Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

Red Light, Green Light: Establishing US Levers of Pressure on Iran

INSS Insight No. 1198, July 13, 2009

Statements made by US President Obama and Vice President Biden in the first week of July regarding the US position on Iran elevated in particular the issue of whether a green light had been provided to Israel for an attack on Iran. The immediate question of a possible green light was raised by Biden when he said in an interview from Iraq that the US cannot dictate to another country what they can and cannot do when they determine that they are existentially threatened. The issue was then put to rest when Obama absolutely denied that this meant the US was giving Israel a green light to attack. According to Obama, Biden had merely stated a "categorical fact": that the US cannot dictate to other states what their security interests are.

The Internal Conflict in Iran

INSS Insight No. 116, June 25, 2009

In a number of respects, the current internal conflict in Iran should be the source of much concern to the leaders of the Islamic regime. Demonstrations and riots erupt in Iran every few years, protesting primarily intervention by the regime in the life of the individual or the economic situation. However, in terms of the number of participants, the duration of the disturbances, the number of casualties, and the expression of anger and determination by the participants, recent events exceed all previous episodes since the 1979 revolution.

An Israeli View: A fleeting opportunity

Paradoxically, the Iranian crisis is producing two contradictory results for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The first clear outcome was the statement made by head of Mossad Meir Dagan last week. In a surprise move, Dagan dismissed the previous assessments of the Israeli intelligence community regarding Iran's nuclear program and stated that Iran's secret military program would mature only in 2014.

A Palestinian View: Weakening the Islamist

The recent dramatic developments in Iran have absorbed the world for many different reasons. The US administration is hoping for an Iranian leadership that Washington can engage with because this is necessary for the new American approach to the region. The Arabs, meanwhile, especially neighboring Arab countries, are hoping for a leadership in Iran that will be less aggressive and ambitious in influencing the Arab publics and inciting people against Arab governments.

An Israeli View: Less of a preoccupation

As a wave of ramifications and reverberations from Tehran washes across the Middle East, it is intriguing to consider how it may affect the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Precisely because we don't know when and how the unrest in Iran will end, these thoughts must be understood at this point as little more than informed speculation. Note that the protests in Iran remain within rather than against the regime itself. Hence no major change in Iran's orientation toward the Israeli-Palestinian conflict appears likely.

The Holocaust Syndrome

After more than sixty-one years, the Jewish people have still not wrested themselves free from the trauma of the greatest catastrophe caused by one nation to another: the Holocaust.   This is especially true today when we hear Iran's declarations about its desire to destroy Israel. While we must not ignore the dangers and risks that still threaten us, the time has come to shake off the Holocaust syndrome.

Arab Rulers Fear It Will Happen to Them Too

The unrest in Iran throughout the last week not only threatens to dismantle its own political system, but also awaken social protest among millions in the Arab world.  In particular, President Mubarak of Egypt is concerned about his upcoming meeting with Ahmadinejad at the conference of non-aligned nations and the prospects of the Iranian unrest triggering a similar situation in Egypt.

Smadar Peri in Yedioth Ahronoth:

The Outcome of Iran's Presidential Elections

INSS Insight No. 115, June 18, 2009

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's victory in Iran's presidential elections is in itself no surprise. The surprise lies both in the huge margin by which he defeated his main opponent, Mir-Hossein Mousavi, and in that he earned his victory in the first round of voting, although the impression in the final pre-election days was that Mousavi was garnering growing support in the cities. Nonetheless, Ahmadinejad had important political assets, and these netted him the victory.

Laura Rozen: Iran May Be About To Dump Ahmadinejad. Meanwhile, American and Israeli Neocons Hope Mahmoud Wins

Foreign Policy's Laura Rozen has a great piece on what might be happening in Iran. The madman could lose.