Israelis Abroad: Lieberman in Paris, Peres and Netanyahu in Washington

President Barack Obama met last night in the White House with Israeli President Shimon Peres, "who told him that he did not oppose the administration's intention to engage in dialogue with Tehran," Israel Radio News reports today:

President Peres said that if this approach should be successful, that would be the best thing. The US president said that commitment to Israel's security is at the top of the administration's priorities.

Obama added that he was certain that he would be able to work together with Prime Minister Netanyahu in a positive and practical way.

Regarding the Palestinian subject, President Peres said that Prime Minister Netanyahu had promised to honor all the commitments of previous governments, including the road map, which leads to a two-state solution. At a meeting between President Peres and Vice President Biden, the Americans made the demand to freeze construction in the settlements.

Netanyahu spoke to the AIPAC conference via teleconference. Tal Schneider reports in Ma'ariv:

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu used the platform that was provided for him at the AIPAC conference in order to present the beginning of his political plan. But the words "two states," which Washington is waiting to hear, remained outside the speech.

"Friends," Netanyahu said, "there is something significant that is happening today in the Middle East, and I can say that for the first time in my lifetime, I believe for the first time in a century, that Arabs and Jews see a common danger.. There is a great challenge afoot.

But that challenge also presents great opportunities. The common danger is echoed by Arab leaders throughout the Middle East; it is echoed by Israel repeatedly; it is echoed by Europeans, by many responsible governments around the world. And if I had to sum it up in one sentence, it is this: Iran must not be allowed to develop nuclear weapons."

Meanwhile, Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman continued his tour in Europe. Lieberman met yesterday in Rome with Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi. During their meeting, Lieberman gave him the message that Israel does not oppose the dialogue that Western countries, the United States first among them, are holding with Iran, but it is interested in setting a time limit for it.

At the end of his visit to Rome, the foreign minister went to France, where he met with French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner. At the end of the meeting, the French foreign minister issued a statement in which he called upon Lieberman to resume the peace process with the Palestinians. "Kouchner reiterated France's expectations," the French press said, "particularly those connected with the creation of a sustainable Palestinian state that will live in peace and security with Israel.

Israel Radio News reports on Lieberman's meeting with French Foreign Minister Bernard Koucnher:

France is pressing Israel to resume negotiations with the Palestinians in order to pave the way for the creation of a Palestinian state. French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner met last night in Paris with Foreign Minister Lieberman and demanded that Israel stop construction in the settlements completely and open the border crossings in the Gaza Strip in order to improve the economic situation there.

 

Ben Caspit analyzed Israel current relationship with the world in Ma'ariv:

At some point, Binyamin Netanyahu too will realize that this is not a random scattering of drops, this is rain.

When the vice president instructs the Israeli government to remove settlement outposts and to put a freeze on construction in the settlements, when he does so at a conference of AIPAC, the Israeli lobby in Washington, it is a sign that there is a problem somewhere.  Against this backdrop, Shimon Peres arrived just in time.  The problem is that Peres usually does and says whatever he wants.  That's how it is at his age.  And so Netanyahu still does not know whether Peres benefited him or harmed him yesterday in Washington.

The truth is that Bibi has a case.  It is the right of a newly elected prime minister in Israel to reassess a policy that has not particularly proven itself in the past 13 years.  It is his right to receive two months of grace, his right to be given credit, at least until it is shown that there is nothing backing him up.  But credit is now a dirty word in America. 

Netanyahu is being called upon to show results, here and now.  Against this backdrop, his task at the White House in two weeks appears almost impossible.  Before the trickle becomes a deluge.

This is what Netanyahu will present to Obama, more or less.  An unfinished plan, with a great deal of room for changes: Three negotiating tracks with the Palestinians, Bibi will say.  Security, economic and political.  In the security realm, Netanyahu will consent to a massive expansion of the Dayton plan.  Adding a significant number of trained battalions to the PA forces, in order to strengthen Abu Mazen's hold on Judea and Samaria and increase security.  At the same time, Netanyahu will consent to a continued transfer of security responsibility in Palestinian cities to Abu Mazen, following the Jenin model, which has garnered praise.  All this, along with the continued removal of roadblocks and additional steps for improving mobility and living conditions in the territories, is supposed to create a satisfactory security clause.  In the economic realm: Massive investment, with international assistance.  Joint free trade areas, removing barriers, joint projects, a great effort together with the Arab world, the US and the Europeans, to effect a real change in living conditions, in the economy, in employment, in the mood in the territories.

