The Morning Beat - February 18

An Israel-Hamas Cease-fire?

Israel's security cabinet decided today to not finalize a cease-fire with Hamas, until a deal was made a release Gilad Shalit.

"We will negotiate his release first, and only then will we be willing to discuss things like the Gaza crossings and rebuilding the [Gaza] Strip," Olmert said Tuesday during a tour of Jerusalem.

Hamas responded that it rejects Israel's condition.

Maj.Gen.Amos Gilad, who has been heading the cease-fire negotiations, through Egypt, is infuriated that a deal has not been approved. He was quoted by Ben Caspit in Ma'ariv,

If they [the political establishment] decide tomorrow to release the prisoners, that very same day we'll get Gilad.

Because if we take all the prisoners to the Erez crossing and announce that over a megaphone, we'll get Gilad that same moment. But without that, there isn't going to be Gilad.

We've succeeded in creating linkage between the crossings and Gilad.

But aside from that, we simply haven't done anything. Until now the prime minister hasn't involved himself at all.

Suddenly, the order of things has been changed. Suddenly, first we have to get Gilad. I don't understand that. Where does that lead, to insult the Egyptians? To make them want to drop the whole thing? What do we stand to gain from that?

Who is going to deliver the goods except for the Egyptians?

On Egypt's mediation Gilad said:

After all, it's damaging to national security. The Egyptians have shown extraordinary courage. They've given us maneuvering room, they're trying to mediate, they're investing efforts, they're showing goodwill of a kind they've never shown before. So it's true that on the ground that comes out as 60% and not 100%, like Amos Yadlin would like. So what are we going to do?  Mubarak has been fair and courageous-the Rafah border crossing is closed, Hamas is under siege.

What are we thinking? That they work for us? That they're a subordinate unit of ours? We're talking about a country with 85 million citizens, a country that almost destroyed us in 1948 and dealt us a blow in 1973.

Israel-Syria relations

In an interview with the UK Guardian yesterday, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad promoted Syria's centrality to Middle East peacemaking,

If you want comprehensive peace in the Middle East you can't achieve it without Syria. We are a player in the region. If you want to talk about peace you cannot advance without us.

Assad also expressed his hope for a new relationship with the United States,

We have the impression that this administration will be different . . . and we have seen the signals. But we have to wait for the reality and the results.

Israel's Next Government

Israeli President Shimon Peres has begun consultations to decide on who will be tasked with forming the next government, Benyamin Netanyahu and Tzipi Livni. On everyone's mind is what sort of government that leader will establish, one composed only of right-wing and ultra-wing parties or one that includes two major parties-Likud and Kadima.

According to former U.S. ambassador to Israel Daniel Kurtzer, a government led by Benjamin Netanyahu that also included Yisrael Beiteinu chairman Avigdor Lieberman would be a "bad combination for American interests."

He said during an appearance at Georgetown University,

There will be an image problem for an American administration to support a government that includes a politician who was defined as racist. But the Israeli system doesn't respond well to perceptions of outside parties.

It would be much more difficult for the right-wing even with determined American leadership to advance the peace process. Not impossible, but very difficult.

U.S. Diplomacy, Muslims, and the Middle East

Secretary of State Hilary Rodham Clinton said in Tokyo yesterday that the Obama administration will make "a concerted effort" to restore the image of the United States in the Islamic world, and will seek to "enlist the help of Muslims around the world against the extremists."

Former President Bill Clinton also spoke on Middle East issues yesterday, telling CNN's Larry King that,

The Israelis have to decide whether they want to share the future in a positive way with a constructive Palestinian state, so that they have a Jewish democracy, which is what Israel was set up to be.

And if they don't, then they'll have to disenfranchise the Palestinians living outside of old Israel, pre-'67 Israel, and they won't be a democracy anymore. Or they will let everybody vote and they won't be a Jewish state anymore. That hasn't changed.

He went on to discuss the Arab Peace Initiative:

The king of Saudi Arabia and I think more than 20 other Muslim countries in the whole Arab Middle East, with the exception of Syria, has been out there strongly supporting a peace process and basically saying, if you will give the Palestinians a state in the West Bank and Gaza, with appropriate compromises - essentially, what I proposed in 2000 that Israel accepted then - we will strongly support it. We will urge the Palestinians to sign it. We will help them succeed economically. We will relocate [the refugees].I think there's hope, and I don't see what the alternative is.