Winking and Blinking

Rarely in these hazy days that lead up to the "chagim," the Jewish High Holiday period, are major political maneuvers made. August brings the summer Knesset recess and a slowdown at government offices, quickly melting into the long season of repentance when routine comes to a stop and ordinary life is generally relegated to "acharei hachagim," after the holidays.  This is the time for stock-taking: Israelis examine the quality of their life, the performance of their government and the outlook for their future. New Year polls abound, such as this week's Steinmetz Peace Index.  The survey showed that 85% of Israelis trust the state to defend Israel against attack, while 72% believe the need to find a solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is urgent. Politicians hurry to host Rosh Hashana gatherings, to toast not only a hearty "L'chaim," but to take the pulse of their constituents and reinforce their political standing.

It is in this holiday mix of high preparations and low expectations that Prime Minister Netanyahu is trying to balance his ideological commitment to the settlement enterprise with the countervailing imperative of national responsibility, which compels his cooperation with the president of the United States. And so it was that this very week Defense Minister Ehud Barak approved 455 new building permits in the West Bank, just as Isaac Molcho and Mike Herzog, advisors of Netanyahu and Barak, were negotiating the parameters of a temporary construction freeze with President Barack Obama's special envoy, Senator George Mitchell.  The latter is due this weekend in Jerusalem, expecting to seal the deal.  But Mitchell arrives on the heels of yet another announcement of more building in East Jerusalem, this time 486 new housing units in Pisgat Ze'ev, part of the outer ring of Jewish neighborhoods surrounding Jerusalem.

Although Palestinian leaders are crying "foul," Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak has invited Netanyahu for a meeting on Sunday, providing ever-livelier background to the three-way Israeli-Palestinian-American summit that may or may not take place during the UN General Assembly, at the end of September.  Israelis are watching this rather confusing scene unfold.  In a critical frame of mind appropriate for the "Days of Awe," they are wondering who among these many players is blinking, and who is winking.

Here's the score so far: The right-wing is up in arms, claiming that Bibi has caved in to the Americans. Among Labor supporters, Barak is on the defensive, insisting that the 455 homes he approved for building are the last gasp before a period of no construction. Left-leaning Israeli pundits warn Obama not to allow Bibi to trick him into believing that he is really committed to a freeze. The Settlers' Council does not trust Bibi; they see the 455 new permits as "one big smokescreen." According to the settlers' Director-General Pinchas Wallerstein, "an absolute majority of these things already existed and already had permits." 

Peace Now trusts neither Bibi nor the freeze, claiming that "instead of promoting the peace process, the government is electing to build in the settlements... the freeze is only a tactical slogan, it has nothing to do with reality on the ground."  Even Likud Minister Moshe Kahlon is not taking the freeze too seriously because, as he boasted to Shalom Yerushalmi of Ma'ariv this week, "Both [he and Bibi] are in favor of strengthening the settlements.  All the rest is pyrotechnics."

One wonders what lies behind all of this pre-holiday activity. Netanyahu, with the help of Barak, is giving and taking with the same hand. While promising a six-month moratorium in the West Bank, Bibi has vowed not to stop a single Jewish stone from being set in Jerusalem, including the contentious E-1 area, where a symbolic cornerstone was ceremoniously laid this week.  When linked with Ma'ale Adumim, E-1 will effectively isolate East Jerusalem from the rest of the West Bank.  It's very hard to keep it all straight, but it's necessary to try.

Was it the intention of the American administration to bring Bibi to the brink by forcing a public settlement freeze, if only a partial "moratorium" or "reduction in construction" or however else you phrase it?  There are some who will say that Obama blinked first, and let Bibi squeeze Jerusalem and new building permits right out from under the freeze. Others will say that Obama's relentless pressure on Bibi to agree to a Palestinian state, as well as a freeze in settlement construction, was his first mistake.  The overload caused unnecessary tensions and distrust among Israelis.  Bibi's rivals in the Likud Party are up in arms, ranging from the relatively moderate Silvan Shalom to the outraged radical Moshe Feiglin, who have been organizing "Land of Israel Faithful" rallies and swearing allegiance to the anti-freeze crusade.

But this week, in a new twist for the New Year, luminaries on the political left have initiated a "Blue and White Peace" campaign to come to Bibi's aid.   Former generals Ami Ayalon and Amnon Lipkin Shahak, former head of the Shin Bet Yaacov Peri and Dalia Rabin, among others, have acknowledged Netanyahu's advancement of the diplomatic process, and offered their support. These opposition figures understand that at least for the next year and a half, Netanyahu will remain safely ensconced at the helm, having managed, earlier in the summer, to pass a two-year budget.  So the pertinent question, for now, is this: Can Netanyahu abide by a freeze commitment long enough for Obama to reinvigorate his game plan and polish his credibility among impatient Jews and Israelis?   

The Israelis are stressing the onus on the regional dimension.  Netanyahu expects Obama to reign-in nuclear Iran while opening up new commercial links between Israel and the Arab world.  At the same time, there is no escaping the critical need for Obama to make his own gestures to the Israeli people. He must reassure them that he remains absolutely committed to Israel's best national interests, and seeks a package that will not only ensure Israeli security against nuclear and terrorist threats, but will finally allow Israel to become a recognized reality in the Middle East. The President, as Israelis see it, must also underscore his determination to hold the Palestinians to their part in renewing negotiations and curbing incitement. Under such conditions, and with 72% of Israelis already eager for a political solution, Bibi should have no trouble selling this diplomatic initiative to both his unwieldy government and to the country at large.