And what about negotiations?  Fine, thanks.  The renewal of political negotiations, subject to progress on the two other tracks.  Netanyahu will promise to remove the illegal settlement outposts.  He is already engaged in initial attempts to launch a dialogue with the settlers.  A freeze on settlements will be more difficult for him, and therefore he will try to draw a distinction between Jerusalem and the large cities (Ariel, Maale Adumim), and the isolated settlements.  There, he may agree to a freeze.  Against this backdrop, negotiating teams will be set up, and Israel and the Palestinians will try to advance towards a final status arrangement.  Netanyahu will emphasize: Real peace will not be possible without having the Palestinians recognize Israel as a Jewish state, but we are still not there.  It is doubtful whether we will reach this point.

Will this formula be sufficient for Netanyahu in Washington?  It is highly doubtful.  The Americans can tell when someone is trying to pull the wool over their eyes.  Netanyahu is thinking and trying to generate new ideas.  He is consulting with many people.  There is the Jordanian initiative, which was revealed about two years ago by Ma'ariv, according to which a confederation will be set up between Jordan and the Palestinian Authority, and the Hashemite Kingdom will effectively be responsible for the security issue.  King Abdullah sent covert envoys here in the past who tried to revive this formula.  Ideas for a regional peace with land swaps (Giora Eiland tried once to promote such a solution), in cooperation with Egypt and Jordan, are also on the table.

Think outside the box, Netanyahu tells himself and his aides, but the problem is that the more he tries, he finds that it is an iron box.  He is caught inside it, together with the Palestinians, and there is no way out.

There is also the Syrian track.  In very intimate discussions, Netanyahu's aides are trying to put together a formula that will make it possible to reach a deal with Syria.  Messages have already reached Damascus.  [Syrian Foreign Minister] Walid Muallem has heard them.  Once again, there is talk of a land swap (al-Hama for the Hermon and the shores of the Kinneret), leasing, various formulas that will enable Netanyahu to go to a northern initiative, complete the circle of peace, get the American pressure off his neck, and remove Syria from the circle of missiles, prior to a possible confrontation with Iran.

All these ideas are now boiling in Netanyahu's mind, all at once.  He has to produce something tempting from them, with which he will be able to go to Washington in two weeks, and also return home safely.  At this stage, the chances are not high.

Shimon Shiffer writes in Yediot Acharonoth:

Netanyahu will tell Obama: My government supports giving "self-government" to the Palestinians in Judea and Samaria.  The idea of two states for two peoples is not attainable in the foreseeable future.  We must work gradually towards building the infrastructure for a final status arrangement, not follow the plan of the Olmert-Livni government.

"Israel will act according to its own interests, and will not be intimidated," say senior political sources in Jerusalem.  "Extremist Islam, which is threatening countries in the Middle East and in other regions of the world, arose irrespective of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict."

From talks with sources close to the prime minister and ministers who have been privy to the outline that Netanyahu will present on his visit to the US, the following picture arises:

Israel, Netanyahu will tell Obama, is prepared to immediately renew negotiations with the Palestinian Authority, with the aim of reaching "self-government" for the Palestinians in Judea and Samaria.  The Netanyahu government is not willing, at present, to adopt the idea of two states for two peoples-among other reasons, because this approach has failed over the past 16 years, and because the Israeli side will insist that the Palestinian Authority recognize the principle of the State of Israel as the nation state of the Jewish people.

High-ranking political sources say further: There is no room to talk about two states, because three already exist on the ground-Israel, the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank and Hamastan in Gaza.

Netanyahu will explain in Washington: Israel has no desire to control the lives of the Palestinians, but before one talks about the solution of a Palestinian state, the PA must be compelled to recognize Israel as the Jewish nation state.

