When Elephants Fight, the Grass Dies

Concern about the resignation of Palestinian Prime Minister Salam Fayyad (he'll almost certainly be back) is another example of the peace process community's inability to see the shape of the forest (and it's pretty nasty) because of the trees (and when it comes to  the Israeli-Palestinian situation, so are they). The reality is that hand-wringing over Fayyad's coming or going masks more fundamental problems with the current situation on the ground, which are far more debilitating, than the one over Fayyad's future, particularly with regard to assistance to Gaza and even the West Bank. The international community's passion for throwing money at the Israeli-Palestinian problem is understandable, especially in the wake of Israel's war in Gaza (what else can they do now?). Another donor effort may do wonders to make all of us feel better (having participated in half a dozen I know the feeling of accomplishment), but it covers up more disturbing trends that will limit the effectiveness of the assistance America and others want to provide.

First, Gaza isn't Europe after World War II. If I never hear about another Marshall Plan for the Palestinians and the Middle East, it will not be too soon. American policy in 1945 to rebuild Europe occurred against the backdrop of a Europe that was broken but exhausted and whose institutions could be rebuilt and transformed through European economic recovery because there was a foundation already laid.  Europe wasn't a free fire zone where even today the Israelis and Palestinians exchange violent tit for tats. Humanitarian aid, let alone economic reconstruction, let alone development can't be really effective where there's no stability or predictability.  And when there's no indigenous repository of authority with which the international community is prepared to deal. Frankly using aid to rebuild Palestine while trying to isolate and weaken Hamas will only weaken efforts to rebuild Palestine. Moreover, in the end Gaza recovery and long-term stability will depend not on doling out aid but on trade, job creation and creating real and sustainable economic life through an economy's life blood - the movement of people and goods on a rational and predictable basis.  What private sector companies in this economic and financial climate, even government donors, will want to invest in Gaza without assurances against closure or war? That they agreed to the numbers they did in Sharm-el-Sheikh is a testament to their commitment, faith or naïveté.

Second, even if a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas can be sustained (and written down) how long do you suppose it's going to last? The Gaza winter war was round one in a volatile game of chicken which shows almost no sign of abating. Hamas legitimacy rests on armed struggle. It needs a breather now and so do the Israelis. But to imagine that we've seen the end of this war is to believe in the peace process tooth fairy. And that means - to use the African proverb - when elephants fight, the grass dies. And the grass in this case tragically is Palestinians in Gaza, Israelis in border communities, and assistance efforts. Talk about throwing good money after bad. But on balance, I suppose there's a rough compensation here: America helped pay for the Israelis to blast a fair amount of Gaza; I guess it's only right that we help defray the costs to rebuild it. In short, without an effort to put the Palestinian humpty dumpty together again with a unified view of governance and negotiations as well as a coherent strategy to achieve Palestinian national aspirations, it's hard to see how there can be sustainable development in Gaza. And doing that is beyond the skill set of anyone I've talked to lately.

All of this nay saying of course doesn't buy much, and leads us in the end to a kind of paralysis; honest analysis tends to do that. And Salam Fayyad is a brutally honest man. Perhaps his resignation - contrived as it is - is his way of signaling his own frustrations with the contradictions of the international community's (read America and Israel) and with a situation that he knows is likely to get a lot worse before - as they say - it gets worse.