Signs to Watch as the Israeli Election Results Unfold

Who wins and by how much? Kadima or Likud?  Most analysts believe that Kadima under Livni needs at least a 3 vote lead over Likud to have the right to form a government.  But could the Israeli public accept the idea of the leader with the second most votes coming in first?

Why pick the second choice? Because as important as the selection of leader is, the left v. right blocs are almost as significant; some think more.  Whichever bloc gets 61 or more seats will likely be able to name the Prime Minister.

Look for what percentage of Israeli Arabs are voting. Lieberman of Yisrael Beiteinu's rise has frightened the Arab community.  If they're voting in larger than anticipated numbers, even for their own parties, they'll help the overall calculations for the left bloc.

Look for the number of women voting. Polls say they're outraged by what they see as abusive attacks on Tzipi Livni.  The higher the percentage of female voters, the better for Livni.

Can anything save Labor? Does it come in fourth?  Is Barak finished?  Labor is likely to have its worst ever election.  If it doesn't beat out Lieberman, it's probably the end of Barak's political career, even though he could well become Defense Minister anyway on his own, especially if Bibi becomes Prime Minister.

Will Yisrael Beiteinu come in third as many expect? What is the appeal of Avigdor Lieberman-Arab trashing, defiance, seizing the mood of the country?  Watch the polls for answers.

How far is the spread between the 4 leading parties-Likud, Kadima, Yisrael Beiteinu, and Labor? That's the key to the next coalition and its longevity.  Which parties can rule without Lieberman?  Kadima and Labor are most likely to go without him.............if they can? The party numbers will help foretell that future.

Many Israelis want a Likud, Kadima, and Labor coalition- What are the chances after the vote?

Who gets hurt by the bad weather expected? With at least 22% of the electorate still undecided, there could be some shocks.  Watch for unexpected minor or major party positive showings.  In the last two elections two parties, centrist Shinui and Pensioners, respectively, came from seemingly nowhere to make extremely good showings.

What ever happened to the orthodox? Does Shas decline?  Other religious parties?  Because of Lieberman?

What percentage of the non-Russian vote does Lieberman get? He'll certainly win the Russian vote, but he'll need other groups to finish very well.

Does Bibi collapse, as seems possible, or does he somehow pull out a victory, despite his last minute nosedive. Can he still win with an embarrassing embrace from Yuval Rabin, Yitzhak's son, who still said he was voting for Labor?

Israel's polls close at 10 pm in Israel, 3 pm in the eastern US, and 12 noon in the western US.  Be skeptical of early returns; it won't be over until it's over. In 1996 when most Israelis went to bed thinking that Shimon Peres had been elected; they woke up to Bibi.

Uncertainty is likely to reign late into the Israeli night.  Beware of early pundits declaring results.