Netanyahu will tell top administration officials in Washington that the talks with the Palestinian will be based on three foundations: Political, economic and security.

Netanyahu will also voice consent to a dialogue on an agreement with all the countries of the region, "without preconditions."

Presumably, Netanyahu will commit himself to honor all the commitments made by his predecessors with regard to removing illegal settlement outposts.  But he will add that there should be a similar attitude towards illegal construction by the Palestinians.

As for the Iranian issue, Netanyahu will tell his interlocutors in the White House that the willingness to deal with the nuclear threat that Iran poses to the world should not be linked to the compromises that Israel is called upon to do with the Palestinians.  "This linkage is surreal," said senior political sources.

"The international reality will blow up in the faces of the policymakers in the Obama administration," say senior Israeli political sources, and add: "Look how the Obama administration is handling North Korea, which is thumbing its nose at the new approach that the Americans tried to demonstrate.  The US administration is being revealed in its full helplessness versus North Korea, which is continuing its nuclear program.  This is liable to be the case with Iran too."

The prime minister will propose to Obama to limit the dialogue with Iran to a period of several months, after which economic and other sanctions would be activated against the regime in Tehran.

Senior political sources reveal that Israel has noted alarm among moderate Arab states, including the Gulf states, toward the attempt of the Obama administration to engage Iran in dialogue and accommodate it on a series of issues that may, in their opinion, endanger the moderate regimes in the region.  "State leaders in the region are turning to us to coordinate policy versus Iran, because they no longer depend on the Americans.  It has gone that far," says a senior source.

In anticipation of Netanyahu's meeting with Obama on May 18, Yossi Beilin wrote in Israel Hayom:

The lights in the Prime Minister's Office, I am told, have been burning for many nights.  Feverish preparations are being made for the meeting on May 18.  I can assess that the main effort is being invested in an attempt to prove to Obama that the Iranian threat is real and immediate, and that no other issue equals it in importance.  Netanyahu's statements will pay lip service to peace in the Middle East.  He knows that Obama will not be willing to hear the phrase "economic peace," and therefore he will explain that this is only a process that will accompany a diplomatic process, and not a substitute for one.  He will explain that Abu Mazen is too weak, that nothing can be done with Hamas, and that he is willing to make peace with Assad on condition that he will be willing to stop at the ridge line, and does not demand the entire Golan Heights.

Those who are preparing the meeting on the American side, both in the National Security Council and in the State Department, are now working on the topic of the settlements.  They want the president to present to the prime minister the severe facts on the continuation of settlement activity in the West Bank and Jerusalem, to speak with him firmly about the prohibition to build in E-1, and to tell him that Israel has not fulfilled any of its road map commitments, including the evacuation of unauthorized settlement outposts, with which even the right wing vowed to deal, because it does not want to undermine the rule of law.

Of course, Obama will speak about the peace process, and the chances of reaching an agreement that will be implemented in stages with Abu Mazen-with the aid of a multi-national force in the West Bank.  With Hamas in Gaza, there will only be a truce, and the safe passage route between Gaza and the West Bank will wait for better days.  He will also speak about the agreement with Syria and its importance in the context of the American pullout from Iraq.

But if this is all that happens in Washington between Netanyahu and Obama, it will be a missed opportunity for both of them.  If Netanyahu "succeeds" in getting through most of the conversation by conveying updated information about Iran, and if Obama "extracts" from the prime minister a commitment to fulfill Israel's part in the first section of the road map, and if the two say in the press conference that they believe in peace in the Middle East and will strive towards it to the best of their ability-it will be as if the meeting had not been held.

Yes, even if they decide to call each other by their first names.

The opportunity of May 18 will not be missed if the two leaders sum it up in a detailed, practical decision to return to the negotiating table according to the 1991 Madrid principles.  This refers to negotiations in parallel with Syria, Lebanon and the PLO, and an American assurance to help in implementing the Arab initiative, financing the agreements and commanding the multi-national force in the West Bank.  This will be the most important contribution to dealing with the Iranian issue and to Israel's security in the coming generations.

Obama wants this, but will not impose it on Israel.  Has Bibi reached this point?