly lead to tension and internal conflict that will be a part of the war of inheritance for the top seat of Fatah and the PL0 in the post- Abu Mazen era.

Pulse: Did the convention increase the possibility of advancement in the peace process?

Lavie: It looks like it has, because the new leadership adopted an agenda to bring about the end of occupation and achieve national independence within the 1967 borders, in the framework of an agreement with Israel. Fatah differentiated itself from Hamas by declaring its commitment to the Road Map and the Arab Peace Initiative (that emphasizes the commitment of the Arab world to the two-state solution within 1967 borders). However, there are obstacles to renewing the political process. First of all, Israel and the Fatah leadership are setting almost impossible conditions for the renewal of negotiations. Israel is demanding that Fatah recognize the State of Israel as the Jewish homeland as an end to the conflict, while it also continues to expand settlements. Fatah, from its side, lacks the political ability to tone down its uncompromising stance on the core issues of the final status agreement. Therefore, even if the Palestinian exiles lost their power as a significant political force, and the center of gravity is now in the territories, it has not lost its moral position as the representative of the refugee problem and of the right of return. Secondly the Palestinian territorial and political divide, which widened since Hamas took control of Gaza in June 2007, has created two independent governments in the West Bank and Gaza, and therefore prevents Fatah from representing the population in the Gaza Strip.

Pulse: How will the convention influence the status of the Hamas leadership and its future activities?

Lavie: The Hamas leadership is preparing for a confrontation with the new Fatah leadership, and it is doing everything possible to prevent Fatah from regaining power in the Gaza Strip. Hamas seeks long-term stability and calm - even without an agreement with Israel - so it can further strengthen its rule and focus on reconstruction of the Gaza Strip. It anticipates that the PA security forces will step up its activities against the Hamas civil infrastructures in the West Bank, including charity organizations, mosques and activists, but it believes that it can continue to retain its authority and status in spite of the political boycott and the siege on the Gaza Strip. All this has not changed Hamas' ideological infrastructure and does not lessen its dominance. Hamas' leadership will continue to build itself militarily and fight for its place as a legitimate political player in the Palestinian arena. It will continue to seek recognition as a governing body that was elected through free democratic elections. Moreover, Hamas will also continue to use force and violence to neutralize any Fatah or Islamic extremist groups that attempt to challenge its rule in the Gaza Strip.