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The Morning Beat - February 20
Israels' Next Prime Minister, Again: Benyamin Netanyahu
Israeli President Shimon Peres tasked the Likud's Benyamin Netanyahu with forming Israel's next government, and called for Kadima's Tzipi Livni to join his coalition. A broad government with Livni is Netanyahu's preference as well, and, according to reports today, he is prepared to make her his number two, deputy prime minister, and also give Kadima the Defense portfolio (by making Shaul Mofaz Defense Minister, again). Getting Livni on board is the key to achieving a broad government, but she is signaling that she would rather keep her party in the opposition.
Netanyahu's options are as follows, Ma'ariv reports,
A National-Unity Government
The Likud-27; Kadima-28; Yisrael Beiteinu-15; Jewish Home-3;
a total of 73 seats
A Right-Wing Government
The Likud-27; Yisrael Beiteinu-15; Shas-11; United Torah Judaism-5; Jewish Home-4; National Union-3;
a total of 65 seats
The Netanyahu Challenge
Netanyahu has been through the nightmare of leading a narrow right-wing government before, Shalom Yerushalmi wrote in Ma'ariv,
The narrow government he formed in 1996 fell apart in stages. Six months after the elections, Benny Begin left it following the Hebron agreement. A year and a half later, following the Wye River Memorandum, the extreme right wing factions toppled Netanyahu from the outside. Netanyahu swore that he would not make a narrow government again, and would never again be the prime minister of half the people. He promised himself not to suffer again the attacks of hatred against him and his wife by the left wing and the media, which would have brought down even Julius Caesar.
Middle Easterners are also watching Netanyahu closely. The optimists, George S. Hishmeh said in Gulf News, wonder if Netanyahu can,
pull a Richard Nixon out of his bag. After all, it was this former conservative American president who paved the way for establishing diplomatic relations with Communist China when he visited there in 1972.
After all, it was the Likud Party, led by the late Menachem Begin and now by Netanyahu, which had led the first Israeli government, in a precedent-setting gesture when it agreed to evacuate Jewish colonists from the Israeli-occupied Sinai Peninsula after signing a peace agreement with Egypt 30 years ago this month.
But the pessimists by far outnumber the optimists at this stage. Israel is struggling to form a new government after its indecisive election which empowered rightist groups but failed to give either political party a clear mandate for the next step in Arab-Israeli relations.
Israel and Hamas Cease-fire or Lead up to Round Two?
Ten rockets hit Israeli towns today. There were no injuries reported, but some are asking what was accomplished during the Gaza war.
Nahum Barnea wrote in Yediot Acharonoth,
It appears, after all, after the interviews, the briefings and the special broadcasts, after the great praise of the military affairs correspondents and the wars over credit between Barak and Livni, that the IDF operation in Gaza was not such a great success, and perhaps it was not a success at all. The goal was to prevent arms smuggling, and the smuggling continues.
The goal was to stop the fire, but the fire continues-albeit, for the meantime, in small numbers and with negligible damage.
The goal was to impose an improved tahdia on Hamas, but the talks between Egypt and Hamas amount to the same tahdia, and some say, worse [than its predecessor]. The goal was to accelerate the negotiations on Gilad Shalit's return, but Hamas has not budged a millimeter.
Egypt and the Cease-fire
"Egypt is accusing Israel of sabotaging the talks with Hamas in Cairo," Jacky Hugi wrote in Ma'ariv.
the Egyptian Foreign Ministry's spokesman, said that the decision made in Jerusalem to link the opening of the border crossings in Gaza with the release of Gilad Shalit constituted a setback. "It certainly damages the opportunity to reach a truce that will prevent deaths, as Egypt hoped and as the entire world expects," he said.
In a meeting with reporters this week in Bahrain, President Hosni Mubarak said that Israel had reneged on several of the agreements that were made in the talks.
French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner is also unhappy with the state of the deal according to a Ha'aretz report.
Kouchner said that,
Paris does not agree with Israel's position that a deal must be set for the release of abducted Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit before Gaza Strip border crossings are opened.
Kouchner said that France support an Egyptian proposal for a truce between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip and does not believe it necessary to link Shalit with any cease-fire deal. The two issues should be worked out simultaneously, Kouchner said, but the one should not be conditioned on the other.
A new international engagement
Kouchner also confirmed that, "France has been indirectly negotiating with Hamas via mediation of Syria, Qatar and Norway."
Ha'aretz continued,
Qatari Prime Minister Hamad bin Jassem bin Jaber al-Thani told French President Nicholas Sarkozy that when the two leaders met in Paris two weeks ago that he would engage Hamas intensively to help release Shalit.
This step, according to the UK Independent, was inevitable. "Sooner or later it had to happen: someone had to start talking to Hamas."
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A Coalition for Change in Israel?
The only hope for continuing serious negotiations on an Israel-Palestinian settlement lies in a coalition of Likud and Kadema. If Netanyahu forms a goverment with the far right, negotiations are dead. If he joins with Kadema, and forms a Centrist government, there is hope.
