The Path Back To Square One

Benjamin "Bibi" Netanyahu's expected election victory in Israel has sent chills throughout the international community. At a time when Washington has embarked on a comprehensive Middle East approach with promises to find an Israeli-Palestinian peace, stabilize Afghanistan, withdraw from Iraq and pursue diplomacy with Iran and Syria, the election of an Israeli Prime Minister whose election promise in 1996 was to undo the Oslo process and who dismisses diplomacy with Iran and promises that Israel will take action if others won't, will make the Obama administration's already arduous task next to impossible.

The strength of a comprehensive approach is precisely that it isn't piecemeal. It recognizes the linkages between the many conflict areas in the region. Yet its weakness also lies in its comprehensiveness - all pieces need to move forward for an enduring solution to be found. Failure or paralysis in one area can jeopardize the entire endeavor. Consequently, it is not a difficult task to undermine.

Netanyahu will likely resist any significant shift on the Palestinian front. The settlements will grow rather than reduce and the occupation will linger on.

On Iran, Bibi will likely pressure the Obama administration not to give diplomacy the space it needs. Demanding unrealistic time limits on negotiations - giving the sanctions strategy three decades but diplomacy only a few weeks - and resisting any deviation from the unachievable zero-enrichment objective while threatening military action against Iran if Washington does not comply with Israeli red lines, may paralyze Obama on Iran - with devastating consequences for the US in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Failure to make progress on the Palestinian or Iran front may lead the Obama administration to focus on a Syrian deal instead. The argument reads that Israel is ready to make concessions to Syria in return for a break in the Syrian-Iranian axis, which will leave Iran weaker and more isolated. Consequently, the argument reads, this will give Israel greater leeway to accept compromises on the Palestinian front and Iran's weaker position will provide Washington with greater leverage that can result in a negotiation outcome that is more acceptable to Israel.

It all sounds great in theory. The problem is, however, that there is nothing neither new nor comprehensive about this approach. It's the same piecemeal, sequential approach that has failed so many times before and left Israel with neither peace nor security.

If prospects for a breakthrough on the Syrian emerge, Iran will likely retaliate by both seeking to undermine the Syrian track and by withdrawing much needed assistance in Afghanistan and Iraq, causing failure in all theaters precisely because success was only sought in one of them.

And with that, the unprecedented window of opportunity for peace that emerged with the election of Barack Obama will be closed. And we will all be back to square one.

Let's hope I'm wrong.

Trita Parsi is the author of Treacherous Alliance - The Secret Dealings of Israel, Iran and the US, a silver medal recipient of the Council on Foreign Relations' Arthur Ross Book Award.