Time To Reevaluate The Blockade?

Since June of 2007 when Hamas took control of the Gaza Strip from Fatah, Israel has more or less imposed a total blockade on the territory for all non-humanitarian items. In effect, Israel prevents imports that could have any potential military use, be it offensive or defensive. This includes:

Sweeping restrictions on the import of industrial, agricultural and construction materials; the suspension of almost all exports; and a general ban on the movement of Palestinians through Erez, the only passenger crossing to the West Bank.

Control of the Gaza Strip has changed Hamas. For all intents and purposes, Hamas is now a governing body, responsible for the livelihood of the populace under its control as well as myriad social services, infrastructure requirements and foreign liaison.

As the de facto governing body of Gaza, Hamas does not want to allow the chance for alternative parties to come to power. As demonstrated in the Rafah mosque uprising a few days ago and the successful Fatah conference in Bethlehem a few weeks ago, there are definitely Palestinian challengers waiting in the wings. Specifically dealing with the Rafah incident, but also making a larger point, Nathan Brown of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace remarks:

"Because it is now so deeply entrenched in political power, and because of this recent cease-fire with Israel, Hamas is seen by some as endangering some of its ideological credentials," says Brown. "This recent crackdown may play into a growing feeling that Hamas is no longer a resistance movement, but a government set on keeping both its power and keeping things fairly quiet with Israel.

While Hamas has consolidated its political power, it has also done the same in the commercial sphere. It has made major inroads into the Gazan business community at the expense of pre-existing businesses that have been severely damaged in the unfolding conflict or went under from a lack of income. This effort is buttressed by the various revenue streams Hamas has tapped. As Erin Cunningham in the Christian Science Monitor elaborates:

Hamas and its associates have been using their control of smuggling tunnels, money changing, and tax revenue to buy prime tracts of land and buildings across Gaza, particularly along the enclave's main boulevards.

As Cunningham further noted, Hamas also levies a value added tax on all imports via the tunnels from Egypt (as well as protection fees to operate a tunnel) and taxes "luxury items like cigarettes at higher rates."

Let's take look at cement as an example of how Hamas maneuvers the blockade to its advantage. Cement is a crucial commodity needed to construct buildings and undertake infrastructure and development projects. In late July, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak approved a shipment of cement to be used for humanitarian purposes. In particular, this was to be used for rebuilding a damaged flour mill, sewage treatment plant and British cemetery for soldiers killed during WWI. But, Hamas siphoned off part of the 300 odd tons of cement so that it could be used for non-civilian purposes, i.e., bases and bunkers. So, Barak is now reconsidering/postponing all future shipments. Right now, non-Israeli cement in the Gaza strip is going for $65 a bag, before the blockade it was $5. Obviously market dynamics of supply and demand play a role in the price point. However, so too might the applicable Hamas kickbacks and taxes.

Lack of access to legitimate routes of trade, compounded with Hamas' exercise of control and taxation over the black market, stymie and stultify legitimate business interests. The blockade has effectively depressed the Gazan economy forcing numerous businesses to close and limiting production in existing ones. Inevitably, where there is a void it will be filled. Hamas and its associates and supporters have filled this deficit to their benefit. Gazan businessmen realize more than most the predicament they face. Notionally at least, as Gazan businessman Amr Hamad notes, they "are very keen on good relations with Israel, because for them, peace means money." While there is money in peace, there is also money in conflict. The businessmen of Gaza are struggling while black marketers and smugglers are thriving. And, the latter clearly represent a tax base for Hamas. 

In the face of widespread criticism, Israel has held tough on the need to cordon off the Gaza Strip from the outside world. From the Israeli perspective, the primary objective of the blockade is to weaken Hamas and not allow Hamas the means to strike Israel, be it with bombs, suicide bombers or others means. In contrast, on the West Bank, Israel has worked closely with the Palestinian Authority (PA). With the assistance of US General Dayton, the PA is slowly building a capable and disciplined security force. Israel has taken down roadblocks to allow for freedom of movement. Israel facilitated the arrival of numerous Fatah apparatchiks so the Fatah party conference in Bethlehem could take place. Israeli troops have also withdrawn from some major Palestinian population centers and there have been improved transportation links between the West Bank and Jordan. 

The carrots are being given to the West Bank and the stick is being applied to the Gaza Strip. In both cases the party in control, be it Fatah or Hamas, is strengthening its hand. Without a doubt Israeli actions have influenced these developments. Obviously Gaza and the West Bank are very different places. But that does not mean one cannot learn from what has been applied and worked in one area to the other. Simply put, Israel needs to reevaluate the blockade apropos its short term strategic objectives, which include maintaining its security and bolstering a legitimate and responsible Palestinian partner.

With respect to the second objective, in the aftermath of the Bethlehem conference Fatah is reinvigorated, and Iran, a prime sponsor of Hamas is still undergoing post-election disarray. This sets the stage and presents a moment of opportunity for a concerted effort by the US and Israel to support Palestinian unity talks. If these on-again, off-again talks move forward, and a viable Palestinian partner emerges, the pieces could be in place to consider modifying the blockade.

Even without a unity government, some Israelis are questioning the efficacy of the blockade. An Israeli government official recently told the BBC:

The blockade, which is currently under review, may inadvertently benefit Hamas - but pointed out that easing it might be taken as a victory for the Islamic movement.

Despite this apparent corollary between ending the blockade and Israeli loss of face, the Israelis retain the power and control over the borders of the Gaza Strip. Israel needs to look at the recent overtures from Hamas as a positive development. The waters are ready to be tested.