Palestinian Reconciliation - Can it Happen?

The international donors' conference pledged $ 4.8 billion yesterday for humanitarian relief and rebuilding efforts in Gaza, and support for Palestinian Authority programs in the West Bank. The United States offered $900 million. That money is critical, but it comes with a hitch. How do you get aid to the Palestinian people without strengthening Hamas, the group in control of Gaza?

The current U.S. plan is to give some of the aid to Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas to disperse-with the hope that it also serves to strengthen him-and some of it to aid organizations. According to Israeli analyst Israela Oron, however, even if aid circumvents Hamas, it will not be effectively distributed without Hamas' consent.  "You cannot build the infrastructure and you cannot build the businesses without Hamas. You cannot operate in Gaza without the agreement of Hamas," she said on an Israel Policy Forum conference call last week.

The key problem is that there are two main groups governing the Palestinians, Hamas in Gaza and the Fatah-aligned government in the West Bank, who have been warring for years. However, there is a possible solution. This week in Cairo, Palestinian factions have been negotiating an agreement on a single, united Palestinian government. Such a government could allow for aid to effectively reach Palestinians without also being used for weapons to be used against Israelis or Palestinians.

Why would Fatah-Hamas make a deal now?

Rebuilding Gaza

Palestinian reconciliation is the means to rebuilding Gaza, argued Elias Harfoush in Dar al Hayat yesterday:

"This reconciliation is in the interest of both Hamas and Fatah at this time.The Islamic movement [Hamas] is facing a difficult internal situation in Gaza, one related to the obstruction of the reconstruction process, due to the fact that its government is not widely recognized internationally on the part of the countries contributing to the reconstruction. . . . As for the Palestinian Authority, represented by President Mahmoud Abbas and the Fatah leadership, it considers that restoring national unity and resolving the conflict over . . . the role of the Palestinian Authority's apparatuses in Gaza, are all positive elements that would strengthen Abu Mazen's [Mahmoud Abbas'] position."

International Engagement

Since it took power by force in Gaza, Hamas has consistently refused the idea of a National Unity Government. According to an International Crisis Group report entitled, "Palestine Divided,"  Hamas sees reconciliation as a trap that would, at best, give it shared control over Gaza.

"With Gaza firmly in hand, Hamas's price for inclusion in the political system has risen. The Gaza model-withstanding the siege, maintaining core ideological principles and achieving a ceasefire with Israel -may not be all that Hamas desires, but it is as successful as it need be. Gazans are suffering from an acute economic and social crisis, but the Islamic movement is internally secure, new elites more dependent on the movement are emerging, and basic government functions appear sustainable."

Hamas will not give up its control of Gaza, The International Crisis Group argues, without believing that there is something in it for them.  One possible incentive would be "a clear signal from the U.S. and the European Union (EU) that, this time around, they would judge a Palestinian unity arrangement on its conduct rather than automatically torpedo it," the ICG report concluded.

That signal came in an editorial by Ban Ki-Moon in Gulf News. In order for a sustainable Israel-Hamas cease-fire and the opening of Gaza's borders, he wrote:

Requires the Palestinian people to be reunited under one government committed to the principles of the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO). I have stated that the United Nations will work with a united Palestinian government that brings Gaza and the West Bank under the authority of President Mahmoud Abbas. I urge all Palestinian parties, and all regional and international players, to support the process of Palestinian reconciliation.

Palestinian Public Support

"The split between the West Bank and Gaza is deeply unpopular among Palestinians," George Washington University Professor Nathan Brown said on a Churches for Middle East Peace conference call.  "Palestinians feel that they have very little going forward other than national unity. Both sides need to be at least pretending be in favor of unity. There is also the pressure from the Arab world that says that the division is no good for anybody- not for the Palestinian Authority, and not for Hamas."

Is self-preservation enough to get Fatah and Hamas to agree on a National Unity Government? Watch Cairo.