My other main issue is how to convince U.S. and Israel/P.A. to set up a venue for permanent talks, rather than the on and off pattern of the last 30 years. If a site is found "off shore" (Italy, Greece?) where representatives of all interested governments and NGOs can meet to begin the long process of moving from "baby steps" to bigger steps, then real change is possible.
I would like to work with whomever wants to pursue this plan of findng and setting up a permanent venue for talks.
Palestine - Perpetual Pantomime Pursues Peace
Benjamin Netanyahu has finally been given the go-ahead by Israel’s President Shimon Peres to try and form Israel’s next Government. This heralds the next round in the farce that passes for “the peace process“ in the Middle East.
The solution to the problem - what to do with the 6% of Palestine that still belongs to no one - needs to take a new direction and Netanyahu intends to do just that.
Gone are most of the old cast - President George Bush, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Israaeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert. They will be replaced by rising new stars President Barack Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton who will be joined this time round by resurrected 90’s star Netanyahu and former bit player George Mitchell - both of whom have a chance to achieve real fame if they perform better than they did so long ago.
The PLO’s Mahmoud Abbas has just managed to hold on to his leading role but is being challenged by Hamas head Ismail Haniyeh - an enterprising upstart who has already assumed a lot of the lines once spoken exclusively by Abbas.
“Explosive and set to rocket to stardom” could be how his captive audience in Gaza might describe Haniyeh.
Haniyeh’s superstar aspirations have been dealt a blow as Paris, London and New York exclude him from centre stage . He had temporarily gone into hiding last month - to escape his Israeli critics. This followed his disastrous performance in Gaza resulting in his unpopularity increasing even further worldwide. Little has been heard from him since. But no doubt he is soon set to make a comeback. Old actors never die - they only put on different clothes and still act out the same roles.
Lurking in the wings are two understudies for the Arab lead roles - Egypt and Jordan. They could soon find themselves starring on the Gazan and the West Bank stages in a repeat of their unbroken record running performances between 1948-1967. They are presently reluctant to return to the stage so intensive negotiations to get them to sign on the bottom line will be required.
Every actor has his price and the bargaining will be hard. Holding on to power and survival in the global economic downturn are two fertile areas to be explored in concluding successful negotiations to get them back on stage again. The royal patronage afforded by Jordan’s King Abdullah could be just the catalyst to spark a real revival in a pantomime that has sadly lost the plot.
The latest attempt to revamp the tired old Roadmap script will prove to be a waste of time, energy and effort.
The Roadmap - a blockbuster written in 2003 in the best traditions of Hollywood and underwritten by America, Russia, the European Union and the United Nations - has turned out to be a damp squib despite billions of dollars being spent to help it - and its principal actors - earn a Nobel Peace Prize.
The Arabs wanted 100% of the happy ending and were not prepared to share it with the Jews.
Now that’s not really negotiating - most would call it insanity . But then again nothing has changed in Arab thinking for the last 90 years.
The Norwegian Nobel Committee was not sucked into awarding the much sought after Prize to Bush’s Roadmap script following the disastrous decision in 1994 to award it prematurely to Shimon Peres, Yitzchak, Rabin and Yasser Arafat for their starring performances in the Roadmap’s forerunner - Oslo.
Born to great acclaim in 1993 on the White House stage before a television audience of billions and a host of VIP’s sitting in the front stalls to witness the performance live - Oslo was to disappear some six years later in a welter of recriminations as the temperamental actors spat their dummies and stormed off the stage.
History has now repeated itself with the demise of the Roadmap. However this time the actors have quietly left the stage with no encores as the curtain descended on yet another failed attempt to create a box office success.
The Arab Peace Initiative - written in 2002 and now enthusiastically promoted by the Arab League and the Organization of the Islamic Conference - has been touted as the new script to get the show on the road again and the crowds through the turnstiles.
This was made very clear by PLO Secretary-General Yasser Abed Rabbo in a press release to Ma’an News Agency on 12 February when he announced:
“Our options are clear toward the coming Israeli Government. [The PLO] will not deal with any new Israeli Government if it does not respond to the Arab Peace Initiative and halt settlement expansion
US President Barack Obama, his Middle East Envoy, George Mitchell, and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton know full well the obstacles preventing accomplishing a just solution to the establishment of a Palestinian State.
These obstacles were not set up by the Palestinians and we will not accept an alternative economic solution to the political situation.
Anyone who thinks that we, the Palestinians and the Arabs, are out of options - is mistaken”
The Arab Peace Initiative was rejected by Israel five years ago precisely because it mandated Arab sovereign control in 100% of the West Bank and Gaza. It will be rejected again - for the same sand many other reasons - not only by Netanyahu but by any new Government eventually formed in Israel.
Until the Arabs agree to divide the West Bank with the Jews, ticket sales to future performances of this ongoing farce will continue to plummet.
President Obama might do well to head off this flop just waiting to happen by introducing a new song (with apologies to Noel Coward) into the next staged production of this long running fiasco:
“Don’t put your plan on the stage dear Yasser Rabbo
Don’t put your plan on the stage
Its a bit of an ugly duckling
You must honestly confess
And the width of the plan would surely defeat
Its chances of success”
If the PLO don’t want to sing this song then the understudies - Egypt and Jordan - might just find themselves centre stage in the glare of the spotlights much sooner than they think.