Netanyahu Stuck Between Backroom Deals

Israeli prime minister-designate, and Likud Party leader, Binyamin Netanyahu has been trying to cobble together a government for over a month. The most interest has revolved around how much power Netanyahu will give Avigdor Lieberman, the nationalist leader who proposes forcing Israel's Arab citizens to sign a loyalty oath or lose citizenship.

Netanyahu is still working on building a coalition, but his time is running out. He has until Tuesday to decide whether to ask President Shimon Peres for a two-week extension or to present his government and get to work. It seems increasingly likely that he will have little choice but to ask for an extension. So far, he has only concluded an agreement with Lieberman's Yisrael Beitenu Party.

The Yisrael Beitenu-Likud deal, whose key details were revealed by Ha'aretz on Tuesday, is a signed coalition agreement but it can still be amended. Netanyahu seems to be desperately looking for a way out of the right-wing coalition that he has been negotiating, and has spent the last days in secret negotiations to coax the centrist Kadima and Labor parties to join him. Labor leader Ehud Barak is ready to join him, but the members of his party may not be (they just found out about the secret talks themselves). Barak is trying to hold a special party hearing to vote on the government proposal, but it is being held up by his party's leadership.

Although Netanyahu has concluded an official agreement with Yisrael Beitenu and an unofficial deal with Labor, it is highly unlikely that he can make good on both-there are simply not enough government positions to go around. Netanyahu, in addition, must negotiate with four other parties, and satisfy the members of his own party who were offered jobs that have now been promised to others.
 
At this time, we don't know what kind of government will be created (for that we have to wait for a final coalition to materialize, which won't happen until next week at the earliest). We certainly don't know what kind of prime minister Netanyahu will be. But for the Israel watchers who are wondering how much Netanyahu is willing to give in order to lure Avigdor Lieberman-and his party's 15 seats-into a government, the answer comes in a signed 14-page document. An examination of that deal, which may or may not materialize, follows.
 
The Yisrael Beitenu-Likud Coalition Agreement (as reported by Barak Ravid, Mazal Mualem, and Or Kashti in Haaretz on March 17)

Which government ministries has Netanyahu offered Yisrael Beitenu?

According to the coalition agreement, Lieberman, the man who told Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak to "go to hell," will be Israel's next foreign minister. He will also be responsible for conducting a strategic dialogue with the United States, and for establishing and heading a strategic dialogue with Russia.

Yisrael Beitenu will receive four additional ministries: Tourism, Public Security, Infrastructure, and Immigrant Absorption.

Will Netanyahu accept Yisrael Beitenu's policy agenda on Israeli-Palestinians relations?

The Netanyahu-Lieberman deal establishes on one strategic goal for Israel's next government-"to topple Hamas." One clause promises that "the government will take decisive action against terror organizations and do all that is necessary to finish them off." The same clause also promises that no political negotiation with Hamas will be conducted.

Other than vowing to bring Hamas down, the deal did not commit to advance Yisrael Beitenu's policy agenda concerning Israeli-Palestinian relations. Specifically, Yisrael Beitenu's proposal for an Israeli-Palestinian land swap and population transfer was not mentioned.

Will Netanyahu adopt Yisrael Beitenu's "no loyalty-no citizenship" proposal?

No. Ha'aretz reported that Lieberman presented his "no loyalty-no citizenship" plan--a law that would revoke the citizenship rights of Israeli Arabs deemed disloyal-as a central demand. Although Netanyahu rejected the plan, he promised to revoke social services and pensions from anyone believed to be a "terror operative" or anyone convicted of espionage.

Will Yisrael Beitenu secularize the Israeli state?

Not yet. However, the deal does commit government resources to begin to change laws of marriage and conversion. A committee will be established to begin formulating a proposal within 60 days to allow non-Jews in Israel to marry in civil ceremonies. Considering that Israel is nearly 80 percent Jewish, this is a rather minor reform. But it could herald more reforms later.

The coalition agreement also commits the government to loosen the regulations on conversion to Judaism. Currently, only the chief rabbinate of Israel has the authority to decide who is rightfully a Jew and who can become one. The coalition agreement would allow the heads of local rabbinical authorities, Haifa's chief rabbi for example, to regulate the rules of conversion for their own cities and towns.
 
Of course, the Netanyahu-Lieberman agreement is still not a done deal. That is largely because Labor leader, Ehud Barak, is still eager to join the government.

 The Netanyahu-Barak Unofficial Agreement

Reports from Israel indicate that Netanyahu promised Barak that Labor would control five government ministries, a deal better than the one he offered Lieberman, at least as far as government jobs go.
 
Netanyahu offered Barak the chance to remain Israel's defense minister, a position second to being prime minister. His deputy, Matan Vilnai, would become deputy prime minister, Shalom Shimhon would keep his job as minister of agriculture and a place would be found for Binyamin Ben-Eliezer, as well as some other likely sweeteners.
 
"The dowry is already on the table," Sima Kadmon wrote in Yediot Acharonoth today.  But it is very likely not acceptable to most Laborites. In fact, writes Kadmon, "Barak's opponents are already collecting signatures to make the voting by secret ballot. . . . Along with his proposal, two more proposals will be submitted: one by the young guard that will seek to oust [Barak], and the other that will demand to set a date for a primary. Paradoxically, they say, if he wins, he will actually lose. If he succeeds in bringing the Labor Party into the government, we will make sure that that will be his burial place."

That is one obvious hitch in the Netanyahu-Barak plan, but there are others.

Perhaps Netanyhau can get out of some of the promises he made to the small right-wing parties, but not all of them. If he can get both Labor (13 seats) and Yisrael Beitenu (15 seats) to join the Likud's 27, Netanyahu will have 55 members in his coalition-not enough.

To get the minimum 61 coalition members he needs at least one other party. He has been in talks with Shas (11 seats) and could likely get them to join him, but not without concession. And even once he does, Netanyhau will have to face his own party leaders. His deal with Barak would take the defense ministry from his deputy Moshe Ya'alon. His deal with Lieberman would take the foreign ministry away from Likud leader (and now Nentanyahu rival) Silvan Shalom, who claims that the position is rightfully his. And what of all his other deputies who feel slighted? Can Netanyahu lead without his party's support? Can a triumvirate of strong personalities-Netanyahu, Barak, and Lieberman-govern Israel with many of their allies feeling slighted?

We'll know soon enough.