Natural growth or growth by immigration?

The U.S. demand to freeze settlement activity has sparked the traditional self-righteous Israeli response that cites "natural growth" as the rationale for continued settler expansion. In fact, however, a quick look at both the numbers of Israelis living over the Green Line and the number of settlements there readily reveals why the Americans don't actually believe us. And why they don't buy the feigned innocence displayed by the Israeli government, headed by Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak, each time the new Obama administration raises the issue.

Natural growth for the Jewish population is 1.6%, and the size of an average family in Israel is 3.1 persons. The numbers in the territories, on the other hand, paint a far different picture: All Israeli governments have established settlements in the West Bank. And during the first 15 years after the 1967 Six-Day War, Israeli policy also prioritized populating East Jerusalem with Jews. The result: Growth in the territories, both in the number of Jewish communities and the Jewish population, has been and continues to be far more than merely natural.

Witness the immigration trend: A third of the Israelis living in the West Bank and Gaza Strip settled there during the 25 years prior to the signing of the 1993 Oslo Accords. Still another third moved to the territories during the eight years of the Accords, and more Jewish Israelis moved there - another third - in the eight years following the breakdown of the Accords. In East Jerusalem, deliberate settlement, as opposed to natural growth, is clear: 55% of the Israelis who live there moved in before the Oslo Accords were signed. The rest moved there during the period of the Accords or after they were frozen.

The table below makes plain the fallacy of the Israeli argument to President Obama that the settlements must expand to accommodate a naturally growing population.

[1] In 2001, unauthorized outposts began to replace the establishment of official new settlements.

[2] In the summer of 2005, 21 settlements were evacuated from the Gaza Strip and the northern West Bank.

Sources: Central Bureau of Statistics; "The Jerusalem Monthly Statistical Report," The Jerusalem Institute