Barack Obama

US-Iran Negotiations: Simulation Exercise at INSS

Ephraim Asculai, Emily B. Landau, and Tamar Malz-Ginzburg

INSS Insight No. 154, December 29, 2009

Despite the tendency to denote any simulation exercise on security issues a "war game," the recent simulation designed and held at INSS did not focus on the option of a military attack. Rather, it developed the scenario of a bilateral US-Iranian negotiation over Iran's nuclear program.

Iran, China, and the Israeli Stick

INSS Insight No. 150, December 22, 2009

When President Obama met with the president of China in Beijing last month, he cautioned that he would not be able to block an Israeli attack against Iran much longer unless there is progress in the attempts to stop Iran’s nuclear program. This warning was intended to persuade China of the urgent need for additional sanctions against Iran. Yet even if the potential success of this warning is questionable, it raises questions about Chinese interests in Iran and the Middle East as a whole, about Israel's place vis-à-vis these interests, and about Jerusalem’s possible influence over Beijing.

A Palestinian View: A crucial but problematic triangle

For good but different reasons, their respective relations with the United States are of central and utmost importance to both Palestinians and Israelis.

As the US is the world's leading power, it is the most influential potential mediator between them. Israel is completely dependent for its overwhelming superiority on the near unquestioned military, economic and diplomatic support it receives from the US. The Palestinian Authority, meanwhile, is dependent on international support and international diplomacy, both shaped by the US.

An Israeli View: Criminal neglect

There can be little doubt that Israeli PM Binyamin Netanyahu won the first round of Israeli-Palestinian engagement with the Obama administration--and that Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas lost. Netanyahu executed a partial and problematic settlement construction freeze "balanced" by settlement provocations in Jerusalem and elsewhere. He was rewarded with US support for his readiness to open negotiations while his right-wing coalition stood behind him. Abbas misread American promises and assurances regarding the freeze and the Goldstone report.

An Israeli View: Dealing with Mr. Yes and No

Back in the days of Binyamin Netanyahu's first term as prime minister, more than ten years ago, he was satirized as Mr. Yes and No. For every "yes" he delivered to US President Bill Clinton or PLO Chairman Yasser Arafat, there was also a "no" or, if you like, a "yes" to the settlers and other opponents of the peace process. That appears to be where we are today, once again.

Crisis in the Palestinian Authority

INSS Insight No. 143, November 24, 2009

The failure of the American effort to restart the negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians over the final settlement has created a political crisis in the Palestinian Authority. On November 5, PA president Mahmoud Abbas announced that he does not intend to run in the general presidential and Legislative Council elections scheduled for January 2010. Abbas’ announcement may reflect a real political crisis liable to lead to the collapse of the PA, or a tactic designed to put pressure on the United States and Israel.

Netanyahu declares Israel will act unilaterally if Palestinians declare state

In a speech given at the Saban Forum in Jerusalem yesterday, Prime Minister Netanyahu announced that if the Palestinians unilaterally declare a state, Israel would also take unilateral acts. Stressing his interest in reaching a final agreement, he said:

There is no substitute for negotiations between Israel and the Palestinian Authority, and any unilateral attempt outside that framework will unravel the existing agreements between us, and could entail unilateral steps by Israel.

US attempts to assuage Palestinian concerns

Laura Rozen reported yesterday on a shift in the U.S. administration's statements on movements on the Israeli and Palestinian fronts toward renewing the peace process. She quotes Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Bill Burns as saying:

To Freeze or not to Freeze

President Obama’s moves on Israeli settlements seem a bit puzzling. For much of the year, the United States was pressing for a freeze. Then it seemed to let up a bit. At the United Nations on September 23, 2009, Obama called on the Palestinians “to end incitement against Israel.” But he did not call on Israel to freeze or end settlement expansion.

An Israeli View: From settlement freeze to baby steps

The Obama administration tried to jump start the Israel-Arab peace process and inject new energy into additional areas of US activity in the Middle East by instituting a settlement freeze in the West Bank. Regardless of the words Obama's people have chosen to soften the impact, this initiative has failed. The immediate fallout is the apparent resignation of Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen) and an inability to get final status negotiations moving again.